The Cut List (Week 3) - Time to Let Go?

August 1, 2020

Nate Green's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 2 of the season.

You already didn't have very many Marlins on your fantasy roster, right? It's still early enough that most of your cuts are going to be clearly marginal players who will miss several days due to postponed games.

But what about those tougher calls? There's a bit more information out there than there was last week. Let's see what it means.

Usual reminders: Recommendations are for mixed leagues -- redraft, unless otherwise noted, as keeper leagues have their own rules. Recommendations in one league size obviously apply to smaller leagues. You can also feel free to drop a shallower suggestion in a deeper league, but the dividing line is generally there for a reason. And, as usual, you can find ideas on how to replace your cut candidates at the Waiver Wire Pickups List/App.

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10-Team Cut Candidates - Shallow Leagues

Byron Buxton (OF, MIN)

Despite only having about two full seasons worth of career at-bats, Buxton has been around so long that players who retired when debuted are now eligible for the Hall of Fame, and it feels like he's been a relevant fantasy name for as long. You don't need me to recap the health issues, and perhaps not last season's 111 wRC+ breakout either (he was okay in '17).

Well the health issues already cropped up again, and the Twins lineup is strong enough that he has hit ninth when playing. (He debuted, sat the next day, and played again the next, hitting ninth in both starts.) In shallow leagues, is the ride worth it?

Amed Rosario (SS, NYM)

We picked on Rosario quite a bit last year only for him to end up hitting .287 with 15 home runs and 19 steals. This year, he's responded by chasing more pitches (swinging outside the zone up 46% from 38%), hitting more grounders (59% of batted balls instead of 48%), and failing to take a base on balls.

The advantages are that he has a premium lineup spot. (Actually, that's one advantage, singular.) If the struggles continue, however, his stay at the leadoff spot may be short-lived, and if he returns to the bottom third of the order, he wouldn't just be a possible cut in shallow leagues anymore.

Khris Davis (DH, OAK)

It's unfortunate, but the Davis train may be over. Yet to see his first hit in 2020, the struggles he faced in 2019 seem even more real now. A 92.5 mph exit velocity in 2018 became 90.2 last year and is 88.5 so far this season. Additionally, he's already sat two A's games in 2020 and has nothing but utility eligibility. That spot has better uses.

12-Team Cut Candidates - Deeper Leagues

Kevin Newman (MI, PIT)

Newman hit .308 last year in an unexpected breakout in 2019. Looking at the preseason projection systems, it would also be unexpected for Newman to keep it up in 2020, with his wRC+ projections ranging from 80-89. They had a batting average range of .266 to .279, but he is now just 1-for-16 to begin the year.

Although he remains in the top two spots in the lineup when he does play, he has already sat for two games. Even if he does hit .270 this year, that's nearly 50 points of batting average lost, and the modest power/speed combo becomes less useful, while the already low support from a Pittsburgh offense will produce even fewer R+RBI.

Robbie Ray (SP, ARI)

Ray has drawn a couple of tough opponents so far this season, the Padres and Dodgers. It hasn't gone well, with 18 base runners--including nine walks--allowed in just 8 1/3. Unfortunately, it won't get any easier with the Astros next up on the schedule and the start after that coming at Coors Field. In shallow leagues it may be better to drop him than to sit him for two straight starts.

Even though Ray got somewhat unlucky last year with a 3.76 xFIP behind his 4.34 ERA, he was nonetheless projected for a mid-4's ERA this season. He's a one-stat pitcher; strikeouts will be there, but are the struggles worth it?

Mike Fiers (SP, OAK)

As with Rosario, this space has never been a Fiers fan; last year, despite a 5.19 xFIP, the collapse never came and he managed a 3.90 ERA. His first start of 2020 was not encouraging, with zero strikeouts and four runs allowed in four innings. He's a year older now too, 35, and it's just too risky a profile. Even if success comes, it won't come with strikeouts in an era where the K is king.

14-Team Cut Candidates - Deep Leagues

Brett Gardner (OF, NYY)

Gardner had one of last year's flukiest performances, homering 28 times despite barreling up just 15 baseballs. Did he perfect the abuse of Yankee Stadium's right field? Not really with only 12 of his home runs coming at home.

Gardner is now 0-for-11 with 7 strikeouts to start 2020. He's missed two games, not counting the Phillies postponements. He hit fifth in the season opener but not higher than eighth since. It's only 12 plate appearances (counting his walk), but given last year's mirage, it's not too early to look elsewhere in most leagues.

John Means (SP, BAL)

Means, who had a 3.60 ERA on a 5.48 xFIP last season, is somewhat a more extreme Fiers. The differences aren't good: Means is on a worse team and in a worse ballpark for pitchers. But the main idea is that there aren't enough strikeouts in the profile, leaving this kind of pitcher to survive on the edges. Although it was against the Yankees, Means showed no signs of doing that in his first start. He gets the Nationals next.

Keeping Means means trusting last year's 3.60 ERA in spite of all the countervailing factors. It's best to pass.

Mike Foltynewicz (SP, ATL)

Still on a team in just under half of Yahoo leagues, Foltynewicz's recent demotion should be the end of his presence on rosters. (Admittedly, it may already be in the category of people still paying attention.) His disastrous opening day start (4 BB, 3 HR, 6 R in 3.1 IP) was enough for the Braves as it came on the heels of a 4.97 FIP in just 21 starts last season after a very successful 2018. Alas, good things sometimes come to ends.

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