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Which Of The Sweet Sixteen Teams Has The Best Chance Of Winning The 2025 NCAA Tournament?
16 teams remain in the hunt for the 2025 NCAA college basketball championship. We went through a regular season where there were two dominant teams for most of the season. One of them faltered and the other suffered an injury to the star player. Does that even the field a little more?
We’ll take a look at the one thing (some teams have more than one) that could prevent the team from cutting down the nets in San Antonio and living on in the annals of NCAA history. This isn’t to say that these things will happen. This is just saying that if a certain team loses, this will most likely be the reason why. Keep that in mind while filling out your second-chance brackets.
The Fatal Flaw For Arkansas
Arkansas has not only survived without Adou Thiero, but they have also thrived. Freshman sensation Boogie Fland hasn’t reclaimed his starting job, but he has been a force off the bench. Arkansas may elect to do the same with Thiero since Trevon Brazile and Jonas Aidoo have been outstanding in his absence. The emergence of Brazile, Aidoo, D.J. Wagner, and Johnell Davis due to the injuries to Thiero and Fland has made this a better team. The presence of the Hogs in the Sweet 16 should shock anyone.
It’s hard to compare this to the team from November-January. It’s such a different mix. That’s not to say that this incarnation of Arkansas is without flaws. The biggest one is three-point shooting. No one realizes how bad the Hogs have been from downtown in the NCAA Tournament because they are the lowest remaining seed in the tournament. Arkansas has only made 8-of-43 from distance in the first two games. That’s a terrible 15.7%. Arkansas has been able to get away with it thanks to a good defense and great work on the boards, but a date with a Texas Tech team that also excels defensively is going to be difficult if Arkansas can’t hit some deep shots.
Mississippi's Fatal Flaw
It’s hard to find a flaw with Mississippi through the first two games of the tournament. They faced two major-conference teams and scored a combined 162 points. Ole Miss has gotten it done with great shooting during the tournament. They aren’t much above the regular season averages, but it’s enough to give them the illusion of a really good team. That said, it’s just an illusion. They have a major flaw.
Jaemyn Brakefield moving himself to the bench has been great for Mississippi. He can play anywhere on the court, so the Rebels basically run six deep. The lack of depth is a concern against a team who will run 10 like Michigan State does. Mississippi has just 48 minutes from the bench outside the top six players (the starters and Brakefield) in two games of the tournament. They are all split up between two guys (Davon Barnes and Eduardo Klafke). That means Ole Miss runs eight deep at best, but it’s really only six. Can this team survive a team like Michigan State who has nine guys that consistently play over 10 minutes?
BYU's Fatal Flaw
You would never know it by watching the end of the Wisconsin game, but BYU’s bugaboo all season has been free-throw shooting. You can say that this is a different team since January, and you would be right. However, BYU shot just 67.9% from the line in the opening game against VCU. The 15-for-16 performance against Wisconsin is the aberration. The team has shot better than 80% from the line in nine of the 12 games during their hot streak, but it still at just 70.8% on the season. What if those problems pop back up?
Michigan's Fatal Flaw
The twin towers of Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf have dominated up front for Michigan in the first two games. Can they do it for four more? Great shooting off the bench from Roddy Gayle Jr. and the two big guys up front led Michigan on the run through the Big Ten Tournament and into the Sweet 16. So what is Michigan’s flaw? They haven’t shown one in a while.
There is still something simmering below the surface. The Wolverines’ turnover ratio has been -7 through the first two games despite looking great against the Aggies. Looking at potential opponents, Auburn gives it away as much as they take it, but a third game against Michigan State could spell trouble. The Wolverines lost by a combined 30 points to Sparty in the regular season, partially due to a negative turnover ratio.
Purdue's Fatal Flaw
Coming into the tournament, it was Purdue’s slide down the stretch in the Big Ten. We learned little from Purdue’s wins over High Point and McNeese. The Boilermakers had the easiest road to the second weekend. Purdue — who was 14th in the Big Ten in rebounding this season — outrebounded McNeese and High Point 86-48.
Purdue’s biggest flaw coming into the tournament was rebounding, and at first glance, they have addressed that. Camden Heide has been big off the bench, but is it all smoke and mirrors against two smaller teams? We’ll find out a lot against Houston tomorrow. The Cougars are also smaller than many, but they are tenacious on the glass.
Arizona's Fatal Flaw
Arizona was a team that came into the tournament with glowing metrics. They led the Big 12 (16) in points and rebounds. My complaint against them was repeated early exits in the last 30 years, but there was no substance behind it. An overreliance on Caleb Love is a dangerous place to be, but when Love is on, this team can beat anyone.
They showed that in the first weekend, but it was more than that. Arizona has dominated the inside with Tobe Awaka. They outrebounded the first two teams 97-59. Where is the flaw? At the foul line. Arizona only made 20-of-34 attempts from the charity stripe. If Arizona manages to stay close against Duke, the foul shooting is a major concern. Arizona was second in the conference in free throw shooting this season. Why the sudden collapse?
Maryland's Fatal Flaw
Maryland’s road was about as easy as Purdue’s. The Terps manhandled Grand Canyon but struggled with Mountain West Tournament winner Colorado State. The only buzzer-beater of the first weekend came in this game as Maryland escaped.
The Terrapins were very balanced in the opening weekend and the turnovers that plagued them at times during the season weren’t there. Maryland turned it over just 14 times in two games. As with Purdue, the major issue facing this team coming into the tournament seems to have been addressed. Florida forced 12 turnovers per game this year. We’re going to quickly find out if Maryland addressed the issue or not.
Kentucky's Fatal Flaw
Coming into the tournament, my main concern with Kentucky was their defense, specifically on the interior. They have defended the three-point line very well this year, but the interior was still a concern. The Illini converted 19-of-30 shots inside the arc. If it weren’t for a horrible shooting day for Will Riley, it could have been even worse.
On top of that, Kentucky was almost outrebounded by a much smaller Troy team and was punished on the glass by Illinois. The Wildcats beat Tennessee twice by getting them out of their comfort zone and shooting well from downtown. That is a recipe that could work again. However, what happens when they run into a great defensive team like Houston? Kentucky’s three-point shooting can’t carry the lack of interior defense against a team like Houston.
Texas Tech's Fatal Flaw
I got after Purdue and Maryland for easy roads, but Tech’s might have been even easier. Wilmington is a solid team that faded late and Drake did beat a good Missouri team. The Red Raiders did little to alleviate my concerns with their interior. Wilmington outrebounded the Red Raiders. The Tech middle dominated Drake, but the first two games of the tournament exposed something else I missed with Tech down the stretch.
This team gets very little bench production with Kerwin Walton in the starting lineup. Federiko Federiko and Kevin Overton were the only bench players to play against Wilmington and they scored a combined nine points. They only scored three against Drake. The lack of bench production could be a huge problem against an Arkansas team with a very good bench.
Tennessee's Fatal Flaw
It’s Kentucky. Kentucky beat the Vols twice by a combined 16 points. Is it all mental, or is there something that stands out as to why Tennessee can’t get over the hump? Kentucky made half of their 48 three-point attempts in the two games against Tennessee. The Vols hit just 14 of 63 tries from deep against Kentucky.
Tennessee is the team that has been hitting threes in the tournament so far. Tennessee allowed opponents to hit just 28.3% from deep during the regular season. It’s so simple, right? Just do to Kentucky what you did to everyone else. Tennessee is one of the more well-rounded teams in the tournament, so I’m sticking with Kentucky as the fatal flaw. If they solve whatever curse the Wildcats have on them, Tennessee could win the whole thing.
Michigan State's Fatal Flaw
Not having a superstar is far from a fatal flaw, but I do have concerns as to where the offense will come from if the team absolutely needs a bucket. Jase Richardson may be a superstar by this time next year (if he sticks around), but he’s not there yet. Why is this important? Because Michigan State was the worst three-point shooting team in the conference.
They haven’t improved in the tournament either. Michigan State is 14-for-41 from beyond the arc in the two games. That’s just 25.4%. They were able to survive the first weekend despite poor outside shooting, but they won’t beat two SEC teams to make it to San Antonio without drastic improvement from outside.
Alabama's Fatal Flaw
My knock on the Tide coming into the tournament was overreliance on three-point shooting. They got away with it last year thanks to efficiency from beyond the arc. They don’t have that this season. Bama made just 28.6% of threes against Robert Morris and wasn’t much better against St. Mary’s, but I did notice something. Alabama shot a lot fewer threes than usual. Alabama shot 29.3 threes per game during the season. They took 38 combined in the first two games.
The paradigm shift in the offense had a lot to do with Alabama making a concerted effort to get the ball inside to Clifford Omoruyi and Mouhamed Diabate. They were wildly successful and it opened up more shots for others. Alabama may not be able to do the same against BYU. If they can’t it’s back to that same reliance on three-point shots. They won’t make it out of the region without either dominating the paint again or hitting a lot more shots from outside.
Florida's Fatal Flaw
It’s hard to talk about flaws when you’re rolling like Florida is, but I’ve got bad news. The same fatal flaw that was there in the regular season was still there in the second round. In fact, Florida was damn lucky to beat Connecticut and that flaw was on display for everyone to see down the stretch.
It’s the free-throw shooting. The Gators were 227th in the nation from the stripe and were even worse against UConn (22-for-34). If Florida were to make it to the Final Four, they would be the worst free-throw shooting team to do so since Memphis in 2008. It will cost Florida sooner or later. It does every team that struggles to put in the free points.
Houston's Fatal Flaw
Coming into the tournament, Houston’s biggest issue seemed to be in half-court sets. It wasn’t against Iowa State in the Big 12 (16) Final and it wasn’t against Gonzaga in the second round’s most intriguing matchup. So where does that leave us? Does Houston have a problem?
For the purposes of this exercise, yes. Houston does have a little bit of a problem. They turn the ball over too much. That’s what cost them against Texas Tech, but it’s a minor nitpick. Looking at the matchups that Houston could have for the rest of the tournament, it’s the same as Tennessee, except that Houston doesn’t have a team that’s kryptonite for them. If Houston faces Duke, Duke’s interior will be a problem. Until then, Houston matches up well with everyone else. However, Houston does turn the ball over more than Tennessee. If Tennessee solves Kentucky, the Vols can exploit the turnovers against the Cougars.
Duke's Fatal Flaw
Just by raw numbers, Duke doesn’t have one. The losses to Kansas and Kentucky hardly count since Cooper Flagg was less than a month into his brief college career. His ankle concern coming into the tournament isn’t an issue — Flagg had 32 points and 16 rebounds in 51 minutes in the first weekend.
Looking at the most recent loss to Clemson, the Tigers dominated the glass in that game and smashed Duke in the paint with Viktor Lakhin. Looking at Duke’s upcoming matchups, Tobe Awaka could be a problem, but he’s not an offensive force. If they get out of that, Michigan, Florida, or Auburn could cause problems in the championship game. No other team they face after Arizona has the size to bug Duke inside. The only thing that may stop them before then is the lack of experience with four freshman starters. A veteran Houston or Tennessee team could be a problem.
Auburn's Fatal Flaw
Auburn scuffled down the stretch because teams figured out how to handle Johni Broome. Creighton did as well. Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner held Broome to just eight points on 4-of-13 from the field. The bad news for Creighton was that Kalkbrenner was too busy with Broome and no one could stop Tahaad Pettiford.
Can Auburn count on the freshman to carry the offense when the next team inevitably slows down Broome? That’s doubtful. The upcoming matchup with Michigan is a nightmare for Auburn. If they can survive the Wolverines, this team is Final Four bound. Florida is the other team that could derail the top overall seed’s title hopes. Duke also beat Auburn back at the end of November.
