RADIO
Fantasy managers have officially made it through two of the worst bye weeks of the NFL season, but with the injuries piling up, things won't get any easier.
We're officially in the second half of the season and fantasy teams are starting to gear up for the playoff stretch. Now is not the time to be afraid to make big moves.
We can't touch on every cuttable player, especially for every league size, but we'll cover some of the most cuttable players entering Week 10. As always if you have any specific questions, give me a follow @RobFFSlayer and shoot me a message.
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Quarterbacks to Drop for Fantasy Football
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – 68% Rostered
Yes, Matthew Stafford was really good last year. Yes, the Rams won the Super Bowl. Yes, Cooper Kupp is still on the team and no, he’s not injured. Absolutely none of that matters. Seriously, none of it. It doesn’t matter that Odell Beckham Jr. might sign with the team. He won’t by the way, but it wouldn’t matter if he did. This offense is fundamentally broken.
It’s not Stafford’s fault. At least, not entirely. This offensive line is one of, if not the worst unit in the NFL. Last season, he averaged 8.1 yards per attempt. In his last season with the Lions, he averaged 7.7 yards per attempt. That number is down to 6.8 this season.
In his first season with the Rams, he averaged 8.5 intended air yards per attempt. It was even higher in his last season with Detroit at 8.7. That number has plummeted to 6.3 this year. Among quarterbacks with at least five games of action this season, his 6.3 average ranks 31st.
According to Pro Football Reference, Stafford is tied for fifth for the shortest amount of pocket time this season with just 2.0 seconds. That is the number of seconds the quarterback was in the pocket between the snap and a pass, or the collapse of the pocket. He’s been sacked the third most this season. This pressure is negatively impacting Stafford’s ability to push the ball down the field. Without those plays downfield, Stafford has been unable to generate the big plays that made him so valuable last season.
He has just one game with more than one passing touchdown and just one game where he hasn’t turned the ball over. His yards per game average has dropped by more than 45 per game and his touchdown per game average has been more than cut in half, going from 2.41 last year to just 1 per game in 2022.
Fantasy managers holding onto Stafford and hoping for a switch to be flipped are going to be disappointed. This isn’t a Stafford problem, although his play may not be necessarily helping the situation. This is an offensive line problem and it’s not one that is going to be fixed this season. Stafford can safely be cut as he’s averaging just 12.7 PPG, which ranks QB27.
Running Backs to Drop for Fantasy Football
Eno Benjamin, Arizona Cardinals – 70% Rostered
If you roster James Conner, you might feel the need to hang onto Eno Benjamin, however, if you're not a fantasy manager with Conner on your roster, Benjamin can be safely dropped. In Conner's first game back after missing three games, the Cardinals wasted absolutely zero time easing him back in.
#Cardinals Week 9 RB snap rates:
James Conner - 71%
Eno Benjamin - 27%
Keaontay Ingram - 2% https://t.co/Sr5dVVKmqP— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 7, 2022
If there was any hope that Benjamin might have some standalone value for a few weeks as the Cardinals gradually work Conner back in, those hopes were dashed immediately. Conner played the second-highest snap percentage of his 2022 season. While Benjamin might still home some handcuff value, after his three-week audition there are even questions about just how much value he has in that role.
In his first game without Conner, in a smash spot against the Seattle Seahawks, Benjamin flopped and flopped hard. He finished with just eight half-PPR points on 18 touches. The volume was excellent. The production, not so much. He followed up that dud of a performance by breaking out for 113 yards on 17 touches en route to 21.3 half-PPR points. In his last game before Conner's eventual return, Benjamin received 13 touches for just 55 scoreless yards.
Because of his solidified role as the Cardinals' No. 2 running back, Benjamin is not a must-cut especially if you're in larger leagues, but if you're in an 8–10 team league, Benjamin is cuttable.
Wide Receivers to Drop for Fantasy Football
Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers – 66% Rostered
Romeo Doubs ended up leaving early during the Packers’ loss to the Lions this past weekend. Following the game, he was seen with a walking boot and crutches. The initial diagnosis is that the fourth-round rookie suffered a fairly moderate to severe high ankle sprain that will keep him out for 4–6 weeks. It’s certainly an unfortunate situation seeing as Doubs was coming off the best game he’s had in the NFL since Week 3.
Prior to Week 9, he registered six straight weeks of having a snap share higher than 80%. During the first eight games of the season, he had seen at least five targets in six different contests. While the production hadn’t been there, Doubs was receiving the workload of a WR3 in fantasy football. The underperforming could be chalked up to the failing offense and a rookie learning the ropes. A second-half surge was technically in play.
However, this injury will all but end his 2022 fantasy football season. Assuming he misses four weeks as initially indicated that would mean he’s not ready to play until Week 14. However, the Packers are on bye in Week 15, which means his likely return date is Week 15 against the Rams. There’s just no way anyone could feel confident putting Doubs into their starting lineup for the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Even though he will very likely return before the fantasy football season is complete, this injury pretty much ends any chance of him being a usable player for fantasy purposes. For that reason, fantasy managers can safely cut ties.
Robert Woods, Tennessee Titans – 53% Rostered
It does not matter who is under center. If it’s Malik Willis, it’s just exponentially worse than if it’s Ryan Tannehill, but even if it’s Tannehill, it’s still a very bad passing offense. So much so that there isn’t a single pass-catcher that needs to be rostered.
Tannehill has played in six games this season and has thrown for over 185 yards on just two occasions. Three times he’s been held to fewer than 140 yards. He has as many games with zero passing touchdowns as he does with one. He’s averaging just 183 passing yards per game and one touchdown. The passing volume reflects the production, just 24 attempts per game.
With Malik Willis, it’s been even worse. He’s attempted just 26 passes the past two weeks combined, completing 11 of them. That is not a typo. In two starts, he has 135 total passing yards and zero touchdowns.
This substandard passing attack has led to Robert Woods finishing with fewer than six half-PPR points in six out of eight games. His highest fantasy output this year has been 11 points and that was with him finding the end zone. There’s no ceiling in this offense right now and the floor is literally zero points, which he just did in Week 9.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kansas City Chiefs – 44% Rostered
As a Green Bay Packer, I’ve had to listen to many friends argue this would be Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s year. In 2020 and 2021, he was deemed the off-season MVP. One year, he was crowned such by Aaron Rodgers. Surely this had to mean something, right? The answer was no. Both times.
This past offseason, MVS would sign with the Kansas City Chiefs and his new quarterback was the great Patrick Mahomes. As if on queue, MVS earned high praise for his offseason play and there were reports out of camp that he was playing like Kansas City’s WR1. Surely Andy Reid and Mahomes would be able to get more out of MVS than Matt LaFleur and Rodgers did, right? The answer was no. Again.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling was targeted on 1.8% of his routes last night. That is the lowest rate for a player in a game with at least 1 target in the 17 years PFF has data for.
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) November 7, 2022
MVS is averaging just 4.9 targets per game, which amounts to 83 targets per game. This is essentially the workload of a boom or bust WR5/6. The problem, there’s been no booms. Seriously, not one. His highest scoring output of the season is 12.6 half-PPR points. The next touchdown he scores, will be his first one with the Chiefs.
He has three games with fewer than 2.5 points and one game with a big ol’ goose egg. He’s only scored in double-digits twice and he’s currently on pace to finish with just 809 yards. With the acquisition of Kadarius Toney and the strong play from Mecole Hardman over the past four weeks, fantasy managers can safely cut ties with this one-trick pony who has forgotten how to do that one trick.
Tight Ends to Drop for Fantasy Football
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams – 86% Rostered
It's been the tale of two halves for Tyler Higbee and unfortunately for fantasy managers, we are in the scary half of the season. From Weeks 1–5, no tight end in the NFL averaged more targets than Higbee did. His 9.6 targets per game was a full target better than Travis Kelce. In Weeks 6–9, he's averaging just three targets per game.
Tyler Higbee's target share:
Weeks 1-5: 24.1%
Last three games: 9.2%— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) November 7, 2022
Fantasy managers knew, at least they should have known, there was no way Higbee could continue his torrid pace that he started the season with, but no one could have reasonably expected this kind of fall either. In the first five weeks of the season, he had at least four receptions in every single game. He had over 60 yards in three contests and never had a game with fewer than 39 yards. In the past three weeks, he has three total receptions and just 22 total yards. Higbee did not have a single game from Weeks 1–5 with as poor production as he's had in Weeks 6–9 combined. It's been bad.
This offense is struggling mightily and has scored over 20 points just twice this year. On the flip side, they've been held to 14 or fewer points on five occasions. That poor scoring offense has resulted in Higbee not having a single touchdown on the season. With his targets all but disappearing, fantasy managers can safely send Higbee to the waiver wire.
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills – 78% Rostered
Dawson Knox came out of nowhere last year to finish with nine touchdowns and a spot in the top-12 rankings for fantasy football tight ends. With the high-flying Bufalo offense an an MVP signal-caller, the ceiling might have looked high at face value, but there were plenty of red flags that are now rearing their ugly heads.
Through the first eight weeks of the season, Knox is 33rd among tight ends in target share with just 10.3%. He's 26th in targets per game with just 3.8. There's just nothing about that kind of volume that needs to be rostered. Not even in 14-team leagues.
Knox has just one game with double-digits, finishing with 11.2 half-PPR points in Week 6 and that performance required a touchdown to break 10 points. The most receiving yards he has in any one game this season is 41. He has yet to record five receptions and he's had four or fewer targets in five out of out of seven contests. There is absolutely no upside with Knox right now. The only way he can give you semi-decent stat line is if he finds the end zone.
On the Hot Seat
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs – 94% Rostered
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been pretty dreadful this season. His saving grace has been touchdowns, but as those have dried up in recent weeks, fantasy managers have been left very disappointed. Just how bad has Edwards-Helaire been this season? Have you seen the Detroit Lions play defense? If so, that's about comparable with how bad CEH has been.
Through eight weeks this season, CEH has just two games with more than 45 yards rushing. He has just one game where head coach Andy Reid gave him 10 or more carries. He has five games where he's finished with fewer than 35 yards, three games with 15 or fewer, and two with five or less. I mean, he has been bad.
Lowest Rush Yards Over Expected per Attempt (per @NextGenStats):
Cam Akers -0.97
Najee Harris -0.88
Melvin Gordon -0.78
Leonard Fournette -0.45
Clyde Edwards-Helaire -0.44
Raheem Mostert -0.44— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) November 7, 2022
Ideally, fantasy managers would've traded him after his blistering four-week start where he just so happened to find the end zone five times. 40.5% of his fantasy points this season have come from touchdowns, a ridiculously high rate that has no chance of continuing. He's averaging just fewer than 11 touches per game and there's reason to believe that number is going to decrease.
That's because prior to Week 7, there were reports that the Chiefs were switching it up and named Isiah Pacheco the new starting running back for the Chiefs. That destination really hasn't changed much in the box score, but the message means something. Through eight weeks, CEH has played 45% or more of the team's snap just one time.
What's worse, in the past two weeks, Edwards-Helaire has played the lowest percentage of snaps this season. He played just 27% in Week 7 and that dropped to 17% in Week 9. If you're in a smaller league, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has played his way into cuttable territory. If you're in a 12-team league or larger, I'd prefer to hang on and hope he finds the end zone giving you a chance to sell him, even if the return is minimal.
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans – 79% Rostered
Brandin Cooks was held out of the Texans' loss to the Philadelphia Eagles after he expressed his frustration with not being dealt at the trade deadline. There were plenty of rumors that Cooks could have been on the move, but teams didn't want to inherit his 2023 contract and so when the deadline passed, Cooks was still in Houston and he was not at all happy about that.
Don’t take a man’s kindness for granted. Covered for the lies for too long those days are done. Crossed the line with playing with my career 🏹
— Brandin Cooks (@brandincooks) November 1, 2022
Following the game, there were reports Cooks would be returning to the facility this week and would be available for their Week 10 game, but it's fair to wonder just how committed he will be down the home stretch. While it sounds like Cooks will be available for fantasy managers in the future, there are questions about what he'll provide.
Through seven weeks this season, Cooks has just two games with double-digit games in half-PPR scoring. He doesn't have a single game with more than 16 points and has two contests with fewer than five points. He's still averaging a very healthy 7.6 targets per game, but the efficiency of those targets has been dreadful. He has just two games with more than 60 yards.
Cooks is currently on pace for just 860 yards. He has just one touchdown on the season. He's averaging just 8.2 half-PPR PPG. The Texans are just 27th in passing yards and 28th in points scored. In smaller leagues, Cooks has likely played his way into being a player teams could reasonably cut, but in leagues with 12 or more teams, his target share dictates that he stays rostered, at least right now.
Hold On
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos – 90% Rostered
It's amazing how many fantasy managers are feeling the urge to do something with Courtland Sutton. I can totally respect that because his last three games have been brutal. Absolutely brutal.
Courtland Sutton has 11 fantasy points...
combined in his last three games.
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 30, 2022
As bad as the last three weeks have been, Sutton is still averaging 7.3 targets per game, which is a pace of 124 targets. That kind of volume would typically result in a backend WR2, high-end WR3 finish. As bad as the last three weeks have been, our short-term memory blocks out his first four games.
He had 9.9 or more half-PPR points in each of his first four games of the season. He had 13.7 or more half-PPR points in three straight games to start the season. We can often be prisoners of the moment and there might be no better example of that than Sutton. Coming out of the bye week, there are reasons to hope that the Broncos' offense is a bit more efficient. While fantasy managers may need to adjust the way they value Sutton, but he should still be treated as a WR3.
Fantasy Football Players to Sell
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins – 93% Rostered
Raheem Mostert had been in complete control of the Miami backfield in recent weeks. He hadn't just overtaken the job from Chase Edmonds, but he had essentially worked himself into a workhorse role. Then when Edmonds was traded, Mostert's value shot through the roof. Turns out it was short-lived. The Dolphins made a move to add Jeff Wilson Jr. and in his first game with Miami, Wilson operated as the 1A.
#Dolphins Week 9 RB snap rates:
Jeff Wilson - 49%
Raheem Mostert - 47% https://t.co/N2L8jTZgO3— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 7, 2022
Not only did Wilson play more snaps, but he earned more opportunities, as well. That's a big deal considering it was just Wilson's first game with his new team. It's fair to assume as Wilson gets more up to speed with the Miami playbook that Wilson's role could grow in the coming weeks. If someone is still willing to pay RB2 value for Mostert, I'd be inclined to move him after his Week 9 performance.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears – 61% Rostered
Darnell Mooney has been much better in recent weeks. From Weeks 4–8, Mooney is averaging 6.8 targets per game, which ranks 29th among receivers over that time. During that time, he's averaging 8.8 half-PPR PPG. That ranks as the WR38 during that span. Based on his yards per game during that span, Mooney is on pace for 1,146 receiving yards.
He's certainly played a lot better in recent weeks and a lot of that is due to the improved play from Justin Fields and the increase in passing volume. However, Chicago is still just passing the ball 23.67 times and averaging 171 passing yards per game. As good as Mooney has been the margin for error with that kind of limited passing volume is extremely small.
During that span, Mooney's highest output is 14 points, which is good, but the ceiling is limited due to the passing volume. While the floor has improved with the increase in passing volume, the floor is still much lower than most fantasy managers would like. Right now, the Chicago offense is flying high and fantasy managers might be able to sell Mooney on the improved play of Justin Fields. As much as that's true, a lot of his value has come on the ground. If you can trade Mooney for DeVonta Smith, that's a trade I would make in a heartbeat.
Reddit Requests
Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams – 66% Rostered
What do fantasy managers do with Darrell Henderson? It was the biggest question following last week's article. Right now, Henderson is not startable except for his extra-deep leagues. He can safely be dropped in 8 and 10-team leagues. If you're rostering Henderson in a 14-team league or larger, you need to hold. 12-team leagues are the biggest question. Is he cuttable? Yes. Can you hold? Yes.
#Rams Week 9 RB Usage
- Darrell Henderson: 49% snaps, 12 carries, 1 target (56 yards)
- Malcolm Brown: 27% snaps, 2 carries, 1 target (19 yards)
- Cam Akers: 20% snaps, 5 carries, 0 targets (3 yards)Its a mess
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 7, 2022
It hasn't been pretty, but he's likely to continue to see 12–15 touches per game. The offensive line play is atrocious and it greatly limits Henderson's upside, but 12–15 touches are 12–15 touches. He's likely to operate as the team's primary goal-line back and is the best bet of the Rams' running backs to find the end zone.
Fantasy managers should value Henderson as a touchdown-dependent RB3 on a bad offense behind a bad offensive line.
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