RADIO
The PGA Tour is concluding its final event in Texas for the 2024 season tomorrow at the newly renovated yet timely classic Colonial Country Club. The excitement and flash we saw a week ago at Valhalla have been much more subdued here at a less-getable venue and much windier conditions. The lead sits alone with 27-year-old Davis Riley at -14 with the Lonestar King himself, Scottie Scheffler lurking behind at -10
Aside from a stray shower or two, things have been a little dryer here than many players experienced last week, or at least that's how the new green surfaces have played. Approach play has been the absolute king it was predicted to be as Riley currently leads the field in strokes gained on approach (+2.57) through the first three rounds. Putting has also been a predictably big factor as three of the top five in strokes gained putting are sitting tied for third or better heading into the final round.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. The usual strategy is finding guys who played well the previous day(s), particularly the players who have shown strong ability with their irons. However, it's also important to make roster decisions that give you ownership leverage over other players in your contest. This is usually done by taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions & Tee Times
Wind will be a major factor again as it has been all week, but it should taper off some as the leaders come down the closing few holes. There isn't much to gain in roster construction by going early or late other than picking a guy to make a late charge. But on a historically tough track like Colonial, there isn't anyone on the first page of the leaderboard that makes sense other than the number one player in the world.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys that have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday, and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point. Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, and finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Tony Finau had a solid first round that saw him finish the day just one shot back of then-leader, Charlie Hoffman. Things looked mighty fine after gaining over two shots on the greens, though his performance on Friday losing -1.84 strokes putting made it hard for him to stay with the leaders. Saturday's round was much more consistent from a stats perspective even if he didn't exactly run anyone down. Being seven shots back, Finau is in a powerful do-or-die position with nothing to lose.
Other options: It's a must to include Scottie Scheffler everywhere in 2024 if you can get up to his price tag.
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Si Woo Kim put on a ball-striking clinic during Thursday's opening round, gaining nearly four shots with his irons. He's calmed down since but is still 16th in strokes gained tee to green (+1.70) through the first three rounds. The South Korean has been on a horrible putting run as of late, however, he ranks 27th in final-round scoring average (68.83) and his strokes gained putting numbers have slowly improved after each of the first three rounds.
Other Options: Brian Harman
Si Woo Kim goes right at it 🎯 pic.twitter.com/T2m7zd7mfy
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 13, 2024
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Billy Horschel has performed stellar in every facet of his game this week, but the problem is all of it has come on different days and has been a complete 180 from what he showed the previous day. His back-and-forth rounds on Thursday and Friday to stay at even par leveled out some on Saturday to get him to -3 to start the final round. The third-ranked player in round four scoring average (66.75) will have to play in the windiest conditions of the day, but his track record this year says it shouldn't be enough to keep him from posting a respectable score on Sunday.
Other Options: Sungjae Im, Keegan Bradley (If the driver stays hot)
$7,000+
Favorite Play: If you want to know how good Davis Thompson hit the ball on Saturday, look no further than his mediocre +0.08 strokes gained putting while managing to tie for the second-best round of the day. He gained nearly three-and-a-half strokes from tee to green in the third round, and for a guy that is as streaky a putter as they come, I'm going to lean into his 68.56 round four scoring average to post another solid score to end the week.
Other Options: Lucas Glover, Kevin Tway, Davis Riley
Saucy.
A 𝙧𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙘𝙪𝙡𝙤𝙪𝙨 flop hole-out from Davis Thompson @WWTChampionship. pic.twitter.com/ayunGUjiH2
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 4, 2023
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Alejandro Tosti is starting to make a habit of hanging around in big golf tournaments. And while he likely doesn't have enough in the tank to catch Riley or even Scottie if he shoots anything that starts with a six, his steadily increasing strokes gained on approach (5.31 through first three rounds) is something to hang your hat on when putting him in a lineup. The putter needs to be more solid than we saw on Thursday's and Saturday's rounds to have a massive day, but there is enough to like here to get you closer to the guys at the top of the Showdown board.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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