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Brian Rudd evaluates starting pitchers who struggled last year to determine their fantasy baseball value and ADP heading into the 2021 MLB season.
We recently took a look at some starting pitcher risers, those who have seen their stock jump significantly since this time a year ago. Now, we'll analyze some pitchers who have gone the other way following a down year in 2020.
Last season consisted of just 60 games, so we're obviously looking at a much smaller sample than usual. There is still plenty of meaningful data that fantasy players can use as they prep for the upcoming season. A significant dip in velocity can be a huge red flag for a pitcher, while on the flip side, a two-month run of bad luck can lead to some misleading results.
Below are four pitchers who have seen their draft stock plummet since last draft season. Let's take a look at what went wrong in 2020, and whether or not they should be expected to right the ship in 2021.
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Robbie Ray, Toronto Blue Jays
Robbie Ray generated a great deal of preseason buzz after showing off a revamped delivery. His ADP in early Draft Champions leagues was 152, but by the time the Main Events rolled around in July, he was shooting up draft boards. Ray's ADP in those 38 drafts was 122, and he even went as early as pick 61 in one league.
Ray has typically been a frustrating pitcher to own, given all of the walks that he dishes out. But he took it to a whole new level in 2020. Among pitchers with 50 or more innings, he posted the 4th highest ERA and xFIP, and had the highest BB% in the league by a wide margin. In fact, the gap between his 17.9% BB% and the next highest (13.3%) was the same as the difference between the 2nd and 22nd highest BB% in the league.
Ray was absolutely brutal in seven starts with Arizona, where he allowed 31 hits and 31 walks (20.1% BB%) in 31 innings, resulting in a 2.00 WHIP and 7.84 ERA. He improved a bit following his trade to Toronto, though his performance there was still pretty poor. In five appearances (four starts) with the Jays, he put up a 4.79 ERA, along with a 14.4% BB%.
In addition to all of the control woes, Ray also continues to give up a ton of hard contact. In fact, in 2020, he ranked in the 9th percentile or worse in Exit Velocity, Hard Hit %, xwOBA, and Barrel %. If there is any silver lining, it's that Ray's velocity did rebound this past season, after it had fallen off quite a bit in 2019. While his K% slipped to his lowest mark since 2015, his 27.1% mark was still strong.
Ray's struggles have fantasy owners shying away this season, as his ADP in Draft Champions leagues so far sits at 342. He is sure to be an excellent strikeout source again in 2021, but is likely to continue doing damage in the ratio categories. Even so, Ray has proven to possess considerable upside in the past, and regained most of his lost velocity in 2020. At his current price, he makes for a pretty intriguing gamble, in case someone in Toronto can help him figure out a way to get the walks under control.
Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers
Matthew Boyd was a popular breakout candidate heading into 2020. Though his 4.56 ERA from 2019 was unimpressive, he had struck out more than 30 percent of the batters he faced, and many thought that his 1.9 HR/9 was due for some positive regression. As a result, he was a 10th round pick in terms of ADP during NFBC Main Event drafts, going off the board at pick 143.
Unfortunately for Boyd and his owners, home runs were even more of an issue during the shortened 2020 season. His 2.24 HR/9 was 3rd highest in the majors (Min. 50 IP), while his inflated 6.71 ERA was the second-highest mark in the league. Boyd has allowed a major-league-leading 81 home runs over the past three seasons, during which time he has recorded a 1.8 HR/9. Let's take a look at some of his Statcast data from each of those years.
Boyd did a nice job of suppressing hard contact in 2018, but while the swing-and-miss stuff has improved since then, batters have been making quality contact against him. His 2019 season was a mixed bag in that department, and in 2020, opposing hitters teed off on him. The 20 barrels Boyd allowed a season ago tied for third highest in all of baseball.
In Draft Champions contests so far this year, Boyd's price has fallen all the way down to pick 316, but is he worth investing in at the discounted rate? We have more than 700 innings worth of data to work with now, and Boyd has a 5.08 career ERA, along with a 1.7 HR/9. Count on him for the strikeouts, but know that he's likely to do more harm than good for your ERA and WHIP.
Madison Bumgarner, Arizona Diamondbacks
Madison Bumgarner posted a career-worst 3.90 ERA in 2019, but he had his highest K% since 2016, and topped 200 innings for the seventh time in nine seasons. It was clear he wasn't the ace he used to be, and fresh off signing a five-year deal with Arizona, he was going to a more hitter-friendly park. But Bumgarner entered 2020 looking like a fairly solid innings eater at the very least.
Bumgarner's ADP in the NFBC Main Event Drafts a season ago was 152, and he didn't come close to living up to his draft day cost. In nine starts, he put up an unsightly 6.48 ERA, and his fastball velocity was down 3 MPH from the previous season. Furthermore, Bumgarner's 15.8% K% and his 7.5% SwStr% were bottom 10 among all pitchers with 40-plus IP.
Coming off such a down year, Bumgarner's ADP has fallen significantly. In the early Draft Champions contests, he is going off the board at pick 391, behind the likes of pitchers such as Casey Mize, David Peterson, and Cal Quantrill.
Even though the 2020 season was a small sample, there are more than enough red flags to be wary of betting on a rebound from Bumgarner. Monitoring his velocity during spring training will be important, as it should go a long way in determining whether or not the left-hander will be worth targeting in drafts. If Bumgarner doesn't regain the zip on his fastball, he's likely in line for more struggles in 2021.
Luke Weaver, Arizona Diamondbacks
Oh look, another Arizona pitcher, no wonder they finished dead last in the National League West in 2020. Luke Weaver missed most of the 2019 season after suffering an elbow injury in May, but he put up a sub-3.00 ERA in his 12 starts. He also returned for a token appearance in September, which seemed to bode well for his health outlook heading into 2020.
Weaver's 2019 surface stats weren't fully supported by his peripherals, nor did his mediocre swinging strike rate back up his strong 26.5% K%. He also had some underwhelming Statcast data, as opposing batters had made a lot of quality contact against him in 2019. Even so, regression was baked in to Weaver's 2020 draft price, as the right-hander was going off the board as a 13th rounder in NFBC 15-team leagues.
Weaver's 2020 campaign was a disaster. He served up 18 earned runs and seven homers in just 13 2/3 innings across his first four starts, and ended the year with a 6.58 ERA in 12 outings. While Weaver's changeup generated whiffs at a 20% clip, his four-seamer got crushed to the tune of a .313 batting average and .583 slugging percentage.
There was surely some bad luck involved in Weaver's struggles, as his FIP and xFIP were 4.67 and 5.06, respectively. That's still not what you want from a pitcher on your roster, but his ERA was inflated more than it should have been thanks to a .349 BABIP and 63.2% LOB%, marks which are likely to normalize in 2021.
It seems pretty clear that Weaver's 2019 results were a little over his head, but he's not nearly as bad as his 2020 numbers would suggest. So far in NFBC Draft Champions leagues, he is an afterthought, going off the board at pick 415. Weaver's skills don't point to a great deal of upside, but the potential is there for a low 4's ERA along with a healthy dose of strikeouts. That makes him a fairly appealing late-round option.
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