Week 12 Surprises? We Must Overreact Immediately!

November 26, 2019

Week 12 brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Jarvis Landry, Rashaad Penny, Russell Gage, Anthony Miller and more.

In Week 12, several high-end quarterbacks had terrible games due to rainy and/or windy conditions. It was both windy and rainy in the Boston area on Sunday which contributed to both Tom Brady and Dak Prescott finishing with less than 12 fantasy points. There were stiff winds in Philadelphia and as a result, Russell Wilson came up extremely small throwing for just one touchdown and 200 yards while in the same game Carson Wentz struggled, throwing for 256 yards and one touchdown. Both quarterbacks were sloppy with the football as Wentz threw two interceptions and fumbled twice while Wilson had one interception and was credited with a fumble on a botched hand-off.

Chris Godwin has been absolutely fantastic this year and continued to assert himself as a high-end WR1 in fantasy football in Week 12, catching seven passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns making him the No. 1 receiver on the week. Jarvis Landry, DJ Moore, DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas rounded out the top-five wide receivers while the volatile Allen Robinson finished as the No. 6 receiver on the week taking advantage of the poor Giants secondary. At the tight end position, Zach Ertz, George Kittle and Jared Cook finished in the top-three which is expected, while Mike Gesicki and Kaden Smith who was filling in for Evan Engram unexpectedly cracked the top-five.

At the running back position, Leonard Fournette had a huge game, touching the ball 33 times for 159 yards of offense and scored two touchdowns finishing as the No. 1 running back on the week. Christian McCaffrey finished right behind Fournette and Derrick Henry gashed the Jaguars Defense over and over on his way to 159 yards on the ground and two touchdowns. Jonathan Williams filled in for the injured Marlon Mack (hand) finishing as the No. 5 running back on the week and should continue to see decent volume as long as Mack is out of the lineup. Last week is now in the rearview mirror, and now we need to look ahead and evaluate how to move forward to Week 13.

Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)

Week 12 Stats: 14-of-18, 259 yards, 2 TD, 7 carries, 40 yards, 2 TD

In the same game where Derrick Henry rumbled for 159 yards and two touchdowns Ryan Tannehill threw for two touchdowns and ran in another pair scoring four times on the day finishing as the No. 1 quarterback on the week. Tannehill has been a viable streaming option at quarterback since assuming the starting job in Tennessee and he may hold on to this job into 2020.

Bottom Line: Tannehill simply doesn't throw the ball enough to trust him on a weekly basis, but can be streamed if the matchup is right. Tannehill finished as the No. 1 quarterback on the week because he scored 16 points with his legs which was just under 50% of his production.

Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)

Week 12 Stats: 23-of-46, 271 yards, 1 INT

Matt Ryan arguably had the best matchup of the week against a Buccaneers Defense that was getting absolutely shredded by opposing quarterbacks. On top of that, the Falcons have been surging as of late, appearing to be a completely new team. Although things set up well for Ryan, he struggled as the Buccaneers pash rush had him under siege all day sacking him six times and hurrying him on several more plays. To make matters worse Julio Jones played through an in-game shoulder injury which appeared to slow him.

Bottom Line: Austin Hooper was out for the Falcons and Julio Jones was clearly hampered by a shoulder injury he was trying to play through. When you couple the injuries the Falcons suffered at the skill positions with the unrelenting Buccaneers pass rush, it was a perfect storm for a dud from Ryan. Moving forward Ryan is not a lock to be in your lineup and you need to evaluate the matchup and the status of both Julio Jones and Austin Hooper before putting Ryan in your lineup.

Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)

Week 12 Stats: 13 targets, 10 catches, 148 yards, 2 TD

It's hard to really buy into the "revenge-game" narrative, but heading into Week 12 Jarvis Landry was telling members of the media that he had this game circled on his calendar and he was looking to put up big numbers against Miami. The Dolphins struggle against opposing wide receivers (among other things) and given Landry's extra motivation, this game appeared to set up as the perfect storm leading to Landry finishing as the No. 2 wide receiver on the week.

Bottom Line: Landry is a solid WR2 but you cannot expect these Week 12 numbers each week so temper expectations.

Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)

Week 12 Stats: 9 targets, 6 catches, 76 yards, 1 TD

Cole Beasley had a great game against the Denver Broncos in Week 12 and that's mainly due to the fact that he avoided Chris Harris in coverage for most of the afternoon.

Bottom Line: Cole Beasley now has 49 catches, 525 yards and four touchdowns on the season which makes him the No. 30 wide receiver in PPR-scoring. Beasley is a decent WR4 in deeper PPR-leagues and seems to really come through when John Brown has a difficult matchup.

Russell Gage (WR, ATL)

Week 12 Stats: 10 targets, 8 catches, 76 yards

In Week 12, the Falcons were once again without the services of Austin Hooper and Julio Jones was injured during the game, playing through what appeared to be a shoulder injury. With several receiving options injured, Russell Gage proceeded to play 73.6% of the Falcons snaps and finished the game with 15.6 PPR-points.

Bottom Line: Russell Gage cannot be relied upon on a week-to-week basis but he has demonstrated the ability to come through if the stars align. Gage is worth a roster spot in deeper leagues but you can't really trust him unless you're desperate or if Julio Jones happens to miss a game.

Anthony Miller (WR, CHI)

Week 12 Stats: 9 targets, 6 catches, 77 yards

Anthony Miller has been coming on lately -- over his last two games he has been targeted a total of 20 times.

Bottom Line: Miller could be a go-to wide receiver down the stretch in the fantasy playoffs, but he will be matchup-dependent given the volatile play of Mitch Trubisky. He is a viable WR4 in PPR but carries risk.

Rashaad Penny (RB, SEA)

Week 12 Stats: 14 carries, 129 yards, 1 TD

Chris Carson carried the ball just eight times for 26 yards and a touchdown in Week 12, but he fumbled again which gave Rashaad Penny an opportunity. He took full advantage, playing a season-high 46.2% of the snaps and running for a season-high 129 yards including a 51-yard TD.

Bottom Line: This situation bears close monitoring. If Penny is somehow available on your waiver wire you absolutely need to make an effort to acquire him. The Seahawks tend to go with the hot hand and given Carson's ball security issues this week, they may turn to Penny down the stretch. Penny has a different skill-set than Carson and has some serious wheels on him.

Josh Jacobs (RB, OAK)

Week 12 Stats: 10 carries, 34 yards, 1 target, 1 catch, 2 yards

The Jets boast the best rush defense in the NFL giving up just 3.0 yards-per-carry and less than 80 yards-per-game. Jacobs had a terrible matchup, game script worked against him and it resulted in a miserable performance in Week 12.

Bottom Line: The Jets are shutting down running backs this year, so this poor showing isn't unique to Josh Jacobs. Plus, they clearly caught the Raiders looking ahead to KC next week and shut them down through the air as well. Continue to trust Josh Jacobs in the fantasy playoffs because Week 12 will be an outlier performance for him.

Logan Thomas (TE, DET)

Week 12 Stats: 2 targets, 2 catches, 24 yards, 1 TD

Lions starting tight end TJ Hockenson was targeted twice in Week 12 and failed to haul in either of those passes. Thomas played 37.3% of the snaps compared to 44% for Hockenson which was a season-low for him.

Bottom Line: None of the Lions receiving options have been lighting it up since Jeff Driskel took over at quarterback. Logan Thomas should remain on waiver wires because this will likely be his best game of 2019.

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