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I really screwed the pooch here last week. My first recommendation was Kyle Bradish and I called him a "priority pickup". Some of you probably picked him up and started him after that, and you were punished by him on Tuesday as he gave up seven earned runs on eight hits and four walks. Your WHIP probably never recovered. The good news was that the rest of the recommendations were pretty solid, so I hope to have earned your trust for a new week.
But man, it has been TOUGH to find good starting pitching this year. The league ERA is at 4.32 right now, up a ton from last year's mark of 3.96. Some of that might just be because it's early and pitchers are getting into their rhythms and adjusting to the new rules, but a lot of it is probably here to stay since hitters are stealing so many more bases and more base hits are finding their way through the infield. We really need to double down on limiting our SP starts to pitchers that limit walks and balls being put into play. Of course, that gets pretty tough to find on the waiver wire, but we'll do our best.
Let's get to it – here are your starting pitcher fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups recommendations for Week 6 of the fantasy baseball season (May 1 - May 7).
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Waiver Wire Pickups for Shallow Leagues
Pitcher pickup recommendations for leagues of any size
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates (43% Rostered)
All Keller did this week was beat and strike out ten Dodgers in his fifth straight quality start. But the people out there have only brought his ownership rate up three points. Three points!? Come on!
Now, I'll forgive you. Maybe a lot of people saw Keller last weekend and noticed that his start this week was against LA, and decided to save it for next week. I think you should be convinced now, and I don't want to have Keller in this post again next week! Get him up past 50% – do your part! Let's update the pitch mix chart we showed last week and move on:
Mitch Keller 2023 Pitch Usage
| Pitch | Usage | CSW% |
| 4-Seam | 24.6% | 33.8% |
| Cutter | 23.9% | 30.4% |
| Sinker | 20.8% | 37.5% |
| Sweeper | 13.7% | 19.0% |
| Curve | 12.8% | 28.4% |
| Change | 4.3% | 28.0% |
Domingo German, New York Yankees (28% Rostered)
Another repeated name on the list from the last couple of weeks, but German is really showing out every time he takes the hill.
| Pitcher | GS | K% |
| Spencer Strider | 5 | 42.6% |
| Jacob deGrom | 5 | 42.2% |
| Zac Gallen | 6 | 36.2% |
| Matt Strahm | 5 | 36.0% |
| Shohei Ohtani | 6 | 35.1% |
| Kevin Gausman | 5 | 32.3% |
| Pablo Lopez | 5 | 32.2% |
| MacKenzie Gore | 5 | 31.5% |
| Shane McClanahan | 6 | 30.9% |
| Domingo German | 5 | 30.8% |
In his most recent start, he gave up six earned runs to the Twins, so you might be hesitant to go get him because of that. Those runs came largely on three homers and he still went for a nice 8:2 K:BB ratio. Homers allowed are largely random, strikeouts and walks are not, and German has stayed above 20% in the K-BB% all year and I think he's here to stay.
Matt Strahm, Philadelphia Phillies (33% Rostered)
You saw Matt Strahm's name in the table above way up there with a 36% K% on the year. So I figured we should talk about him next. The problem for Strahm's fantasy value is that the pitch counts have been absurdly low.
Just when it looked like we were creeping up toward 90 pitches, the Phillies yanked him after just 60 pitches. And he was pitching great in that start last week as well with five strikeouts, no runs, no walks, and two hits allowed in 5.1 innings against the Mariners.
If we thought he would be held under 75 pitches every time out, I would not recommend adding him – and I'm still not saying he's some "must add" guy right now, but the strikeout rate is impossible to ignore. The lefty is a good source for strikeouts at the very least while we see how the Phillies will use him moving forward.
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians (27% Rostered)
Bibee was great in his Major League debut. He threw 5.2 innings and gave up one run on six hits while striking out eight and walking NOBODY.
For the year, a 32% K% and a 9.5% BB%. That earned him at least a couple more turns in the rotation for Cleveland, a team that has been racked by pitcher injuries this year. The young gun put up a "meh" 12.1% SwStr% in his first start but his slider (17.5%) and changeup (25%) really looked good.
The range of possible outcomes with Bibee is wide, as it always is with rookie pitchers, but the upside is looking pretty high and he should be owned in most leagues while he's in the Major League rotation,
Seth Lugo, San Diego Padres (48% Rostered)
We'll just make this one quick because there's a good chance Lugo is already taken in your league. He hasn't been fantastic this year (22% K%, 5% BB%, 3.58 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), but he hasn't had a truly bad start either. Lugo is a veteran pitcher who knows how to pitch and he should be serviceable at worst in the fantasy game this year in these brutal times for the position.
Waiver Wire Pickups for Deeper Leagues
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals (42% Rostered)
People are going to be very excited to rush out and add Gore after his performance this week. He struck out 10 Mets in six innings while giving up just one run on four hits and walking a pair. Those two walks tied his season-low for walks allowed, and therein lies our problem.
Most Walks Allowed 2023
| Player | IP | BB |
| Edward Cabrera | 22 | 20 |
| Jack Flaherty | 27 | 19 |
| Brad Keller | 25 | 19 |
| Kodai Senga | 26 | 18 |
| Blake Snell | 23 | 18 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 34 | 17 |
| Merrill Kelly | 26 | 17 |
| Michael Kopech | 26 | 16 |
| MacKenzie Gore | 27 | 16 |
| Alek Manoah | 26 | 16 |
Gore has a 14.4% BB% right now. You just can't do that and be successful in the Majors. It's easier to do when you have the 31.5% K% that Gore also sports, but it's still incredibly tough. Gore is a fine add in deeper leagues, he'll spin some gems this year like we saw last week. However, you have to be prepared for some really bad starts as well since he just doesn't have command of the baseball. But the strikeouts can't be ignored (he has at least six in each of his five starts this year).
Braxton Garrett, Miami Marlins (8% Rostered)
Garrett has made five appearances in the Majors this year and has not given up more than two earned runs in any of them. He has 19 strikeouts and three walks in 22 innings. He's throwing a bunch of strikes and his stuff is legit.
We don't know how consistent Garrett can be, as he pitched like an ace for a few weeks last year but was also awful at times. That said, we're hurting for upside arms right now and Garrett is certainly one of them. It's nice to see him throwing strikes, and I expect the strikeout rate to tick up in the coming weeks. He's a good add and he's widely available.
Roansy Contreras, Pittsburgh Pirates (26% Rostered)
The Pirates righty had a horrible second start to the season, giving up nine hits and seven earned runs in 3.1 innings against the Astros. That was pretty discouraging even given the tough matchup, but since then, Roansy has been on a roll. He has ripped off three straight quality starts against the Cardinals, Reds, and Dodgers while giving up just three total earned runs and striking out 19. The walk rate is higher than we like (10.3%), but it's not egregiously bad and he's generating a ton of soft contact.
Now, I don't really like to trust pitchers that are getting the job done with weak contact because that stuff can change in a hurry. I want to see Contreras' strikeout rate get much higher than its current 21% before I really buy in, but the slider is a great pitch that is tough to square up and he's throwing it a ton this year.
I don't know what in the world has gotten into the Pirates rotation this year, but Roansy and the gang have been great and they deserve some adds in the fantasy game this week.
Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks (8% Rostered)
We did not see Pfaadt get called up last week, and he made another start in AAA on Wednesday. This very well could be the week the D'Backs give him the call. They cut Madison Bumgarner and demoted Drey Jameson, which gives them two holes in their rotation to fill – and Pfaadt is going to be here sooner rather than later.
It's impossible to say confidently that Pfaadt's AAA success will translate into the Majors, but it's tough to ignore what he's done over the last two years. This year, he has a beautiful 29% K% and a 6% BB%. If he can keep that to something like 26% and 8% in the Majors, he'll be one of the more useful pitchers in the league – so let's go ahead and pick Pfaadt up now before the official call-up – I promise you, it's coming soon.
Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics (30% Rostered)
I don't have very high expectations for Miller this year. He's overly dependent on the four-seamer, really experienced, and certainly on an innings limit on the league's worst baseball team.
That said, I can't ignore a high K-BB% and that's what Miller has delivered this year. So far in the Majors, he has 11 strikeouts and two walks in 8.1 innings – and that's something to notice. For the year, he has a 46% K% and a 3% BB% (between AA, AAA, and the MLB), so yeah – he's someone to watch. If you need a handful of strikeouts once a week, Miller can do that for you, but again, he's a low-priority add.
Other Waiver Wire Options
- Drew Smyly, Chicago Cubs
- Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins
- Luke Weaver, Cincinnati Reds
- Gavin Stone, Los Angeles Dodgers
- JP Sears, Oakland Athletics
- Joey Lucchesi, New York Mets
- Tylor Megill, New York Mets
- David Peterson, New York Mets
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