RADIO
Hello Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and ready for another great year of professional golf. Showdown is back for another season on DraftKings and the PGA Tour. So naturally, we are back to hopefully try and lead you in the right direction for those either looking to pick up where their escapade ended in 2024 or those looking to get their feet wet in this particular DFS format.
The new season begins at the familiar Plantation Course at Kapalua for the Sentry Tournament. Hideki Matsuyama is going into Sunday's final round with a one-shot lead over Collin Morikawa. Both guys in the final group should be of no surprise to anyone who followed golf last year given their fixture atop many leaderboards in that time that combined for two wins and 16 top 10 finishes.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Much, if not all, of the defense at the Plantation Course is wind-reliant. Players are held more in check with double-digit mph winds, and ridiculous scores like we saw on Saturday are seemingly everywhere when it isn't there. Sunday's forecast looks similar, leaving the possibility of success feeling more like a lottery pick than a smart business decision.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Collin Morikawa looks poised to capture his first victory in 14 months. He may still be looking up to start his final round, but statistically, he's the only player in the field ranked inside the top 10 in all strokes gained metrics. Seemingly, no matter whose model you studied or what strategy was applied to this week, the 27-year-old's name would have come up.
Aside from a couple of names, the top of the leaderboard isn't stacked, and the number trail leads back to the young veteran's door.
Other Options: Sungjae Im
$9,000+
Favorite Play: It was a poor start to the week for Patrick Cantlay, as the 32-year-old shot an opening round 74(+1) at a course that he is notorious for having great history. However, he has since followed it up with rounds of 64-65 the past two days to climb back inside the top 20.
There's likely little hope of chasing down that many players at nine shots back, though the three 62s shot on Saturday prove that scores larger than his deficit are out there.
Could Patrick Cantlay sneak a Top 5 finish?
He's moved up 12 spots today to T11 (-3 on his first six holes)
Top 5 +900 @FDSportsbook pic.twitter.com/ZdsIj0iHOF
— Golfbet (@Golfbet) January 4, 2025
Other Options: Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Corey Conners
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Max Greyserman's game is rapidly gaining momentum since closing out his 2024 schedule with four top-5 finishes in his final six starts between the regular season and Fall Series events. He looks to have brought that same level of play to Maui as he tries to add another high finish to his young PGA Tour career.
It is good to see the older second-year PGA Tour player not rely so heavily on the putter this week and instead has found success in other areas of the bag, ranking third in strokes gained around the green (+0.85) and ninth in strokes gained off the tee (+0.86) this week.
Other Options: Adam Scott, Tony Finau, Cameron Young,
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Will Zalatoris had a solid showing at his first appearance here in 2023, and he appears poised to have another one yet again, as he finds himself in a tie for sixth position, eight shots back of the lead.
If not for a flat second round, the injury-plagued Tour star may have been leading this tournament, as he ranks inside the top 10 for the week in strokes gained putting (+1.48) and around the green (+0.62). Most of us want to know if he can return to the time in his game before the injuries piled up, and a big finish here on Sunday could take a big step in answering that question.
Will Zalatoris is in a good headspace after putting on 15 pounds of muscle in the offseason. pic.twitter.com/3TpPp5jdIN
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) January 3, 2025
Other Options: Harry Hall, Thomas Detry, Si Woo Kim, Tom Hoge
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Cameron Davis is in an interesting place on the leaderboard, given what the stats say. Generally, the guy ranked third on the week in strokes gained tee to green (+2.18) would find himself a little higher on the leaderboard than T9; unfortunately, that is a testament to how detrimental the putter has been.
Granted, this isn't something we don't already know about the lanky Austrailian. It is a trouble that's plagued him for the last two seasons. The only frustrating part is that this has been one particular event where he's had success on the greens in two previous starts. So, if things turn around for him on Sunday, you'll be glad he's on your lineup.
Other Options:
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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