August 12, 2021

Phil Goyette takes a look at deeper fantasy baseball dynasty hitter prospects, prospect sleepers that should be on your fantasy radars in deep dynasty leagues.

Welcome to the latest update where I highlight prospects that should be on your radar in deep dynasty leagues.

For "standard" dynasty leagues, we have RotoBaller's Premium Top 250 Dynasty Prospect Rankings, updated and maintained by our prospect guru Marc Hulet. But for you degenerates who participate in the deepest of dynasty leagues, you always need more of the next big thing. Therefore, I bring you...THE OUTSIDERS.

The Outsiders are MLB prospects currently outside RotoBaller's Top 250 Prospect Rankings. Each week, I will update rankings of players outside the Top 250 that should be on your radar for deep dynasty leagues and highlight some new players that could be showing up on the rankings in the future. My method is to use statistical analysis and in-game video looks of players to project what their future fantasy value could be at the MLB level.

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Overview

This week, I'm going to finally dip my toes into the lowest levels of minor league baseball. I have run estimated Barrel% and xwOBA numbers for each hitter with 30 or more PAs in the Dominican Summer League ("DSL"), Florida Complex League ("FCL"), and Arizona Complex League ("ACL").

These are more informal leagues than the leagues found higher up the minor league ladder. It is the first 'competitive' baseball that these players will see in their professional career. Because of the informal nature of the leagues, a lot of the performances contained herein should be taken with a grain of salt. Also, my estimators rely on flyball% and home run per flyball% rates as part of the component inputs. Those stats are based on eyewitness classification of batted ball type, and can be subject to bias and/or incomplete data.

That being said, I've looked over the data and stats and they seem reasonable enough to my eye. Also, there is little to no firsthand coverage of these leagues anyway. Especially the DSL, where Baseball America's Ben Badler is the only person to get firsthand live accounts of players from that area. A lot of the other public commentary on DSL players is simple rephrasing of Badler's notes. At least these estimators will give you a different perspective from that.

Estimated Barrel% is my proprietary quality of contact metric which estimates the percentage of batted balls that were Statcast Barrels. A full write-up on the metric can be found here.

Estimated xwOBA+ takes a hitter's Estimated Barrels, K%, and BB% and estimates his Expected Weighted On Base Average. Measures a hitter's total offensive production in a linear weights method for offensive events. You can read more on xwOBA here.

Here are the Top-20 hitters sorted by Estimated xwOBA in each of the rookie level leagues so far this season:

Dominican Summer League

Elian Rayo leads the charge. He's a Nicaraguan third base prospect that the Giants signed during the 2019 international signing period. Rayo's estimated xwOBA is being super inflated by an absurd 5:1 BB:K ratio so far in the DSL. That number is bound to fall, and his estimated xwOBA will fall along with it.

Abimelec Ortiz of the Rangers system is more intriguing than Rayo because of his 20.0% estimated barrel rate. Ortiz is an outfielder that played junior college ball at Florida Southwestern State JC. Here's a brief clip of Ortiz in junior college action courtesy of Perfect Game Florida:

The Yankees seem to have a pretty good track record with international players in this age group, so I am keeping my eye on Joel Mendez. Mendez is a Dominican LF prospect who is taking plenty of walks, hitting for good power (17.6% estimated barrel rate), and also has gone 5-for-6 in stolen base attempts.

Speaking of mining particular talent wells, Cleveland SS prospect Maick Collado has my attention as well. He's yet another switch-hitting international middle infield prospect in the Cleveland system. Here's a brief clip of him at the dish:

Ismael Padua is a big, physical catching prospect for the Rangers. An estimated xwOBA over .400 and a barrel rate over 12% has me intrigued.

Luis Pino, still on 17 years old, has me intrigued. He is a Cuban centerfield prospect that just signed with the Cardinals in April. The 14.1% estimated barrel rate for a kid this young is a real eye opener.

Anderson De Los Santos is another 17-year-old prospect catching my eye here. He's a shortstop prospect in the Orioles system that has shown a knack for both getting on base and hitting for power so far in the DSL. Here's a clip of him from the official Orioles player development account. You can see how physical his build is for a kid his age:

Diego Perez is listed at 6'3", 170 lbs. He's a left-handed hitting centerfield prospect in the Angels system. His 17.5% estimated barrel rate so far in the DSL has me taking note to make sure to watch him moving forward. He was a 2019 J2 signing.

Robert Lopez is an interesting catching prospect in the Cleveland system. He's still super young as well, as he won't turn 18 until January of 2022! Here's a bit of footage of him in action:

Arizona Complex League

I put a filter on the complex leagues, limiting the leaderboards to teeangers only:

Edgar Quero is a switch-hitting catching prospect for the Angels. He's walked as much as he's struck out this season (which the xwOBA estimator LOVES), and has shown a good feel for hitting for power too.

Owen Caissie was the Padres 2nd round selection in the abbreviated 2020 draft. The team then shipped him to Chicago in the Yu Darvish deal. Caissie has been excellent in the ACL this year. He's a large Canadian prospect that's likely destined for a corner outfield spot. I'm loving both the plate approach and the ability to hit for power.

Kevin Alcantara is another Cubs prospect off to a good start in the ACL this year. Alcantara came over to the Cubs in the deal that sent Anthony Rizzo to the Yankees. He's been a well-regarded prospect since signing with the Yankees for a $1 million bonus as a 16-year-old. He's a lanky outfielder with room to fill out. He's shown good power, speed, and plate approach in his nascent professional career.

Luis Rodriguez was another well-regarded J2 signing when the Dodgers landed him for a $2.67 million bonus in the 2019 class. He's an 18-year-old outfielder that's listed at 6'2", 175 lbs. I'd say his frame has developed more good weight from those listed specifications. His 15.2% estimated barrel rate in the ACL so far is beautiful. You can see from his excellent bat speed in the below clips why he's able to hit the ball so hard:

Junior Sanquintin is a switch-hitting prospect that I've liked since the Indians signed him back in 2018. He was originally signed as a shortstop, but he's since shifted to playing first-base primarily in the ACL, which isn't the greatest sign. That means his bat is going to have to carry him up the professional ladder. I think it can. I really like his combination of selectivity and his ability to generate power from a relatively simple setup.

Aeverson Arteaga is a shortstop prospect with a great physical frame. He's impressed observers of the Giants system with his performance so far in 2021. A 70% contact rate and a sub-10% walk rate has me a little cautious. However, he's a Giants prospect with good bat speed (go figure!) that can really pound the ball (there's a 106 mph exit velocity home run in the clip below):

Adael Amador is a Rockies prospect worth your time and consideration this year. He's a switch-hitting shortstop with good speed, some power, and a patient approach at the plate. He was a well-regarded prospect that signed for a $1.5 million bonus.

Florida Complex League

Marcos Cabrera you have my attention. The Yankees have long been one of the top investors in young international talent, and that provides them with a stream of up and coming prospects to replenish their farm system with when big trades happen. He was initially signed as a shortstop, but he's already moved over to third base. This is because his frame really projects to above average size and strength. There's a potential big time player here, and I'm loving the 17.8% estimated barrel rate in the FCL so far. Listen to the sound off the bat:

Emmanuel Rodriguez is really impressing in the FCL for the Twins org so far this year. He's been highly touted since signing a $2.5 million bonus with the Twins in 2019. As you can see from Tyler Spicer's comparison video below, he's already added a ton of strength to his frame. And he's still only 18....

Coby Mayo was the Orioles 4th round selection in the 2020 MLB draft as a Florida prep product. Mayo, 19, is extremely strong, getting the most out of his listed 6'5", 212 lbs frame. He's also been getting on base at an outstanding clip (.449 OBP) and is 6-for-6 in stolen base attempts. He's probably ready for full-season ball.

Mahki Backstrom's surface line looks terrible (.172 batting average), but the estimators think there's plenty more here worth monitoring. The lefty hitting Backstrom has legitimate MLB power, so be sure to keep him on your radar as he tries to work things out at the professional level.

Blaze Jordan has been promoted to Low-A Salem, where he's yet to make his debut. He was a third round pick in the 2020 draft, but there was a time that he was one of the most highly touted prep bats in his class. His 11.3% estimated barrel rate shows that there's plenty of power potential here, and he's still only 18 years old.

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