RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - BMW Championship

Yearly Earnings - $5,516,475

Yearly Cuts Made - 18/22

Spencer Aguiar - Tiger Woods

Alternate - Jon Rahm

My chances for victory are looking slim after Jason Day decided to go on an early vacation during last week's Northern Trust, and I am running out of time (and players) in my quest to mount a comeback. From a game theory perspective, I assume I have three more premier shots at a massive payday in Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau. That doesn't mean I can't find additional purses elsewhere, but the main benefit for me is that I know I will get a free crack at the trio since Joe and Josh have used them earlier in the season. All of that is fine and dandy, but I am going to have to be extremely selective if I want to maximize my current paltry implied win percentage in this contest, which can be labeled somewhere between "longshot" and "forget about it."

I think there are a few routes I could take this weekend that would make logical sense. Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland both have upside to yield a solid payday at the BMW Championship, or I could decide to go for the gusto right now and deploy Jon Rahm at a venue that should suit his game. All three of those options were firmly in play as directions I considered taking, but I have decided to go rogue and stalk my pray with the 'Big Cat' himself.

The thing about selecting Woods here is that we don't have many more opportunities to take the 82-time PGA Tour winner this season. Outside of the Masters, there is no guarantee of when we will see him in action again, and it could be difficult to get the 44-year-old in a situation where he isn't entering the event off of a multi-week absence. Woods' game has been a hot putter away from finding success the past two starts, and it shouldn't hurt matters that he needs a minimum of a top-six showing to have any chance at East Lake. I'd imagine Tiger wants to keep his season alive and build some momentum leading up to the final two majors of the year, and I believe we get whatever his best effort is in Illinois. This selection isn't for the faint of heart, but I need to take a leap of faith if I want to get myself back into the mix.

Yearly Earnings - $4,097,201

Yearly Cuts Made - 16/22

Josh Bennett - Collin Morikawa

Alternate - Daniel Berger

I have a lot of ground to make up in a short period of time, but I have some top dogs left still that hopefully can cut into this big deficit. This week ball-striking will be at a premium, especially off the tee, and there really hasn’t been a much better ball-striker this year than Morikawa. There is no need to be long on this golf course, the ball just has to be put in the correct places for a good look at the green. Morikawa is good enough off the tee to do that, and when you get the irons in his hand it’s lights out. The greens should have a little more California feel to them this week which he should be a little more comfortable on. Although I don’t usually dive too deeply into putting on different grass types, we know that Collin struggles putting so any tiny advantage on the greens for him just brings his potential that much higher. He also racks up birdies in bunches, so one bad day in the first two rounds won’t hurt him in a no-cut and he can easily get back into things with three really good rounds. Looking for him to get at least into the top 5 so I can fire off another big gun for the Tour Championship and get myself back in this thing.

Yearly Earnings - $3,455,243

Yearly Cuts Made - 18/22

Running Totals