RADIO
It has been a pleasant few days in Hilton Head this week for the RBC Heritage. A short, three-hour drive from Augusta, Harbour Town Golf Links has some of the pageantry and traditions that The Masters does, which makes it a decent segway event from the year's first major. Getting geared up for such an important event directly following the most anticipated tournament all year is a little hard. Nevertheless, tomorrow's final round holds important implications for the PGA Tour season.
Si Woo Kim holds a narrow, one-shot lead over Justin Thomas and Andrew Novak. Statistics are an interesting conundrum this week, as having a decent all-around performance is much more beneficial than being uber-proficient in one or two areas. However, the top performers in two of the first three rounds have done so with strokes gained on approach. That was the MO for this event at the start of the week, and will likely be a heavy focus for tomorrow.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round are also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
The weather hasn't changed much over the first three days. Sunday is set to be much of the same, with winds worth thinking about but not enough to get things out of hand. The little variation throughout the day doesn't mean much for DFS selections. Stats are the sole priority tomorrow, which should make picks a little more cut-and-dry.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys with a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Justin Thomas started the week on fire, posting a first-round 61. He's struggled with ball striking in the two rounds since, resulting in negative strokes gained on approach and off the tee. The middle of tournaments is where J.T. has struggled the most this season, but he ranks 14th in final round stroke average (68.78).
There have been many close calls over the last several months that haven't come to fruition, and while tomorrow will yet again be another test, the payoff will eventually happen. Look for Thomas to make a valiant effort.
Other Options: Scottie Scheffler
$9,000+
Favorite Play: It has been a solid week for Tommy Fleetwood, but not necessarily in the way we would have guessed at the start of the week. The Englishman leads the field in strokes gained around the green (+1.41) and is ranked 15th in strokes gained putting (+0.81).
Fleetwood has been a strong ball striker this season, ranking 14th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained tee to green (+1.061). Given his lengthy and storied struggles of winning in the U.S., it's hard to see him chasing down the lead tomorrow. But I expect him to do enough to be a valuable Showdown asset.
Stop scrolling.
And enjoy 90 seconds of @TommyFleetwood1 playing golf, with only natural sounds.
(I would pay good money to watch golf like this....) pic.twitter.com/ZF4fMHLfWH
— Jamie Kennedy (@jamierkennedy) January 15, 2025
Other Options: Xander Schauffele, Russell Henley
$8,000+
Favorite Play: After a slow start to the week, Maverick McNealy has been a force at Harbour Town in rounds two and three, as he's managed to gain six shots between his putter and irons over the last two days. Now he finds himself ranked near or inside the top 25 in all strokes gained metrics for the week.
He's certainly got the game capable of playing well here, and he's as deadly as anyone else near the lead to make a run tomorrow.
Other Options: Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger, Viktor Hovland
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Brian Campbell is making the most of his week in Hilton Head, as the 32-year-old ranks third in the field in strokes gained around the green (+0.98) and seventh in strokes gained on approach (+1.18). Statistically, he's doing exactly what's needed for success at Harbour Town.
He currently sits at T13 with a good chance of picking up a much-needed top 10 tomorrow, having not done much other than his win in Mexico earlier this year. If the putter can find any inkling of magic, an impressive number is in the cards.
"All I wanted to do was see him smile with the trophy and that was my dream." 🥹
Brian Campbell's girlfriend was emotional after his first win @MexicoOpenGolf. pic.twitter.com/I1uPZbnNY2
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 24, 2025
Other Options: Andrew Novak, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tom Hoge
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Karl Vilips has had difficulty closing out his rounds at Harbour Town this week. His opening round got squirly with two bogeys and a double-bogey on three of his closing seven holes. Saturday's round ended with a deflating triple-bogey on 18 to erase any hopes of making a meaningful push tomorrow.
Still, the Aussie is leading the field in GIR percentage (79.6%), and ranks eighth in strokes gained on approach (+1.04) and 24th in putting (+0.32). While his contention hopes may be shot, he's certainly playing well enough to break into a top 20 finish on the week if he can avoid the disastrous holes.
Other Options: Ryo Hisatsune
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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