Are You For Real? Surprising Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Starts From Charlie Morton, Slade Cecconi, Randy Vasquez

Elliott looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 13 in 2025, or just mirages.

Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 13 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take a look at starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or just smoke and mirrors.

We have three interesting starts to look at from this past weekend, two from some young up-and-coming arms and one from a wily veteran. First, we'll deep dive into Charlie Morton's resurgence in Baltimore. Then, we'll break down Slade Cecconi's strong performances in Cleveland. We'll finish it off by looking at Randy Vasquez's strong start on Sunday.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of June 23.

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Charlie Morton, Baltimore Orioles – 24% Rostered

2025 Stats (prior to this start): 61 IP, 6.05 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 12.2% K-BB%

6/19 @ TB: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

It’s been a tough year for old ground chuck, as Morton has struggled to the tune of a 5.64 ERA and 1.34 HR/9 in 67 innings this season. It was so bad that Morton lost his rotation spot after putting up a 10.89 ERA in his first five starts.

He regained his rotation spot due to team need in late May and has pitched much better (not that it could get much worse), posting a 2.42 ERA and an 11.8 K/9 in five starts since returning to the rotation. Has the veteran figured things out, or is this ground chuck spoiled?

Initially a third-round pick all the way back in 2002, the 41-year-old Morton has been pitching in the big leagues since 2008, an impressive feat on its own. His pitch sequencing has changed over the years, but Morton works with the same five-pitch mix he has always used: a curveball, a four-seamer, a sinker, a changeup, and a cutter.

His pitch sequencing has changed drastically over the years, as Morton was once a sinker-heavy pitcher, which is how he earned the nickname Ground Chuck for his ground-ball proclivities. That changed around 2017 when Morton went to Houston; the Astros had him emphasize his curveball and four-seam, eschewing the sinker and cutting its usage by more than half.

These days, Morton relies heavily on his curveball and four-seamer, throwing them a combined 68.1% of the time this season.

The curveball was on prominent display in this one, as Morton used it 49% of the time, his most in any start this season. He’s throwing his curveball more often since rejoining the rotation as well, using it 42.9% of the time over his last five starts. Comparatively, he only used it 34% of the time in his first five starts.

A loopy 81.4 mph offering, Morton’s curveball is known for its exceptional spin rate. He’s averaged 3143 RPM with the pitch this season, giving it the highest spin rate for curveballs among starting pitchers in MLB. It also has above-average horizontal movement, giving it a frisbee-like quality that can whizz by hitters.

Here’s an example from this start.

pic.twitter.com/QPtzOHKjqN

— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) June 23, 2025

Still a pretty nasty pitch for Morton, and one that batters have struggled with this season. Opponents are hitting .261 off the curveball with a .423 SG and .332 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that Morton has been a little unlucky with the pitch, as he has a .235 xBA, .377 xSLG, and .304 xwOBA with his curveball this season.

Morton has a .347 BABIP against the pitch this season despite a .265 BABIP with it all time, so it would be reasonable to expect regression on these numbers, and I’d expect him to normalize towards his expected stats.

The curveball can still be a decent strikeout pitch as well, with Morton putting up a 14.5% swinging-strike rate and a 34.3% chase rate with the pitch this season. He earned six of his 13 whiffs with the curve in this start against Tampa Bay as well. As Morton has aged, he’s begun relying more on his curveball, and it still has the makings of an effective pitch.

His next most-used pitch has been the four-seam fastball, which Morton has thrown 30% of the time this season. He has middling velocity at 94 mph and middling spin at 2332 RPM. What makes the pitch unique is its shape; Morton has below-average vertical movement but above-average horizontal movement, which makes the pitch hard to square up for opponents.

Batters have really struggled against Morton’s four-seamer this season, hitting just .206 but with a .475 SLG and .354 wOBA. Why so much power? Flyballs. We ought to call him Air Chuck, given the batted-ball profile against his four-seam fastball. Morton has a 28-degree average launch angle and a 63.4% fly-ball rate off his four-seamer this season.

Flyballs can lead to easy outs, but they can also lead to home runs and extra-base hits.

Morton has a 91.1 mph average exit velocity off his four-seamer this season, so sometimes those flyballs can carry up and out. The good news is that the expected stats on Morton’s fastball suggest regression is coming. He has a .175 xBA, .403 xSLG, and .315 xwOBA against the pitch. He also has a 19.2% HR/FB ratio with the pitch, while the league average is 11.3%.

Morton could certainly experience home run regression as well, as his current 1.34 HR/9 is far ahead of his career mark of 0.87 HR/9.

While the curveball and four-seamer can be a nice combo for Morton, the rest of his repertoire leaves something to be desired. Take his famous sinker, for example. Opponents are hitting .348 off the sinker with a .500 SLG, .410 wOBA, and 93.7 mph average exit velocity. This isn’t a new phenomenon for Morton either, as opponents are hitting .363 with a .535 SLG off his sinker since 2023.

He can still pull a 60% ground-ball rate with the pitch, but any elevation and the ball is just hammered. Unfortunately, it seems that the game has passed this pitch by, and it’s a good thing that Morton no longer relies on it as his primary fastball.

Morton can still rack up the strikeouts thanks primarily to his curveball and four-seamer, which have the two highest whiff rates of any of Morton’s pitches. A solid 9.94 K/9 and 24% strikeout rate puts him ahead of your typical waiver wire pitcher. Unfortunately, Morton may be a liability in the WHIP department.

He has a 1.60 WHIP on the year, and even during his five-game hot stretch, he posted a 1.35 WHIP. He hasn’t posted a WHIP below 1.32 since 2022. In Roto and categories formats, Morton needs to be deployed strategically; ideally against free-swinging below-average lineups, and he can’t be trusted against top-tier opponents.

Verdict:

Morton looked completely washed at the beginning of the season, posting a 10.89 ERA through his first five starts and losing his rotation spot. But the time in the bullpen might’ve cured him, as he’s posted a 2.42 ERA in five starts since returning to the rotation.

Morton’s curveball is still an effective strikeout pitch thanks to its exceptional spin and movement, and he should be able to wield it as his primary pitch going forward. He still has decent velocity for his age at 94 mph, and batters have really struggled to square up the four-seamer this season, hitting just .206 with a 28-degree average launch angle against it.

The rest of his repertoire is lacking, as the famous sinker is no longer effective and is best used situationally when a groundball is needed. Neither his curveball nor changeup has proven especially effective, as batters are hitting over .350 against each pitch with a sub-24% whiff rate.

Morton has gone from unusable to streamable in the right matchups. He can probably return to form as an innings-eater with an ERA between 3.50 and 4.3 and a decent strikeout rate, like how he performed in Atlanta.

Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians – 14% Rostered

2025 Stats (prior to this start): 30 1/3 IP, 4.15 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 17.4% K-BB%

6/22 @ ATH: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

Cecconi had his best start of the season on Sunday, blanking the A’s for seven shutout innings while picking up his second straight victory. Cecconi has come into his own lately after a rough start; over his last four starts, Cecconi has a 2.05 ERA, 3.07 FIP, and 14.3% K-BB%. Is Cecconi coming into his own, or will this performance fade?

Originally a competitive balance pick by the Diamondbacks back in 2020, Cecconi had some prospect pedigree and was seen as a future starter. He was traded from Arizona to Cleveland this past offseason in the Josh Naylor trade. Cecconi works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, sinker, and changeup.

Cecconi’s most-used pitch this season has been the four-seam fastball, and that was the case for him on Sunday against the Athletics. He threw the fastball 37% of the time on Sunday and throws it 40.9% of the time overall. A 94.5 mph offering, Cecconi’s four-seamer has average velocity. He has an average drop with it as well, but boasts plus horizontal movement that gives it a slightly atypical shape.

Batters have had no trouble with Cecconi’s four-seamer this season, hitting .333 off the pitch with a .500 SLG and .371 wOBA. As if those numbers aren’t bad enough, the expected stats suggest even worse results could be on the horizon. Cecconi has an ugly .364 xBA, .637 xSLG, and .433 xwOBA with his four-seamer this season. Opponents are pulverizing this pitch for a 95.2 mph average exit velocity and a 21-degree average launch angle against it.

The batted ball profile on this fastball is atrocious, with Cecconi surrendering a 34% line drive rate with just a 26% ground-ball rate. We could live with a low ground-ball rate, but that line-drive rate is brutal. 34% is abnormally high, to the point where I’d expect regression at some point, but the fact remains that batters are having no trouble with this fastball.

The pitch isn’t hard enough to blow past hitters, and it doesn't move or spin enough to be especially deceptive. The four-seamer is not Cecconi’s strength and instead may be a liability for him on the mound.

The four-seamer may be getting knocked around, but Cecconi has some effective pitches in his repertoire as well, namely the slider and curveball. Both pitches have been incredible this season, and Cecconi could use them to spring a breakout.

His second-most used pitch this season has been the slider, which he throws 26.1% of the time. An 84.3 mph offering, Cecconi’s slider has given batters fits. Opponents are hitting just .114 off the slider with a .200 SLG and .179 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that Cecconi has earned these results too, with a .132 xBA, .325 xSLG, and .230 xwOBA.

He also boasts a monster 41.9% whiff rate with the pitch, although he only got two of his seven whiffs with the slider on Sunday.

Cecconi more than doubled the whiff rate on his slider compared to last season, and batters are hitting more than 170 points lower against the slider this season compared to last as well. He did gain about two-and-a-half inches of horizontal movement with the pitch versus last year, so perhaps he’s turned a corner, but I’m skeptical that he can sustain these numbers with the slider.

These are elite, Cy Young caliber numbers and deviate from expectations for Cecconi. There’s just no way he sustains a .136 BABIP against his slider this season, and it’s very difficult for a pitcher to double his whiff rate and maintain it as well.

The slider isn’t the only pitch Cecconi is using to confound hitters, as his curveball has proven incredibly effective this season as well. He’s only thrown it 15.8% of the time, but batters are hitting just .160 off Cecconi’s curve with a .280 SLG and .245 wOBA. The expected stats are right in line with the actual results, too, with Cecconi posting a .155 xBA, .272 xSLG, and .238 xwOBA.

What’s really impressive is the 51.2% whiff rate, an unheard-of number.

He earned four whiffs on eight swings in this start against the Athletics as well, racking up the whiffs despite throwing just 14 curveballs in this start. When batters do make contact, they have a hard time squaring the pitch up, with a 64.3% ground-ball rate and just a 7.1% line-drive rate against. Cecconi primarily uses the pitch against lefties, and it’s been a great tool for him, especially considering that he struggles against lefties otherwise.

Like with the slider, I’m skeptical that Cecconi can sustain this performance, even with the favorable expected stats. These numbers deviate significantly from past results, which are elite. Not even the likes of Tarik Skubal or Paul Skenes can sustain a 50% whiff rate on a heavily used pitch, so why would we expect Cecconi to sustain this?

His curveball boasts rather average spin and movement, and there’s nothing in the profile to suggest that it’s one of the best curveballs in MLB. A solid pitch that Cecconi might benefit from using more often, but not the best curveball in baseball.

Cecconi deviated from his normal pitch usage in this start, relying more on his sinker than normal. He’s used his sinker 9.4% of the time this season, but he threw it 18% of the time against the Athletics. He threw it exclusively to right-handed batters, and a shift towards his sinker could be beneficial for Cecconi.

Opposing batters have handled the sinker well this season, hitting .357 with a .714 SLG and .520 wOBA off the pitch.

Those are MVP numbers, and the expected stats are somehow worse with a .390 xBA, .724 xSLG, and .532 xwOBA. Not pretty, especially since batters are smoking the pitch for a 91.2 mph average exit velocity. The one good thing about this sinker is that it induces groundballs. Cecconi has a one-degree average launch angle against his sinker, along with a 50% ground-ball rate.

The sinker is an entirely new pitch for Cecconi; he didn’t throw it with Arizona. Perhaps he’s trying to find an alternative for his four-seamer, or at least take some of the pressure off it, but the sinker seems like a work in progress for Cecconi.

Verdict:

This is one of the strangest profiles I’ve had the pleasure of analyzing this season. The results on Cecconi’s two primary breaking balls, the slider and curveball, are incredible, with whiff rates above 40% and microscopic batting averages against. Conversely, Cecconi’s fastballs have been clobbered by opponents.

Batters have a 95.2 mph average exit velocity against the four-seamer, and are hitting .333 off the four-seamer and .357 off the sinker. Who is the real Slade Cecconi? Is he an ace with these breaking balls, or a chump with bad fastballs?

The answer is probably somewhere in the middle, but I’m skeptical that Cecconi can sustain the elite numbers on his breaking balls for a few reasons. First, it’s a massive deviation from past results. Secondly, the pitches have relatively average measurables and typical shapes.

He has unsustainably low BABIPs with each pitch. Lastly, I do not think Cecconi is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he’d have to be to maintain these numbers.

The pitches have performed well enough that I think Cecconi is worth an add in 12-team leagues or deeper. He’s flown a bit under the radar in Cleveland, making him a sneaky add with strikeout upside. The biggest drawback in this profile is the awful performance on his fastballs.

Both fastballs look like liabilities for Cecconi on the mound, and he’ll need to toy with his pitch sequencing to figure out the best approach. He could still do some growing and take off, but ultimately, he’s probably a 4-5 starter with streaming potential.

Randy Vasquez, San Diego Padres – 7% Rostered

2025 Stats (prior to this start): 73 IP, 3.70 ERA, 5.54 FIP, 2.5% K-BB%

6/22 vs. KC: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Vasquez had one of his best starts all season, completing seven frames for the first time this year in a no-decision against Kansas City. Vasquez has a respectable 3.60 ERA through 16 starts, but with some ugly peripherals to go along with it, scaring fantasy managers away. Is there any value to be had with Vasquez, or are managers right to overlook him?

Originally an international free agent signing by the Yankees back in 2018, Vasquez was one of San Diego’s return pieces in the Juan Soto trade. Vasquez has a deep arsenal, using a six-pitch mix consisting of a cutter, four-seam fastball, sinker, sweeper, curveball, and changeup. He uses each pitch at least 6% of the time as well, so he mixes everything in to some degree.

Vasquez is a bit of a junkballer, mixing in three different fastballs along with his secondary stuff to deceive hitters. His most-used pitch is actually the cutter, which he throws 28.9% of the time. A 90.4 mph offering, Vasquez’s cutter boasts plus spin and vertical movement.

Batters are hitting .283 off the pitch with a .489 SLG and .396 wOBA. The expected stats aren’t much better, with a .279 xBA, .547 xSLG, and .411 xwOBA. With an 18-degree average launch angle against and just a 34.2% ground-ball rate, the cutter is susceptible to power. It’s also lacking in the strikeout department, with a pitiful 19.8% whiff rate and a 24.5% chase rate.

Generally, I try to avoid pitchers who use a cutter as their primary or in place of or in support of a bad fastball. Cutters lack the velocity and stability of a good four-seam or two-seam fastball, and they also lack the movement to consistently rack up strikeouts like a slider, sweeper, or curveball can.

There are plenty of pitchers who thrive with extraordinary cutters, but Vasquez isn’t that guy. It’s a rather middling pitch that excites no one.

What about the fastballs? Lots of pitchers who rely on cutters do so because their fastballs aren’t up to snuff. Is that the case with Vasquez? His four-seamer averages 92.9 mph on the gun with a 2348 RPM spin rate. He has painfully average movement, giving it a typical shape. Have a look at Vasquez’s movement profile (four-seamer in red).

It’s all bunched around league average, and with below-average velocity, it becomes a below-average pitch. Batters are hitting .263 off the pitch with a .421 SLG and .372 wOBA, but he does have a .263 xBA, .544 xSLG, and .408 xwOBA against the four-seamer too, along with a 93.7 mph average exit velocity. The four-seamer is yet another middling pitch for Vasquez.

Vasquez did make a change to his pitch sequencing in this game, relying more on his sinker than usual. He threw the sinker 28.1% of the time in this game, his highest usage of any game this season. This is a positive trend for Vasquez, as his sinker has performed leagues better than his four-seamer.

Batters are hitting .182 off the sinker with a .227 SLG and .230 wOBA. So, he can throw the sinker instead of the four-seamer to great success, right?

Not quite. Vasquez has some ugly expected stats on this pitch too, with a .298 xBA, .517 xSLG, and .380 xwOBA against. From a Statcast perspective, the pitch has been just as bad as the cutter and four-seamer. He has a 90.1 mph average exit velocity against the pitch and an 11-degree average launch angle against, too, so he’s not even producing groundballs with the sinker like we’d hope.

Is it all bad for Vasquez? Has he truly been all smoke and mirrors? One pitch that does stand out is his sweeper, which has confounded hitters this season. Opponents are hitting .128 with a .213 SLG and .155 wOBA against. The expected stats don’t portend doom either, with a .188 xBA, .318 xSLG, and .234 xwOBA. Vasquez even has a 30.6% whiff rate with the pitch, which is very solid considering his 13.1% strikeout rate overall.

He’s only thrown the pitch 15.7% of the time this season, but it’d be nice to see him incorporate it more often. It’s your best pitch, Randy, use it!

So, what kind of fantasy value does Vasquez have? Unfortunately, not much. His 13.1% K rate is the lowest among qualified pitchers; dead last. He also has the fifth-highest walk rate among qualified pitchers at 10.8%, and all pitchers ahead of him have a K rate above 20%. He can’t get strikeouts, and he’s a WHIP liability.

ERA estimators dislike him as well, as Vasquez has a 5.71 xERA, 5.51 FIP, 5.67 xFIP, and 5.58 SIERA. Good night! He pitches for a good team, but he rarely goes deep enough into games to earn a win or quality start, limiting his upside. There’s a low floor and a low ceiling here, which is a bad combination for fantasy baseball.

Verdict:

Vasquez is fine as a fifth starter for San Diego, but he has very little fantasy value outside of deep or NL-only leagues, and that’s only because of his volume. He has two bad fastballs and a bad cutter, none of which helps to cancel out the other. He is the worst strikeout pitcher in baseball and has a bloated walk rate to go along with it.

He’s surviving thanks to a .235 BABIP and 83% LOB rate, but once those normalize, his ERA will climb towards the estimators. In standard leagues, you can do better on waivers, even for a streamer.

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