The Cut List (Week 5) - Time to Let Go?

August 15, 2020

Nate Green's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 4 of the season.

Welcome back to the Cut List, where we're about to call an audible--or, for a more baseball-appropriate term, throw a changeup.

This article now reviews several of ESPN's 25 most dropped players in the past week and, in order from most dropped to least (with some exclusions for injuries or opt-outs), determines how reasonable that course of action has been. (Some players near the bottom of the ESPN and Cut lists may have shifted around between writing and publication.)

Stats are thru August 13. Recommendations are for mixed leagues -- redraft, unless otherwise noted, as keeper leagues have their own rules. (As do AL/NL-only, where players rostered this widely are going to have homes.) You can find ideas on how to replace your cut candidates at the Waiver Wire Pickups List/App.

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Nate Pearson (SP, TOR)

If you struggle on the mound in Miami in your third career start--i.e., with no track record to back you up--drops are to be expected. The walk rate, nine in 12 1/3 innings, is very concerning. The saving grace here is that he gets Baltimore next, their surprising beginning of the season notwithstanding.

Verdict: See how things go in Baltimore, but on the bench in shallower leagues.

Colin Moran (3B, PIT)

Moran was dropped while Pittsburgh was off for three days when they were supposed to be playing St. Louis. He came right back on August 13 and homered at Cincinnati, continuing his hot Statcast start to the season (93rd percentile xwOBA), so it's time for someone to pick him up again if he was dropped in your league.

Verdict: Hold or pick up.

Jo Adell (OF, LAA)

Since his August 4 debut, Adell is 4-for-22 with no extra-base hits, no walks, and a negative-7.2 degree launch angle. He (like Pearson) remains very exciting in keeper and dynasty leagues, but except in the deepest redraft leagues, the short season means you probably shouldn't mess around with such a slow start.

Verdict: Drop except in deepest or AL-only leagues.

Jordan Montgomery (SP, NYY)

Montgomery has put up a good start, a bad start, and a decent start. The good start came first, and he gets the Red Sox next, which explains why he's being dropped, even though the Red Sox were his victim in that first start. The peripherals confirm his rather mediocre start, with a 4.65 xFIP.

Verdict: Drop in 12-team leagues and shallower. Hold in deeper formats, possibly on the bench for next start.

Matthew Boyd (SP, DET)

We touched briefly on Boyd last week. He hasn't faced an offense more difficult than Cincinnati and yet has a 10.24 ERA and 5.35 xFIP through four starts. It's a continuation of his major struggles in the second half of 2019. You're probably better off even streaming his spot at this point.

Verdict: Drop.

Brian Goodwin (OF, LAA)

Not good times for Angels outfielders. Goodwin has actually hit well on the whole this season, .275/.351/.549, but despite a strong barrel rate, Statcast is overall unimpressed. Goodwin also has not been an everyday player and hits in the bottom third of the order.

Verdict: Drop. He was already a deeper-league player even with a better spot in the batting order.

Dansby Swanson (SS, ATL)

After hitting .387/.406/.677 in July, Swanson has hit .200/.265/.244 in August. Tiny samples for both slash lines, but if you go back to the fact that he's a career .247 hitter with only 42 home runs in 465 career games, it's apparent what kind of hitter he is. The 3-for-3 stealing bases after two straight 10-for-15 seasons may be a true change, however, and his Statcast numbers are only middling, not terrible.

Verdict: This one depends on your wire. Drop in shallow leagues if something's there. Try to swing a trade in deeper leagues especially if someone is willing to pay for the three steals.

Kyle Freeland (SP, COL)

Freeland faces the Astros next. You may see how some individual Astros are doing so far and wonder, but it's still a solid offense with its 106 team wRC+; only the Padres have a higher one among teams Freeland has faced in 2020. And despite a 2.45 ERA, he has a 13.3 K% and 4.38 xFIP. Is that enough to trust someone who was demoted last year?

Verdict: Drop in 12 or fewer teams, bench if you can't bring yourself to drop a 2.45 ERA.

Enrique Hernandez (2B, LAD)

Like Boyd, discussed previously. The playing time is getting worse, as he's sat three of four games and batted ninth in the start.

Verdict: Drop.

Luis Arraez (2B, MIN)

When you lose 100 points of batting average (Arraez hit .334 last year and .236 so far this season), there will be a reaction. Statcast already thought last year's average was an exaggeration, expecting closer to .294 based on contact quality. This year that expectation is .253. It's a particularly bad problem for Arraez to have since he lacks much power or speed. Fortunately he is still playing almost daily.

Verdict: Drop.

Mitch Garver (C, MIN)

Like his teammate Arraez, Garver has followed up a breakout 2019 with a disappointing start to 2020. It's been absolutely brutal for Garver, whose xSLG on Statcast has literally been cut in half: .578 last year, .289 this year. His launch angle (and sweet-spot percentage) is pretty much the same as last year, so the problem is a 1.3 mph exit velocity reduction. Garver is a catcher and that doesn't seem like too much exit velocity to make up, so there is still some reason to wait a little longer.

Verdict: Hold in 12+ and drop in 10-team unless you want to see if there's any trade value left.

Ryan Pressly (RP, HOU)

A save, his first, on the 10th and a blown one, his second, on the 11th. Any decision here is banked on 3 2/3 innings, which is tough. Until there's an announcement here that he's out of the closer role, holding is reasonable.

Verdict: Hold until there's an obvious change in role or publicly known health status.

Update: Pressly picked up his 2nd save on Saturday 8/15, picking up two strikeouts with zero baserunners.

Griffin Canning (SP, LAA)

As difficult as Canning has found things this year (4.42 ERA, 5.06 xFIP), he does get to face the Giants next. Their 94 wRC+ is surprisingly solid by Giants standards (88 last year), but that's still a matchup where Canning would be a streaming candidate if he weren't on rosters. By comparison, the A's whom he just struggled against have a 102 wRC+ in 2020.

Verdict: Was already a deep-league or streaming option, where he's reasonable to use as such for the Giants in certain league contexts.

Steven Matz (SP, NYM)

Among the pitchers we've discussed so far, Matz is interesting because he actually has the best xFIP in the group, at 4.10, but only Boyd has a worse ERA. Matz is at Philadelphia next, where it makes sense for fantasy managers to be uninterested. He probably gets the Marlins in Miami after that, however. But if it turns out the Yankees are next, that's two straight starts in matchups that don't look great for an 8.10 ERA.

Verdict: Hold in 15+ for the Miami matchup, but bench against the Phillies. If he's pushed back a day he's a drop almost everywhere.

Update: Matz struggled in his start against the Phillies on Saturday 8/15, giving up six runs and eight baserunners over 4 1/3 innings.

Tommy Edman (3B/2B, STL)

All the Cardinals are unique cases. Nearly valueless during the long layoff, they now have the best chance for counting stats--St. Louis likely has the most ROS games, even if they don't play all of them.

Verdict: Hold. If he's been on your roster this whole time, you can't cut him now. If he's available in your league, take a look, except in shallow leagues where the layoff may mean a game or two before the team is back in rhythm.

Mike Minor (SP, TEX) and Oscar Mercado (OF, CLE)

Little has changed from when they were discussed in this column earlier this year, especially for Mercado whose numbers remain awful.

Justin Upton (OF, LAA)

Another Angel in the outfield (TM-Disney, probably). Upton, who is about to turn 33, has only played 78 games since the start of 2019 and they haven't gone well. Always in the 89-91 mph range in exit velocity, he's barely above 87 since '19. His launch angle--ballooned to 26 degrees in 2020 but with a sharp decline in sweet-spot percentage--has become useless. Other than name value, Upton doesn't offer much these days.

Verdict: Drop.

David Dahl (OF, COL)

Dahl had a strong 2019 but his 2020 has gone about as well as Upton's, except Dahl doesn't even have a home run yet. Still, as far as the Rockies go, Dahl is a regular, and he did have that 2019 success.

Verdict: Hold for now.

Update: Dahl did not start on Saturday 8/15, something to monitor.

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