RADIO
The PGA RotoBaller staff digs into their One and Done selections for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Here are some under-the-radar plays and picks for this week's event.
Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for the fourth season.
In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters, Owen Vrabel, Matt Miller and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!
For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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One and Done Selections - Arnold Palmer Invitational
Joe Nicely - Scottie Scheffler
Alternate - Rory McIlroy
Keith Mitchell managed a T9 for me last week at the Honda, but perhaps more importantly for the purposes of this OAD contest, I somehow dodged a Daniel Berger victory from Spencer.
This week’s API is always a great event and is so stacked that I won’t even dive into all the viable directions you could go for OAD. Perhaps the most obvious selection is Rory McIlroy, a player that has historically feasted on this Bay Hill layout. While Rory is a great pick this week, I imagine that he’ll also be the most popular OAD selection by a fairly wide margin. While I don’t want to get too cute here, I will make a small pivot to Scottie Scheffler, a player with a skill set that I think is a great fit for this week’s tough and lengthy layout.
During his short time on Tour, Scheffler has already proven himself to be "the total package" due to his elite combination of length and short-game touch. That complete skill set has repeatedly served him well in golf’s toughest tests - including major championship settings and this Bay Hill layout where he posted a T15 in his lone appearance in 2020 - and is exemplified by the fact that he leads this week’s elite field in SG: Total over his last 12 rounds. With a win already under his belt this year, the floodgates could be opening for the young Texan.
Yearly Earnings - $2,341,650
Yearly Cuts Made - 5/7
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Spencer Aguiar - Viktor Hovland
Alternate - Rory McIlroy
I can't promise this last-minute change is not tilt from last week's debacle that was Daniel Berger, but I've decided to go against my early lean of Rory McIlroy and pivot to Viktor Hovland - a golfer that enters the contest with three worldwide victories over his last seven starts.
Hovland's course history of three showings outside the top-40 at Bay Hill might not be exactly what it seems, as the Norweigan has fallen apart in back-to-back years after entering the weekend within striking distance. Those kinds of outlier finishes will happen at a course that is littered with water, and he ranks first in par-five scoring, second in total driving and first in weighted proximity over 150 yards.
Yearly Earnings - $2,691,578
Yearly Cuts Made - 7/7
Matt Miller - Rory McIlroy
Alternate -
Yearly Earnings - $726,050
Yearly Cuts Made - 5/7
Owen Vrabel - Will Zalatoris
Alternate - Adam Scott
Yearly Earnings - $690,364
Yearly Cuts Made - 6/7
Josh Bennett - Rory McIlroy
Alternate - Scottie Scheffler
I would be shocked if I were the only one to make this pick, but I’m going to make it anyway. Full disclosure, I’d really like to roll out Will Zalatoris this week, but I’m hoping to run him out in a field that isn’t quite as strong as this one since he will be playing a lot this year. I’m sticking with a theme that I’ve been running with the past few weeks that’s had some mixed results, but I think probably works in the long run. I’m staying away from deep diving stats and news and noise as much as I can and just looking at overall form and history. This obviously leads me (and probably you) directly to Rory this week. A win and no worse than 10th since 2016 here, and coming in off a 10th at the Genesis and 2 very solid starts on the DP Tour, it is hard to pass Rory up this week. If there’s ever a concern in this event it’s that top guys are looking forward to next week, but I don’t get that feeling from Rory, I think he’s focused on winning as much and as often as possible. Hopefully, that happens again this week!
Yearly Earnings - $630,286
Yearly Cuts Made - 5/7
Andrew Putters - Rory McIlroy
Alternate - Scottie Scheffler
Rory grades out a little lower than I expected this week, coming in at 16th overall in the current model for The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. His SG Approach numbers are what is bringing his ranking down, but his proximity from 200+ yards is near the top of the field ranking. I feel this stat carries a lot of weight in this particular tournament. The 2018 former champion is also a horse for the course. In his last 5 outings here he has placed: T10, T5, T6, 1, T4, dating back to 2017. So, he’s pretty much a beast on this track.
Yearly Earnings - $1,604,400
Yearly Cuts Made - 4/7
Running Totals
Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!
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