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Welcome to our Saints vs. Texans fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em matchups analysis article for Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season.
Read our matchups analysis, player breakdowns, and lineup recommendations for the matchup and set those winning lineups. Good luck RotoBallers!
New Orleans at Houston Texans
Spread: Saints -1.5
Implied Total: Saints (21.75) vs. Texans (20.25)
Pace: Saints (16th) vs. Texans (5th)
Saints Off. DVOA: 1.6% Pass (21st), -12.9% Rush (21st)
Texans Off. DVOA: 37.8% Pass (6th), -32.5% Rush (32nd)
Saints Def. DVOA: -12.5% Pass (7th), -19.1% Rush (10th)
Texans Def. DVOA: 8.7% Pass (18th), -5.8% Rush (22nd)
Matchups We Love
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
As we mentioned earlier, the Texans made a conscious effort to slow down the Falcons on the ground, which opened up opportunities through the air. It's possible they repeat that strategy this week. However, the Saints are a more balanced team with the strength of their offense likely being their receiving corps. That's not to take away from Kamara as a receiver, but rather to highlight their lack of a proven grinder in the backfield with Jamaal Williams still hurt.
New Orleans dominated the Patriots. Their offense did enough while their defense pitched a shutout. The game script enabled them to tote the rock 42 times. It's been an area where Houston is vulnerable and it's possible the Saints are leading again in this one, despite facing a more competent offense. Kendre Miller didn't see a carry until they were up 14-0, and eight of his 12 carries came in the fourth quarter as part of cleanup duty. Kamara slots into the top 20 and Miller is a stash while we wait to see his involvement.
Matchups We Hate
Dameon Pierce (RB, HOU)
Houston spent the entire game within six points or leading, which kept Pierce in play. He accounted for 100% of the RB rushing attempts and caught the only RB reception, which is by far the highest workshare he's seen this season. It's a great sign for his usage. The concern for this week is the matchup against New Orleans. They're No. 2 in defensive EPA per rush, No. 10 in rush DVOA, and they've allowed the fifth-fewest points to running backs on the season. The volume will need to keep Pierce afloat as a flex option.
C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU)
Stroud kept his streak alive with zero turnovers. They got back a couple of their offensive linemen but they lost Tank Dell to a concussion, which limited their explosiveness. Stroud still aired it out 35 times, but overall they only ran 58 total plays, which was 22nd on the week. Dell is trending towards being out, which removes one of Stroud's top weapons against an above-average defense. It's best to pump the brakes on the rookie sensation this week and look somewhere else for a streamer if you can.
Derek Carr (QB, NO)
Carr played within the confines of the offense, attempting only 26 passes. The longest drive he led was 62 yards, taking advantage of the outstanding performance by his defense. The matchup is about average, but until he proves he's willing and able to throw for 250-plus yards and two scores, he's best avoided.
Other Matchups
Nico Collins (WR, HOU)
Collins was already establishing himself as the alpha in the offense, but Dell's absence would cement that this week. Marshon Lattimore remains a talented cornerback, but it's actually his counterpart, Isaac Yiadom, who boasts the highest coverage grade of all CBs, according to PFF. That tandem will pose a problem for Collins and potentially Noah Brown, who has been designated to return from Injured Reserve. That might open up opportunities for Robert Woods as a shorter depth-of-target receiver, but he lacks a true ceiling. Collins falls outside the top 24 given the matchup while Woods is a flex, especially in full-PPR formats. It could be an opportunity for John Metchie III to carve out a larger role as well.
Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU)
The other player who benefits from Dell missing time is Schultz, who found the end zone and led the team in every receiving category. We saw him excel with Dallas, so it's possible he could soak up enough volume to be a top-12 tight end. Unfortunately, the Saints are a brutal matchup, so he's more of a streamer.
Saints WRs
The news came out that Chris Olave was dealing with a toe injury during warmups. He still led the position in snaps (79%) and routes run (30), but he had just five targets, two of which he caught. Thankfully, one was in the end zone, somewhat preserving his fantasy value. Michael Thomas led the way with four catches for 65 yards. Ultimately, they didn't need to take any chances, so they limited their passing attempts and bled out the clock. It'll be a more competitive game script, which should mean a better day for this group, although the matchup is a tough one. He's a top-30 receiver along with Thomas, who is averaging nearly eight targets per game. Rashid Shaheed remains a boom-bust flex option.
Notable Injuries
Tank Dell (concussion)
Juwan Johnson (calf)
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