RADIO
Coming off two straight weeks of brutal, unforgiving golf, this week's Travelers Championship has returned to the usual birdie fest most have come to expect on tour. As most important tournaments do, the last Signature Event of the year has gathered the game's hottest players and will produce tons of drama in the final round. Tom Kim holds a one-shot lead over Scottie Scheffler and Akshay Bhatia after a weather-involved third round.
Getting it in good positions off the tee has been crucial for success this week, as four of the top six players on the leaderboard rank inside the top 15 in strokes gained off the tee. TPC River Highlands is one of the most scorable venues on the PGA Tour, and that fact was on full display during the third round when Cameron Young posted a 59 for just the 13th time in tour history amid numerous other low scores. So, finding guys to grind out even par rounds for the day won't cut it here. We need guys that will go as low as possible in the final round, but, keep in mind that boom-or-bust plays often come with a few kicks in the shins.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. The usual strategy is finding guys who played well the previous day(s), particularly the players who have shown strong ability with their irons. However, it's also important to make roster decisions that give you ownership leverage over other players in your contest. This is usually done by taking riskier players on the board who haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions & Tee Times
Conditions at TPC River Highlands have been uber-getable all week, and nothing will change for Sunday's final round. Tour officials have decided to move tee times up tomorrow in anticipation of inclement weather, with groups going off from 6:50 am EDT to 11:15 am EDT. There may be some advantage to putting a dew sweeper or two in lineups, but only ones you think can post something ridiculous like Young did today.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys that have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday, and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point. Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, and finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite play: Colin Morikawa struggled on the greens in round 3 (-1.09 strokes gained putting), but still managed to shoot -4 on the day. His ball striking with the irons has progressed every round this week, though his driver has inversely been heading in the other direction. I'm leaning into his 15th rank on the season in strokes gained off the tee (+0.539) and believe he's as ready as anyone at the top to make a run at it tomorrow.
This spin from @Collin_Morikawa 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/RCuoX4L3Y8
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 22, 2024
Other options: If you can somehow get to Scottie Scheffler's price, this feels like the typical scenario where he puts his stamp on the day early, and is in full control by the turn.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Hideki Matsuyama has had a rough week with the irons compared to how he's struck them all season. The 15th-ranked player in strokes gained on approach (+0.503) is currently 61st in the field for the same statistic, although I look for that to change tomorrow. He had a strong start to the week with an opening round 66 but has struggled to find momentum in the two rounds since. The Japanese golfing great is known to stir things up on Sunday, even if he's too far back to care.
Other options: Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood
$8,000+
Favorite play: Russell Henley has certainly had a down week, and having a 7:20 am tee time is all the proof you need. However, the former Georgia Bulldog showed a sign of life today as he posted a -3 67 to climb into a tie for 61st with one round left to play. Henley was a fairly popular play this week, and while a good finish overall may be a little too far out of the question, he still possesses a ceiling worth taking a shot on.
Other options: Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im
$7,000+
Favorite play: Austin Eckroat is putting on a clinic from tee to green, but couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat with his putter. It's impressive that he's ranked third in the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.45) and sixth in strokes gained off the tee (+1.02), yet he's one shot away from falling outside the top 30. If he can make anything tomorrow, he should give us something worth having.
Feeling right at home.
Austin Eckroat looks forward to making memories this week at the Travelers Championship.
(Sponsored by @TravelersChamp) pic.twitter.com/zlq7MWV2Vi
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 22, 2024
Other options: Tom Hoge, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ben Griffin
$6,000+
Favorite play: The bandwagon for Michael Thorbjornsen has been picking up loads of steam since finishing first in the PGA Tour University standings this spring. He's making his first PGA Tour start this week in Connecticut, and after a rocky start that left him at +2 to end Thursday's round, he has turned things on; playing his last 36 holes at -10. Being so naive to the hustle and bustle of life on tour, he is the ultimate boom or bust option and will most likely decide the fate of many of my lineup builds.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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