The King's Keeper Corner: Early QB Primer

Every week in the King’s Keeper Corner, we will get you prepared for roster decisions ahead from various perspectives. We will examine player values by position, look at specific performers and compare keeper selections. We will also directly answer your keeper questions. Pose your questions to me @scotteRotoEx on Twitter to get your answers in this column.

Where applicable, we will also explore dynasty league situations as well. It’s never too early to start preparing in any format. Many leagues that allow you to retain anywhere from one player to a full roster are unique and dynamic in their setups and rules structures.

This week, we will look at the quarterback position and who you should consider keeping based on their values, which includes potential penalties. The incoming rookie class will be less impactful in the short term at QB than running back or wide receiver. This is also true in dynasty leagues.

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Keeper Korner QB Primer

Tier One – Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes: As I have stated many times this offseason, Jackson is the most unique player in fantasy football. He gives you RB totals at the QB position and any regression will not be major. He was sixth in the NFL in rushing last season while also leading the league in TD passes. I would draft Jackson in the first round in a seasonal league and would consider him as a potential No. 1 keeper, most certainly as a No. 2 in leagues where there are no round penalties. He is worth a first-round keeper penalty in those formats.

Mahomes is simply the best pure passer in the game and a modern-day Dan Marino/Peyton Manning. I would consider him as a second keeper and he is worth consideration with any potential penalty. These QBs should be kept above all but the highest top-tier superstar RB/WRs, and Travis Kelce, if you have no round penalties.

The 2019 rushing leaders via NFL.com. Lamar Jackson was sixth, the next QB was 35th (Kyler Murray). 

Tier Two – Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson: Murray is an obvious dual threat on the rise and should be considered with a third keeper if you do not get round penalties. He is worth a third-rounder and below in formats with round penalties. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins has moved him up to the top of the keeper and dynasty value charts. He was also second at QB in rushing yards last season.

Despite the Seahawks being viewed as a run-first team, Wilson has been a top-three fantasy QB in two of the past three seasons, and the rise of DK Metcalf can help him stay near the top. Seattle might open up the passing game a bit more this season. I would consider retaining Wilson as a third keeper or with a third-round penalty or below depending on your other options. In close decisions between a RB or WR and a QB, I would lean to the skill position player.

Tier Three – Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson: Prescott has received little fanfare for finishing as the second-best QB in fantasy football last season. He easily set new career bests in passing yards (4.902) and TD passes (30). I would consider him as a pure third keeper or with a fourth-round penalty or below. Watson would have been in Tier Two had the Texans not traded Hopkins. I would consider him as a lower-end third keeper or with a fourth-round penalty or below.

Tier Four – Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees: Allen’s upside is obvious, as he led all QBs in rushing TDs last year (nine) and was third in yards. He was also last among starters in completion percentage. The passing can improve with the acquisition of Stefon Diggs, though. He is worth a fourth keeper or a penalty of round five or below. For both keeper and dynasty purposes, you must remember you want to win this season. Ryan and Brees should be kept for another season if you don’t sacrifice other top skill position players.

Tier Five – Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz. Matthew Stafford: Rodgers finished as QB9 last year as the Packers finally started to exhibit a more balanced offense under Matt LaFleur. But he remains capable of performing near a top-five level. He can be considered as a fourth keeper or for a round-five penalty or below if your other choices are not definite starters.

Health is the obvious concern with Wentz, who can also play close to an elite level at his best. Last year, he became the first Eagles QB to ever throw for 4,000 yards. Like Rodgers, he can be considered a fourth keeper or with a round-five or below penalty. There is certainly some upside for Wentz, and he could turn out to be a value. In dynasty leagues, he may be a good trade target as some fantasy owners are pessimistic on his reliability. Just make sure you roster a respectable backup.

Stafford threw 19 TD passes in only eight games last season and may have to carry the Detroit offense again. He is worthy of the same value tags as Rodgers and Wentz and ranks just behind them overall here.

Tier Six – Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady -  Tannehill seemed like a handoff machine during the NFL playoffs, but he scored 18-plus points in all but one game from Weeks 7 through 16 during the regular season and can be a quality fantasy starter.

Ryan Tannehill's 2019 game logs from Weeks 7 through 16 via NFL.com. Note that he threw less than one TD pass just once during this span. 

Roethlisberger had arguably his best season in 2018 and could return with a big splash. He may be able to help you win this year, and the same might be possible with Brady, who will be working with the best pair of WRs in the NFL and a returning Rob Gronkowski. Brady finished as QB12 last year and is worth one more season of being on your roster with an improved supporting cast in Tampa Bay.

These may be the final keeper options that you can feel somewhat comfortable with as starters for 2020. They can be retained in leagues where you have multiple keepers and are set well at other positions. You can likely keep these three with lower round penalties rather easily and they can also start for dynasty teams this year.

Lower Considerations

Tier Seven – Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones -  The Browns are dedicated to building around Mayfield, and Jones flashed a lot of promise last season. You cannot go with either of them as a pure starter for 2020 but both could be top-12 QBs for fantasy teams a year later. They are worth lower round penalties but you may have to draft a bridge starter ahead of them.

Philip Rivers could bounce back with the Colts this season and if you incur just a penalty in the final rounds, take the chance. … Jared Goff finished just outside of the Top 12 at QB last year and is a respectable choice for a final rounds penalty. … Kirk Cousins is a decent streamer but the Vikings ran the ball third-most in the league last year in terms of ratio and could be run-heavy again this year. … Jimmy Garoppolo was up and down last year, but if you only incur a final round penalty to keep him, improved production may come in the future. … Cam Newton is a nifty one to think about for final round penalties. If he ultimately can start somewhere new there are intriguing prospects for a career revival.

Strategical Summary

Jackson and Mahomes are top keepers. Tier Two and Three QBs should be considered depending on your other options. They should not be retained over other superstars but must be in the mix to be among your final selections to retain in the three to four keeper range. The Tier Four QBs can be ideal complements to your other stars, but not kept over them. Tier Five QBs can exceed expectations but are not prime selections to retain. Tier Seven options are promising for the future but cannot start now.

Like in any other fantasy format, QB is deep and RBs and WRs close in value should usually get the nod over keeping the passer. But QBs in the first three tiers cannot be thrown back into the player pool without strongly mulling it over. In some cases, the QB1 may be worth retaining over a WR3 or lower-level RB2. Each situation, of course, is unique. Tweet your questions to me for custom answers in this space.

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