X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Scene Change: Four Pitchers on New Teams

By Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA (Taijuan Walker) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Pierre Camus forecasts the 2017 fantasy baseball outlook for four starting pitchers (SP) who are joining new ballclubs this season.

The only thing constant is change. Change itself can be positive or negative, but in the case of a starting pitcher, especially one switching leagues, we need to delve deeper to understand what to expect.

New ballclub, new stadium, new expectations - all can affect a pitcher's value from one season to the next. Let's examine four pitchers who will be switching teams in 2017.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

Four Pitchers on New Teams

Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

The biggest move that came out of the winter meetings involved the Red Sox snagging another left-handed ace. Sale had spent his entire seven-year career with the pale-hosed Sox, finishing in the top six in Cy Young voting for five consecutive years. While that's pretty damn impressive, a change of scenery might actually be a good thing. The south siders were bad enough before they went into full-blown fire sale mode this offseason. Now, Sale joins a championship contender that gave Rick Porcello enough run support (7.6/game) to earn him a Cy Young award and provided 6.6 runs per game to David Price as well.

Although wins are too hard to reliably predict, there is a really good chance Sale maintains his 17-win level from last season, with a 20-win season on the radar. In terms of ballparks, he is leaving a rather pitcher-friendly environment. That doesn't mean we should anticipate big increases in his ratios though. Fenway does allow its share of extra-base hits to right-handed hitters, courtesy of the Green Monster, and ranked fourth in Park Factor for 2016. Much of that damage came from Boston's offense, so don't overreact to that figure. Sale has only made three starts at Fenway in his career, posting a 3.63 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Those numbers aren't too far ahead of the 3.34 ERA and 1.03 WHIP from last season. Sale is currently the fifth SP being drafted, according to NFBC data. Expectations are as high as ever for Sale and rightfully so.

 

Jason Hammel, Kansas City Royals

Hammel joins his sixth organization, going from the 2016 World Champs to the 2015 World Champs. Hammel was extremely solid last year, posting a 3.83 ERA  en route to winning 15 games. The reality is that he took a small step back from the previous season, especially in the control department. His 4.30 K/BB in 2015 dropped to 2.72. His 2.9 BB/9 mirrored his career average, so don't expect that number to improve by moving back to the American League.

While Hammel has far more experience pitching in the AL, a move to the junior circuit is never good for a pitcher's value. Worse news is that Kauffman Stadium ranked fifth in Ballpark Factor last year - a far cry from the confines of 25th-ranked Wrigley. Hammel's career 5.40 ERA at Kauffman is also one of the worst among all ballparks. He may have taken a later path to developing as a starter, but it appears Hammel's fantasy relevancy may be confined to AL-only leagues for the coming season.

 

Jaime Garcia, Atlanta Braves

After eight seasons with the Cardinals, Garcia joins the sudden infusion of veterans in Atlanta's starting rotation. He is the type of pitcher who does a lot with a little. Garcia has never surpassed eight K/9 and needs to limit baserunners to be successful. The main issue with him lately has been health. Garcia started 30 games last season, but was limited to 36 Major League starts between 2013-2015.

He isn't switching leagues, but he appears to be heading to a noticeably worse team. The Braves are seemingly all in on making a playoff run as they enter their new ballpark, but they have yet to prove that the blend of young prospects and aging veterans will work. If they still resemble the same team they were in the first half of 2016, the youth movement could take over permanently, making Garcia a possible trade chip. Initially, expect much of the same from Garcia that he's displayed in his career - an ERA just under 4.00 with less appealing control ratios and a ceiling of 13 wins.

 

Taijuan Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks

Going to Arizona hasn't been the best career move for starting pitchers lately. The D-backs hope that Walker isn't another Shelby Miller, but that remains to be seen. He is going from a pitcher-friendly park in Seattle to the second-best hitter's park in the league. In fact, Chase Field has an even higher HR factor than Coors Field, but is still second to Yankee Stadium in that respect. The long ball has becoming a bigger problem for Walker, as his HR/9 jumped to 1.8 last season. The prospect of seeing him serve up 30+ gopher balls shouldn't inspire fantasy owners.

Ironically, the trade to bring him over also weakened his offensive support. Jean Segura was one of the few bright spots for the Diamondbacks, but he will be in Seattle this season. Walker is being drafted just inside the top 250 overall right now, so he won't cost you much if you think his talent is worth a late round flier. The change of scenery doesn't figure to do him many favors, however, so tread carefully.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Cindric

Could Austin Cindric Legitimately Contend at Texas This Weekend?
Ryan Blaney

Is Worth Rostering For Texas DFS Lineups On Sunday
Joey Logano

Struggling to Find Speed at Texas
Tyler Reddick

Should Be Highly Considered For DFS At Texas This Week
Daniel Suarez

Has Been One of the Best at Texas in Next Gen
Denny Hamlin

Might Have Another Quality Texas Start This Week
AJ Allmendinger

Has Shown Speed at Texas This Weekend
NASCAR

What Should Fantasy Players Do With Bubba Wallace At Texas?
Brad Keselowski

Is A Fantastic Driver For Texas DFS Lineups
Alex Bowman

May Be A Sneaky Tournament Option
Josh Berry

Could Josh Berry Be Utilized In DFS Tournaments For Texas?
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Roster Michael McDowell At Texas?
Erik Jones

Is Best Suited For DFS Tournaments At Texas
Ryan Preece

Is A Favorable DFS Option For Texas
Carson Hocevar

Won First Pole, but Pit Crew Might Hold Him Back
Christopher Bell

Shaky Intermediate Performances Suggest That DFS Players Should Stay Away
Ross Chastain

Poor Qualifying and Improved Finishing Makes Him a Texas DFS Must Have
Chase Briscoe

a Sneaky Option That Could Pay Great DFS Dividends
Ty Gibbs

Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration Despite Improved Performance
Kyle Busch

Should Run Better than Recent Texas Record
Chris Buescher

Snakebitten in Home State
Ivica Zubac

Has A Double-Double On Saturday Night
Kawhi Leonard

Scores 22 Points In Loss To Denver
James Harden

Struggles On The Scoring End On Saturday
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Leads Denver To A Game 7 Win
Kyle Stowers

Hits Game-Winning Grand Slam
Jake Meyers

Homers Twice, Drives In Seven On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Practices Fully Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Sunday's Game 1
Mattias Ekholm

Out For Round 2
Corbin Burnes

To Skip Next Start With Shoulder Inflammation
Pavel Dorofeyev

Misses Practice, Remains Day-To-Day
Anthony Volpe

Feels Pop In Shoulder, May Undergo MRI
Sebastian Aho

Back At Practice Saturday
Mark Scheifele

A Game-Time Call For Sunday's Game 7
Ross Colton

To Remain Out For Game 7
Corey Seager

Activated From Injured List, Batting Third As Designated Hitter Saturday
Mackenzie Blackwood

Seeks To Overcome Road Struggles In Game 7
Jake Oettinger

Looks To Bounce Back Saturday
Detroit Lions

Jakobie Keeney-James Signs With Detroit
Tommy Edman

Heading To 10-Day Injured List
Savion Williams

Packers Sign Third-Round Rookie Savion Williams
Jackson Merrill

To Rehab At Double-A, Expected To Return Monday
Philadelphia Eagles

Mac McWilliams Signs Rookie Deal With Eagles
Joe Noteboom

Baltimore Adds Joe Noteboom
Merrill Kelly

Still Dealing With Cramping
Fernando Tatis Jr.

In Saturday's Lineup
New York Mets

Mets, Cardinals Postponed On Saturday
John Williams

Packers Sign John Williams, Five Other Draft Picks
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez Out On Saturday
Jalen Ramsey

Ravens A Candidate To Trade For Jalen Ramsey?
Amari Cooper

Cowboys Could Be Best Fit For Amari Cooper
Triston Casas

Diagnosed With Ruptured Left Patellar Tendon
Coby Mayo

Promoted To Major Leagues
Yordan Alvarez

Scratched With Hand Inflammation
Clarke Schmidt

Scratched On Saturday With Side Soreness
Miro Heiskanen

Unavailable For Game 7
Riley Greene

Makes History, Homers Twice In The Ninth Inning
Jason Robertson

Will Not Play In Game 7
Connor Hellebuyck

Continues To Struggle Away From Home
Cal Raleigh

Slugs Two Homers, Collects Five RBI On Friday
Cole Perfetti

Nets A Power-Play Goal In Game 6 Loss
Jordan Binnington

Outstanding At Home Again
Cam Fowler

Notches 10th Postseason Point
Philip Broberg

Records Two Points In Friday's Win
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Hits Two More Homers, Cubs Trounce Brewers
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Sign 17 Undrafted Free Agents
Elijah Arroyo

Recovered From Knee Injury
Hunter Greene

Shuts Down Nationals, Fans 12 Over Six Innings Pitched
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Add Nine Rookie Free Agents
Philadelphia Eagles

Jihaad Campbell Not Taking Part In Rookie Minicamp
Jerome Ford

Agrees To Pay Cut
Green Bay Packers

Jaire Alexander Not Participating In Voluntary Offseason Work
Christian Watson

Working Hard In Recovery From Torn ACL
Triston Casas

At The Hospital, Expected To Be Out A While
Fernando Tatis Jr.

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Forearm
Damian Lillard

Undergoes Successful Surgery
Sebastian Aho

Misses Practice For Personal Reasons
Eric Robinson

Misses Friday's Practice
Oliver Bjorkstrand

Recovering From Surgery
Victor Hedman

Nursing Broken Right Foot
Brandon Hagel

Diagnosed With Concussion
Tyler Tucker

To Remain Out On Friday
Nikolaj Ehlers

Expected To Return Friday
Ross Dwelley

Returns To 49ers
San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco Adds D.J. Humphries
Green Bay Packers

Collin Oliver Signs Four-Year Deal With Green Bay
Philadelphia Eagles

Smael Mondon Jr. Inks Rookie Deal With Philly
Deiveson Figueiredo

Returns To Action
Cory Sandhagen

Set For UFC Des Moines Main Event
Bo Nickal

Set For Co-Main Event
Reinier de Ridder

An Underdog At UFC Des Moines
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks To Win Second Consecutive Fight
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Daniel Marcos

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Hunter Renfrow

Ulcerative Colitis Kept Hunter Renfrow Out Of NFL In 2024
Montel Jackson

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Sign First-Rounder Tyler Booker To Four-Year Deal
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Trying To Get Something Done With Trey Hendrickson?
Cameron Smotherman

Set For His Second UFC Bout
Serhiy Sidey

A Favorite At UFC Des Moines
Mason Jones

Set To Open Up UFC Des Moines Main Card
Jeremy Stephens

Returns For UFC Des Moines
Isaiah Stewart

Out On Thursday
Amen Thompson

Fills Stat Sheet In Game 5 Victory
Stephen Curry

Held To 13 Points Wednesday Night
Anthony Edwards

Struggles To Score In Series-Clincher
Rudy Gobert

Comes Up Big In Game 5 Victory
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Battles Back Issue In Game 5 Loss
LeBron James

Undecided On Future
Derrick Jones Jr.

Fine For Thursday
Maxi Kleber

Available For Lakers Debut Wednesday
Jonathan Kuminga

Out With An Illness
Jimmy Butler III

Ready To Play Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

In Danger Of Missing Another Game Thursday
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Build Off Last Week's Runner-Up Finish
Gary Woodland

Could See Success At CJ CUP
Cam Davis

Making First Appearance At TPC Craig Ranch
Sam Burns

Could Be Due For A Great Week At TPC Craig Ranch
Patrick Rodgers

A Solid Value Play At TPC Craig Ranch
Jamal Murray

Explodes For 43 Points In Game 5
Carson Young

Looking To Recapture Form At CJ Cup
Jayson Tatum

Fires In 35 Points In Series-Clincher
Matt McCarty

An Intriguing Value Play At CJ Cup
Will Zalatoris

Searching For Putting Form At CJ Cup
Sam Stevens

A Risky Play With Upside At CJ Cup
PGA

Sungjae Im Riding Momentum Into CJ Cup
Ben Griffin

Looking To Stay Hot After First Career Win
Jake Knapp

Looking For More Success At TPC Craig Ranch
Mackenzie Hughes

Is An Interesting Option At CJ Cup
Aldrich Potgieter

Trending Downward For CJ Cup
Taylor Pendrith

Plays Well In Houston Recently
PGA

Niklas Norgaard May Not Be Cut Out For Texas
Rasmus Hojgaard

Could Be Up Or Down In Texas
Scottie Scheffler

The Untouchable Favorite At CJ Cup
Tom Kim

A Popular Name To Avoid At TPC Craig Ranch
Austin Eckroat

Looking To Find Success Again At TPC Craig Ranch
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied For 59th At Corales Puntacana Championship
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF