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Michael Fulmer and Sean Manaea were among two of the first prospects to be called up this year, and the results so far have been less than impressive. Their ERAs sit above six, and holes have been identified.
Every young pitcher will experience adjustment periods, and Fulmer and Manaea may be worth holding on to. It’s important to understand why each pitcher is struggling, and how exactly they can take that next step into developing into a reliable and valuable fantasy asset.
Editors Note: Check out all of RotoBaller's MLB prospects analysis here. You can also head over to the prospect rankings dashboard. Our Rankings Assistant is a handy free tool where you can find team-specific prospect breakdowns, tiered positional rankings, 500+ player outlooks, dynasty ranks and more - all in one easy place.
First Two Career Starts
Fulmer and Manaea have similar stats following their 2 first starts in the Bigs. The results don’t look pretty to those box score watchers, and it has certainly scared away re-draft owners (ownership for both have dipped below 20% again).
Fulmer
IP (2 starts): 10
Earned Runs: 7
Hits Allowed: 17
Manaea
IP (2 starts): 10
Earned Runs: 8
Hits Allowed: 11
Neither player has lasted more than 5 IP, but the positive here is that both prospects are getting strikeouts. This strikeout potential is what makes both pitchers worth taking a risk on, and they both throw multiple plus pitches that can one day lead to above-average K contributions.
Fulmer K%: 20.8%
Manaea K%: 19.6%
Prospect Profile
Both pitchers have surprisingly similar profiles. Both are top prospects in their organizations, both have made a rapid rise into the big leagues, and each have under 20 innings of experience above AA ball. They throw hard and possess a slider that serves as an above-average secondary pitch.
Throwing from the right side, Michael Fulmer throws a powerful fastball that can reach 97 mph. His quick slider has shown to be a potentially deadly weapon against righties, and has sharp movement away when thrown correctly. He was named the 2015 AA Pitcher of the Year, further distancing himself from that RP label that he once held.
Throwing from the left side, Sean Manaea also throws a powerful fastball that can reach 97 mph. His slider is a bit more deceptive than powerful, as it only averages 77 mph. Before an injury, Manaea was in serious consideration for the #1 overall pick in the 2013 draft and his talent is legitimate. Scouts have been drooling over his potential since high school, but staying healthy has been his biggest problem.
What’s Missing? What Should I Watch For?
Each pitcher’s slider is the only pitch that has produced positive value, according to Fangraphs. Quite simply, it’s the effective change up that is missing. Both pitchers clearly do not trust their 3rd pitch, and have made the decision to just stop throwing them.
By throwing so many fastballs and sliders, hitters are learning to sit back and just wait on their pitch. A result of this is that Fulmer and Manaea are less effective after the first time through the order, which could make going deep into games an issue.
Let’s look at contact % on pitches inside the zone so far:
Fulmer’s Z-Contact%: 92.9%
Manaea Z-Contact%: 98%
The fastball and slider combo was exceptional in the minors, but major league hitters aren’t having a problem picking up the horizontal movement. A respectable change up would go a long ways in increasing the effectiveness of all their pitches by producing vertical movement, and this missing piece could be the reason why hitters are making such good contact.
MLB hitters have forced the two SP to adjust, and now it’s their turn to make a change.
Next Start - Rest of Season Outlook
Fulmer: Tuesday @ WAS
Manaea: Tuesday @ BOS
Going forward, keep an eye on the development (and usage) of the changeup, as well as how many innings they can last in starts. Both will look to grab their first career QS in their next start.
While Fulmer and Manaea may currently be too risky for shallow leagues, their current high ERA totals should not scare away those in deep leagues and dynasty formats. With a few adjustments, these two similar SP have a chance to exceed their current ceilings of #3 or #4 starters.
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