RADIO
In recent seasons, it feels as though the NFL is becoming more and more pass-heavy with each passing – ha! – year. This 2022 NFL season has certainly given off some different vibes, however. Last year, there were nine quarterbacks who had a PPG average of 20 or more. Through five weeks, there are just four such quarterbacks. When we look at the top-12 QBs in PPG average, it gets even more bizarre.
Names such as Jared Goff, Geno Smith, Carson Wentz, Tua Tagovailoa, and Zach Wilson are currently all top-12 in PPG. Full disclosure, Wilson has only played two games, but the point still stands. No Kirk Cousins, Tom Brady, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, or Matthew Stafford. Because of that, we've had some very highly recognizable signal callers grace us with their presence on this list and this week's edition is no different.
As is every week, understand no player has to be cut if it doesn't make your team or your bench better, but if there is a player you like on the waiver wire, sometimes difficult decisions must be made. In that case, these are some players you can safely cut for your fantasy roster. The first five weeks of the season have seen some very big names struggle and disappoint, so don't be surprised by some of these incredibly high rostership numbers.
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Quarterbacks to Cut for Week 6?
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – 80.5% Rostered at ESPN & 86% at Yahoo!
Matthew Stafford's inclusion on this list isn't all his fault, even though there's no denying he's not playing well. However, his offensive line is absolutely atrocious. According to PFF, he's been pressured 75 times, which is the fourth-highest in the NFL. He's been sacked 21 times, no QB has been sacked more. The offensive line, from right tackle to left tackle, is a turntable and it's negatively affecting their whole offense.
They cannot run the football. They're 32nd in rushing yards and 31st in yards per attempt. Opposing defenses aren't at all threatened by Cam Akers or Darrel Henderson and this creates a domino effect that hinders the whole offense. Last year, Stafford's yard per attempt average was 8.1 and this year it's dropped to 6.9. His intended air yards per attempt last year was 8.5 and that's all the way down to 6.5.
The only QBs with fewer passing points per attempt than Matthew Stafford (0.307) with multiple full games played...
Baker Mayfield (0.304)
Mac Jones (0.304)
Mitch Trubisky (0.260)— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) October 10, 2022
There's absolutely no upside to this offense right now. They can't threaten a defense down the field because their offensive line cannot maintain their blocks long enough. Play action doesn't work because they can't run the football. Allen Robinson looks completely washed, which is forcing Stafford to rely on Tyler Higbee as his second-best pass-catching weapon.
Fantasy managers should expect the Rams to get better, but this offensive line isn't getting fixed. It's going to be an issue all year and right now, they look completely lost. Based on where we were in the offseason, this is crazy, but streaming quarterbacks is going to be far more effective than starting Stafford each week.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos – 90.8% Rostered at ESPN & 91% at Yahoo!
Russell Wilson is just QB17 in terms of PPG average with a lowly 14.9 average. He has three games with fewer than 12 points. All of that "production" was with starting running back, Javonte Williams and starting left tackle, Garrett Bolles who are now both out for the season. They aren't the only Broncos dealing with injuries, however.
Broncos’ QB Russell Wilson played Thursday night against the Colts, and three quarters of the previous game against the Raiders, while battling a partially torn lat near his right shoulder, according to sources.https://t.co/HBBoet8LX5
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 8, 2022
Wilson has been struggling mightily before but adding a partially torn lat on his throwing shoulder on top of that is certainly going to play a role. The Denver offense is currently 31st in points scored and the issues are all over the place. They're just 19th in passing yards and 24th in passing touchdowns. They have just one game with more than 17 points scored.
EPA per play from 2021-22 (per @benbbaldwin)
Geno Smith 0.209 (5th among QBs)
Russell Wilson 0.074 (21st)Min. 250 plays
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) October 10, 2022
It's absolutely incredible that Aaron Rodgers was on the Cut List last week and now we add Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson, but here we are. At this time, fantasy managers are better off embracing streaming their quarterback position.
Running Backs to Cut for Week 6?
Chase Edmonds, Miami Dolphins – 80.2% Rostered at ESPN & 89% at Yahoo!
Chase Edmonds was a favorite of many fantasy football analysts this offseason, myself included. The Miami offense, with the addition of Tyreek Hill, looked to be an exciting, up-and-coming unit. That much has been true. It looked as though Edmonds would be their No. 1 running back, based on the contract he received and his age. All of the signs were pointing up. Then Week 1 came and while he struggled to produce as well as fantasy managers were expecting, the role and the utilization were everything we were hoping for. As long as that continued, the points would come and that's where the problem comes in.
Chase Edmonds' offensive snap %s have decreased each consecutive week:
Week 1: 63%
Week 2: 51%
Week 3: 44%
Week 4: 28%
Week 5: 15%🥶🥶🥶
— David Zäch (@DavidZach16) October 10, 2022
The role and his utilization have been getting worse and worse and worse. Look at those snap counts above. That's absolutely disgusting. To make matters even worse, Myles Gaskin actually got more playing time in Week 5. His touches, which started at 16 in Week 1, have dropped to 6, 7, 7, and finally just 1 in Week 5. Unfortunately, fantasy managers cannot even lean on the irrational coaching aspect. If that were true, at least there would be some hope Edmonds would regain his role, but Edmonds didn't lose it because of irrational coaching. No, Edmonds has just been bad.
RBs with the lowest Rush Yards Over Expected per Attempt (per @nextgenstats):
Chase Edmonds -2.08
Najee Harris -1.06
Cam Akers -0.98
Michael Carter -0.8
Alexander Mattison -0.78Other notables:
Joe Mixon -0.49
Melvin Gordon -0.45
Ezekiel Elliott -0.41— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) October 10, 2022
Even though the past few weeks, he lost his 1A role, at least fantasy managers could at least tell themselves he's still a good handcuff to a running back, Raheem Mostert, who hasn't been able to stay healthy, but now we have to wonder... is he even that? With Gaskin playing ahead of him, if Mostert did get hurt, it looks like it would just be another timeshare.
Wide Receivers to Cut for Week 6?
Josh Reynolds, Detroit Lions – 25% Rostered at ESPN & 31% at Yahoo!
Josh Reynolds was a savvy pickup for fantasy managers the past two weeks with Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Chark banged up. Not only that but D'Andre Swift was also held out of the last two contests. To Reynolds' credit, he's taken advantage and his rostership might climb following a productive past two weeks. However, fantasy managers should ignore the temptation and if they were savvy enough to pick him up prior to Week 4, they can safely cut ties with him now.
For starters, the Lions have their bye week in Week 6, and following that, they'll have Swift, St. Brown, and Chark back on the field. In Weeks 1 and 2, Reynolds posted target shares of 8.3% and 8.8%, respectively. That did balloon up to 27% in Week 3 with St. Brown getting hurt. During the first two weeks of the season, Reynolds earned just six targets and was firmly fifth on Jared Goff's target hierarchy. That's the status he's going to revert back to once the Lions return to action in Week 7.
Picking up Reynolds two weeks ago proved to be an excellent move, cutting him now will be the same.
Tight Ends to Cut for Week 6?
Tyler Conklin, New York Jets – 49.5% Rostered at ESPN % 54% at Yahoo!
Tyler Conklin season was fun while it lasted, but I'm here to tell you that it's over. It's done now. During the first four weeks of the season, Conklin played at least 79% of the snaps in every single game with a high of 100%. In Week 5, that number dipped all the way down to 68%. In fact, he played one less snap than C.J. Uzomah. Uzomah had been hampered by an injury early in the season, which allowed Conklin a full workload, but no longer.
It wasn't just the fact that Uzomah played more, fantasy managers could handle that if Conklin kept his receiving role, but that didn't happen either. In Week 5, Uzomah ran 12 routes to Conklin's 7. Uzomah also had 2 targets to Conklin's 1. Fantasy managers shouldn't worry too much about the singular target. At the tight end position, that's going to happen, but it's the utilization that should have fantasy managers ready to move on.
His 31.8% route participation rate in Week 5 is a far cry from the 79.4% it was at in Weeks 1–4. That number indicates it's virtually impossible for Conklin to provide fantasy managers with the same value he did early in the season. The playing time and routes run is just one part of the problem, albeit a very big one.
Jets target share the past two weeks with Zach Wilson:
Corey Davis- 20%
Garrett Wilson- 18%
Breece Hall- 15%
Elijah Moore- 15%
Tyler Conklin- 11%
Michael Carter- 9%
Braxton Berrios- 4%
CJ Uzomah- 4%
Jeff Smith- 4%— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) October 10, 2022
The quarterback change has altered the target hierarchy in New York, as well. In Weeks 1–4, Conklin was No. 2 in target share, but in the first two weeks with Wilson behind center, he's dropped to fourth on the list. That isn't likely to change either. It was the expectation that Wilson would likely target his receivers more and that's held true through two weeks. It was a fun ride while it lasted, but it's over now.
On The Hot Seat
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams – 85.7% Rostered at ESPN & 86% at Yahoo!
If you go back up to the Chase Edmonds section and check out the last tweet, you'll find another name on that very unfortunate list – Cam Akers. He has three weeks with under 5 points and just one game where he's broken double-digits in half-PPR scoring and that one week was just 10.1 and it required a touchdown. There's no denying that Akers has been terrible in the young season. That isn't all his fault, as we've already touched on the terrible offensive line, but that's unlikely to change.
The only reason Akers finds himself on the hot seat as opposed to an outright cut is because of the number of opportunities he's received in the past two weeks. He's averaging 12.5 touches per game since Week 1. He's done absolutely nothing with those touches, having gone over 50 yards on just two occasions. The Rams have given their RBs 31 carries in the last two weeks and Akers has handled 20 of them. Due to Akers still handling the vast majority of the carries, he's still worth holding onto for fantasy managers, but time is running out. The volume is okay, but not great.
Darrel Henderson is still handling the vast majority of receiving work for the Rams, which means Akers needs to earn his keep on his rushing stats and touchdowns. He's averaging just 3 YPC and the Rams are 29th in scoring, so he's most certainly fighting an uphill battle. However, it's still likely worth keeping the primary ball carrier on a Sean McVay team on their roster.
Elijah Moore, New York Jets – 76.6% Rostered at ESPN & 72% at Yahoo!
Elijah Moore found himself in the hold category not too long ago, a sign of respect for what he did as a rookie, but now that we're five weeks into the new season, it's fair to start wondering if Moore is ever going to be someone fantasy managers can trust in their starting lineups. There hasn't been a single week where Moore has finished a week of football with a target share higher than 20%. He has three weeks with a target share lower than 12.5%.
Notable "valued" WR's below 20% market share through 5 weeks (players who did not miss chunks of a game):
Terry McLaurin (16.2%)
Elijah Moore (14.4%)
Allen Robinson (12.1%)These are definitely players you need to be worrying about.
— Scott Connor (@CharlesChillFFB) October 10, 2022
In the first four weeks of the season, Moore played the most snaps and ran the most routes among all Jets' receivers, but that changed in Week 5. Corey Davis played more snaps and ran more routes than Moore, which is another step in the wrong direction. If fantasy managers feel the need to cut Moore, he's given them plenty of reasons to do that, but this is still a very talented player.
Hold
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans – 95.6% Rostered at ESPN & 93% at Yahoo!
Fantasy managers may be getting fed up with Brandin Cooks' modest scoring outputs this season, but that isn't a reason to make any rash decisions. He's only scored more than 10 half-PPR points this season and just one game where he's scored more than 15. He also has two games with under 5 points. That's certainly not the resume of someone fantasy managers are going to be rushing to put into their starting lineups, but should he be cut? Absolutely not.
Wide receivers with a 20%+ target share in all five weeks of the 2022 NFL season:
- Cooper Kupp
- A.J. Brown
- Tyreek Hill
- Brandin Cooks
- Deebo Samuel
- Drake London
- DK Metcalf
- DJ Moore
- CeeDee Lamb— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 9, 2022
Davis Mills, the Houston Texans' quarterback has unfortunately taken a large step backward and that's negatively affected Cooks' fantasy output in a big way, but this is still a player who is averaging 8.4 targets per game, has a 25.8% target share, and a 28.8% air yard share. On top of that, he also boasts a 60% end zone target share. That kind of utilization does not belong on your waiver wires, especially for a player who has such a long history of excellent fantasy value. You may be frustrated with Cooks right now, but his volume still makes him a really good bench player for bye weeks and potential injuries.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers – 95.4% Rostered at ESPN & 92% at Yahoo!
Many fantasy managers, myself included, thought Baker Mayfield could give DJ Moore what he hasn't had yet – competent quarterback play. You might be laughing, but Mayfield threw for the most passing touchdowns as a rookie at the time and in 2020 had 26 touchdowns and just 8 interceptions. His 2021 season was marred by injuries, a dislocated shoulder, and torn shoulder labrum. Unlike Sam Darnold, he had shown the ability to at least be competent. And that's where the positive vibes end because Mayfield has been terrible. In fact, for years fantasy managers have said that Moore is QB-proof. Well, apparently he's not Baker Mayfield proof.
While fantasy managers shouldn't expect P.J. Walker to take Moore to the heights I optimistically projected on Moore with Mayfield, it's very likely going to be a positive for Moore and the Carolina offense.
DJ Moore splits when PJ Walker has graced the field... pic.twitter.com/7k0PMKpkj7
— Tom Strachan (@NFL_TStrack) October 10, 2022
Moore still has excellent utilization metrics and it presents a scenario where Moore could yet provide backend WR2 value, or at the very least, WR3 value. He has a 24% target share and is averaging 7.4 targets per game. He has a 66.7% end zone target share and a 35.1% air yard share. With those elite utilization metrics, the quarterback play doesn't need to be great for Moore to be good, it just can't be atrocious, like it has been. The quarterback and coaching change alone should have fantasy managers holding. After all, it can't get any worse, but then there's this...
Several #NFL teams have called about #Panthers DJ Moore, per @FOXSports
— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) October 10, 2022
It's unlikely Moore is traded, but on the off-chance that he is traded, no matter where he goes, his value will undoubtedly go up.
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