Three Buy-Lows, Sell-Highs for 2024 Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues

August 17, 2024

Alex Ciulla analyzes three buy-lows and sell-highs to consider moving from or adding to your squad. Consider adding or selling these players in order to get an advantage to your dynasty fantasy football teams!

There comes a time in every athlete's dynasty life cycle when they peak or valley in value. It's not always evident, though, as a player's perceived value can change instantly. I've touched on this before, but the trading landscape in dynasty has become somewhat of a "day trader's" market. It's not uncommon to have a player moved after a blow-up game or to buy low on one when they've been in a rut of bad performance. Other variables factor into these player situations -- team eco-system, underlying injuries, etc. -- so it's important to consider as much context as possible when assessing these candidates.

Your roster construction and likelihood of playoff contention should guide your decision-making throughout the season as you navigate the trading market. It's a bit overlooked, but knowing when to be a buyer or a seller is equally important as who you are buying or selling. Considering the direction of your team before conducting any blockbuster deals should be a routine that goes a long way.

Now is the time to transform your team into a contender or ensure you have a roster of studs for years to come. Below, I'd like to lock in three sell-high and buy-low candidates to help you do just that. Let's go ahead and get to it.

D.J. Moore, WR - Chicago Bears (Sell High)

D.J. Moore is coming off the most productive season of his career in 2023. Moore posted career-bests in receptions (96), yards (1,364), and touchdowns (9) as Justin Fields' go-to guy, working his way to a WR6 finish. There's no doubt Moore was electric last season, serving as the centerpiece of the Chicago Bears offense, but this year, it's hard to expect the same.

The leading WR for Chicago behind Moore last season was Darnell Mooney, but he finished with just 31 catches and 414 yards. The Chicago wideout will have much more target competition in 2024, though, with the additions of proven veteran Keenan Allen and young stud Rome Odunze. The Bears even upgraded their TE and RB rooms in Gerald Everett and D'Andre Swift. While Moore might still be his team's leading receiver, it's safe to assume he won't be the target-hog he was. Caleb Williams -- although highly touted -- is also unproven and throws another wrinkle into Moore's potential consistency. In fact, other things are working against him. It seems he overachieved a bit last year.

Moore's overall season line is quite impressive. However, if we dig a little deeper into the game logs, we can find some interesting data. In Weeks 5 & 17, he put together two monster games -- combining for 17 receptions, 389 yards, and four touchdowns. Those two games alone accounted for 29% of his yards and 28% of his 286.5 fantasy points. Sure, he might win you a week or two again this year, but his output on a week-to-week basis could be volatile.

Some DJ Moore highlights, just because?

Let’s roll. pic.twitter.com/4ToXtUOhiQ

— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) July 31, 2024

If any managers in your league still view Moore as a top-12 guy, he's worth shopping around. He will be a productive WR for the next few seasons, but his value may be at its highest coming off of a career year.

Kyren Williams, RB - Los Angeles Rams (Sell High)

It'd be an understatement to say that Kyren Williams came out of nowhere in 2023. In last year's fantasy drafts, the 2022 fifth-round pick was largely an afterthought, sitting at RB92 (No. 291 in ADP) as per Fantasy Pros, and it was Cam Akers (RB27) being drafted as the presumed RB1 in Sean McVay's offense. Williams missed some time due to an ankle injury -- his second in two years --, but scored 15 TDs in just 12 games while also leading the league with 95.3 rush yards per game. His value has adjusted since then, as he's now the RB7 off boards in startup drafts with an ADP of 16.

Was Kyren Williams the biggest surprise of the 2023 season?@kyrenwilliams23 | @RamsNFL pic.twitter.com/1KI7Basmnn

— NFL (@NFL) March 29, 2024

Williams took advantage of his opportunity and then some last season. Still, he's due for more serious competition to his workload with LA's acquisition of Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. I worry about Williams' ability to stay healthy for an entire season due to his stature -- 5--foot--9, 202 lbs -- and while Corum is an inch shorter, he does have 12 pounds on him. However, Williams could also cede work to Corum because he's the more explosive athlete. Not only did the Michigan alum run a faster 40-yard dash time (4.53), but his agility score of 10.94 is in the 94th percentile as per PlayerProfiler. Corum's impressive 27 bench-press reps puts him in the 93rd percentile there, too.

McVay hasn't had the same running back lead his offense in rushing since Todd Gurley did it from 2015-2018 (those were the days), and each year since then, the player we have projected as the backfield leader hasn't panned out. This might be the year it does, but with injury concerns, the drafting of a capable replacement behind him, and his meteoric rise in value, I'm good with moving Williams now. Try tiering down to a lesser RB with solid upside and getting a first-rounder or nice plus in return.

Trey McBride, TE - Arizona Cardinals (Sell High)

Trey McBride broke out with a ten-catch, 95-yard performance during Week 8 last year and only got better after Kyler Murray's return in Week 10. From then on, McBride was the TE4 in PPR leagues, amassing 55 receptions and 538 of his 825 yards. He was an excellent weekly option and was fed an inordinate amount of targets (66 over seven games).

Year 3️⃣ loading in the desert for @mcbtrey 🏜️🔥 pic.twitter.com/Wbdf3Php3h

— NFL (@NFL) July 22, 2024

The main worry here is that McBride is now teammates with one of the most highly-regarded WR prospects of all time in Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson proved to be an effective option late last season, too. Wilson will improve this year, and Harrison Jr. projects to be the Cards' WR1. In an upgraded offense, the third-year TE must vastly improve his efficiency to match his late-year run on a depreciated target share.

I typically fade the TE position in drafts that aren't tight end premium (TEP), and even then -- unless it's 1.75 PPR or higher I'm still fading them. The third-year Cardinal is the TE5 in ADP (No. 54 overall) and is sitting in a range of drafts with other fantastic players with juicy upside. Malik Nabers, Anthony Richardson, Tank Dell, and George Pickens are all hovering around him, to name a few. I'd prefer to have all four of those players in a vacuum ahead of McBride, and if any managers in your league view them as similar, I'd be happy to move him for them.

The Colorado State product should still be a productive fantasy asset at only 24 years old. However, he was a one-man show last season in the Cardinals' offense, and that is just no longer the case.  Additionally, I have more conviction that Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts will have more impressive seasons. Kincaid is going three picks before McBride, but Pitts is going more than a round later. If it's possible to get Pitts+ for McBride -- that's an easy smash.

Rashee Rice, WR - Kansas City Chiefs (Buy Low)

The Kansas City Chiefs offense was not what we expected last season. We had already seen Patrick Mahomes go through 2022 without Tyreek Hill, and it seemed not to affect him or their point totals. 2023 was a down year, though, and it appeared early on that the Chiefs' signal-caller would be bereft of a WR1 throughout the season. Enter Rashee Rice.

Rice was mainly quiet for the early portion of the year -- before Kansas City's bye week (Week 10) --  but turned it on after Week 11. From that point forward -- Weeks 12-17 --, he piled up 43 receptions, 518 yards, and three touchdowns. He was great during the playoffs, too, tacking on another 26 catches for 262 yards and a TD. In his last few weeks of 2023, he reminded me a bit of Amon-Ra St. Brown a few years back during his rookie season. His targets were consistent, and he was a go-to guy in the short to intermediate area with some nice YAC-ability.

Rice is cookin' once again 🍚@PatrickMahomes x @RiceRashee11 pic.twitter.com/oVrpo1kRAB

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) July 23, 2024

In an attempt to fix their offensive woes, Kansas City added Marquise Brown from Arizona and Xavier Worthy in the NFL Draft -- two speedy wideouts that project to stretch defenses and give Mahomes better downfield availability. Yes, the Chiefs have added more target competition for Rice, but that's not why he finds himself here in the "buy-low" section.

If you've been following the second-year WRs off-season, it hasn't been one for the books. He currently faces charges -- including aggravated assault -- after he and another driver of a speeding sports car caused a crash involving half a dozen vehicles on a highway in Dallas. If that wasn't enough, he was suspected of involvement in an alleged assault at a nightclub. Luckily for the former SMU WR -- he won't face charges for that.

Rice is currently a risky proposition because we expect him to face some disciplinary action from the NFL in the form of suspension. However, it's possible that the ruling does not come down on Rice in his second season. The 24-year-old recently had his trial pushed back to December 9th -- nearly the end of the season -- and while it's impossible to know exactly how this situation will proceed, the NFL typically waits to take action on a player until all legal proceedings have culminated. If that's the case -- Rice is being severely undervalued, as that would give him an excellent chance to play most of the season.

You can get Mahomes' likely primary target as the WR36 (78 overall) currently in start-ups, which is criminally low. Sans all of the off-the-field issues, Rice would easily be a 3rd-round pick. I've seen him traded in various deals involving players spanning multiple tiers. It might be a good idea to check in with the Rice manager and see how he's valued.

Kenneth Walker, RB - Seattle Seahawks (Buy Low)

There was speculation that Kenneth Walker would cede work to running back Zach Charbonnet when the Seahawks selected him in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Charbonnet isn't as good of a pure-runner as Walker, but he did out-receive him in college (75-to-19). Last season marked back-to-back years that Seattle drafted an RB in the second round.

The fear did not come to fruition, as Walker led this backfield in rushing yards, carries, rushing touchdowns, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. He out-snapped Charbonnet in nine games on the season, and that number likely would have been larger had he not missed Weeks 12-13 after leaving Week 11 just seven snaps in (abdomen). When Charbonnet took over as the lead back during those three weeks, he had his worst efficiency as a runner -- a paltry 154 yards on 48 attempts (3.2 yards per carry).

The second-year RB may eat further into K-9's passing work this season, though that wouldn't be enough to scare me away from him. Seattle is entering a new era this year regarding their offensive scheme. Ryan Grubb comes over after manning an impressive Washington Huskies offense the last two seasons, and there is a lot to like here. Grubb's offenses have passed prolifically over the last few seasons -- attempting no less than 554 passes since 2022. His offense (on paper, at least) minimally targets the running backs, as over the last two years, no Washington RB has caught more than 24 balls. In fact, while Grubb is known for his air-raid approach, his passing concepts are all built off of a strong run game and various blocking schemes.

Year 3️⃣ loading for @Kenneth_Walker9 and his jukes 😮‍💨🔥 pic.twitter.com/UsUmHFo8p8

— NFL (@NFL) June 14, 2024

Seattle's offense is exciting this year as we could see them run 11 personnel (three WRs, one TE, and one RB) at a high clip with their impressive WR corps. This would mean fewer stacked boxes for Walker to run into. Last season, he did so nearly a quarter of the time (23.7%). If Grubb will build his offense around his complex blocking schemes, then Walker is the best fit to do that. He's not even 24 years old yet and is the most explosive RB in this backfield. The former Michigan State running back is the RB17 in start-up ADP (46th overall), and that's clearly his floor. It's possible that you could get him for two second-round rookie picks, but I am okay with spending a first on him if I have to.

Jake Ferguson, TE - Dallas Cowboys (Buy Low)

Heading into 2023, there was uncertainty about who would replace Dalton Schultz in Dallas' offense as he moved further south to play with C.J. Stroud in Houston. In 2022, both tight ends Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot got to play in the Cowboys' offense, and both were selected late in fantasy drafts last year. The TE position has played a crucial role in Dallas all the way back to the Jason Witten era, and in 2023 -- Ferguson took the reins.

The third-year TE led all Dallas pass-catchers not named CeeDee Lamb in yards and receptions, and he scored a respectable five touchdowns en route to a 71-catch, 761-yard line. Brandin Cooks did lead Ferguson in TDs (8) and was a solid WR2 for Dallas last season, but he is now on the back-nine of his career (30 years old), and we can't expect him to continue playing at a high level for too much longer. This keeps Ferguson firmly at second in the pecking order as Dallas only deemed fit to "upgrade" its backfield with the addition of Ezekiel Elliot this off-season.

There's a ton to like about Ferguson, but what makes me so bullish on him is his red zone usage in 2023. He led all tight ends in targets inside the 20-yard line with 24 -- four more red zone targets than Travis Kelce and David Njoku. Dak Prescott attempted the fourth-most passes in the league last season and has an apparent chemistry with Ferguson. Another year of development and a lack of competition around him leads me to believe he could take another step forward this season. Currently, he is the TE9 in dynasty ADP (92 overall). Send a generic second-rounder for him in a trade and see if that's enough to get the deal done. You may be able to get him cheaper than that.

Jake Ferguson got UP!#TNFonPrime | @dallascowboys pic.twitter.com/ZH15wCFBxL

— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) December 1, 2023

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