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Today's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, Fanduel - Texans vs. Colts showdown slate for Week 18 (Jan 6, 2024). John's NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.
Welcome back and happy Saturday, RotoBallers! We have a matchup between two AFC South rivals who are playing for their playoff lives. It'll be C.J. Stroud and the Texans (9-7) heading a bit north to take on Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis Colts (9-7). It's a "win and you're in" situation for both of these teams, so this should be a fun one.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Texans vs. Colts NFL DFS showdown slate on January 6. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Michael Pittman Jr. - WR, $15,300 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 150 targets, 104 receptions, 1,108 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR1: 19.57%
I'll start things off tonight with Michael Pittman Jr. He had a relatively quiet week last week, catching five of his seven targets for 46 yards. To be fair to Pittman, he was dealing with a concussion relapse and should be a full go as he's practiced in full all week. He projects to 6.62 receptions on 9.21 targets for 76.82 receiving yards and 0.39 touchdowns. He draws a solid matchup against this Texans defense and should have himself a quality bounce-back game today.
Devin Singletary - RB, $12,600 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 192 rushing attempts, 835 rushing yards, 37 targets, 29 receptions, 191 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -15.68%
I'll flip the field and take a look at Devin Singletary next. The Texans haven't been great at running the ball this season, but are due for some positive regression against this 24th-ranked Colts defense. Singletary projects to 96.88 on roughly 17.7 touchdowns and 0.54 touchdowns. The Colts rank in the bottom third of nearly all categories against the running back position, so I think Singletary is primed to have himself a solid game.
Other Captains/MVPs: C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Jonathan Taylor
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
C.J. Stroud - QB, $11,200 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 3,844 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, 36 rushing attempts, 147 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, and four fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 15.75%
I'll take a look at C.J. Stroud next. Stroud had a relatively weak game last Sunday against the Titans and, if you're like me, may have cost you a fantasy championship. I won't hold that against Stroud, though, who was making his first start in two weeks and played well enough to grab his team the victory. He now gets a chance to push his team into the playoffs against a division rival in his rookie season. My model projects him to play up to the situation, throwing for 273.78 yards and 1.64 touchdowns against this Indianapolis defense.
Josh Downs - WR, $6,600 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 95 targets, 65 receptions, 723 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs Other WR: 17.12%
I'll take a look at Josh Downs next. Downs has had an up-and-down season, mostly due to the targets (or lack thereof) he sees on a week-to-week basis. I'll back him in this game, though, as he projects to 3.4 receptions on 5.56 targets for 43.28 yards and 0.21 touchdowns. He'll take on a Houston defense that struggles against 'Other' wide receivers. I think the Colts have more of a passing funnel in this game, so it'll be a lot of Gardner Minshew and his receivers tonight, making Downs a solid option at a relatively cheap price.
Other Flex Options: Nico Collins, Gardner Minshew, Jonathan Taylor
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Dalton Schultz - TE, $5,800 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 81 targets, 54 receptions, 593 receiving yards, five touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Opponent DVOA vs TE: 16.39%
I'll take a look at Dalton Schultz next. It's been weeks since Schultz has found the end zone, but he has garnered 20 targets over the last three weeks and should be up for another solid game in turns of targets tonight. The Colts rank 27th in targets allowed to tight ends, and Schultz projects to 3.92 receptions on 5.47 of them. He also projects 38.73 receiving yards and 0.29 touchdowns.
Kylen Granson - TE, $4,000 (DK), $6,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 49 targets, 29 receptions, 345 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opponent DVOA vs TE: 2.65%
I'll wrap things up with Kylen Granson. Granson is certainly more of a long-shot play in this spot, but I'll take the bait and see if he's able to hit his ceiling tonight. He projects to just 1.85 receptions on 2.98 targets for 18.7 yards and 0.12 touchdowns. It's worth a look due to the matchup; as the Texans rank 31st in targets allowed, 31st in receptions allowed, and 29th in receiving yards allowed to tight ends.
Other Value Plays: Matt Gay, Ka'imi Fairbairn, Dameon Pierce
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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