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Reviewing Harris Yudin's 10 Bold Predictions for 2017

RotoBaller's Harris Yudin reviews his bold predictions for the 2017 fantasy baseball season.

So, it makes sense that the worst fantasy season of my life coincides with my worst bold predictions. I failed to finish in the top five in any league for the first time, which I guess makes sense considering how heavily I bought into Joc Pederson and Yu Darvish— as you’ll soon find out.

I actually built some offensive juggernauts this year (Votto, Machado, Springer, Betts, Braun, Bellinger, Longoria, Andrus in a 12-teamer), but my pitching fell apart across the board. Injuries of all sorts — elbows, shoulders, obliques, pectoral muscles — plagued my rotations, leaving me to fend through the wasteland that is the waiver wire to find innings eaters throughout my leagues.

I spent months talking up Luis Severino in the chatrooms as a post-hype sleeper, but did I mention him in my article OR draft him in any of my leagues? Of course not! My proudest accomplishment this year was owning Cody Bellinger in all four leagues, actually drafting him in the three of them. Why didn’t I include him in this article?? Ugh, let’s see how I did.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Reviewing Harris Yudin's 10 Bold Predictions for 2017

1. Jarrod Dyson leads MLB in stolen bases

This prediction was based on the idea that Dyson would finally take on an everyday role, and that was essentially the case for most of the season. He finished with a career-high 390 plate appearances despite missing most of the final six weeks with a groin injury. Mitch Haniger’s breakout forced Dyson out of the top of the lineup for a good chunk of the year, but the 33-year-old speedster still managed 28 steals and a .324 on-base percentage— 40 SB when prorated to a full, 162-game season. Dyson didn’t stay healthy or hit .280, but it wasn’t a lost season for the center fielder.

Grade: C+

2. Yu Darvish finishes as SP1 in the American League

Another year, another whiff in (bold) predicting the league’s top starting pitchers. Surprisingly, health wasn’t what kept Darvish away from the top of the leaderboards, as he reached the 30-start mark for the first time since 2013. However, he did post career-worst marks in FIP, K/9, HR/FB and Hard%. His numbers improved upon joining the Dodgers in the second half, but Darvish came nowhere close to 20 wins or a sub-3.00 ERA.

Grade: D

3. Joc Pederson hits 30 homers, finishes as a top-20 outfielder

This one’s so brutal— it was certainly a season to forget for Pederson. His swinging strike rate (9.5 percent) and strikeout rate (21.1 percent) both actually improved significantly, but he made less hard contact and pounded the ball into the ground more frequently. Pederson’s OPS dropped over 100 points from 2016, and the 25-year-old was actually demoted to Triple-A for a good chunk of the season. An underwhelming 15.5 percent home run per fly ball rate limited him to 11 long balls, which is, uhhhh, not 30.

Grade: F

4. Carlos Correa OR Corey Seager finishes as the No. 2 overall player

Much like Correa did in his sophomore season, Seager took something of a step back in 2017, striking out more frequently, hitting fewer homers and lowering his OPS by 23 points. His batted ball profile more or less remained the same from 2016, so there’s really no reason for concern. He simply didn’t have as much success as we all expected.

Correa, on the other hand, was enjoying a massive breakout season before missing about six weeks with a thumb injury. He set career highs in homers (24) and runs (82) despite seeing just 481 plate appearances, slashing .315/.391/.550 in the process. The now-23-year-old essentially stopped running this year, but a full season could have easily yielded 30 homers, 100 runs and 100 RBI. I’m still confident both players will compete for a spot in the top 10 next season.

Grade: C+

5. Andrew McCutchen hits over .300

Okay, so McCutchen certainly bounced back from his mysteriously poor 2016 campaign. This year, he smacked 28 homers — his seventh straight season with at least 20 — while managing a .279/.363/.486 slash line. While he didn’t hit .300 or quite revert back to his former self, the newly-turned 31-year-old showed he’s not finished. Cutch fell off a bit in the second half after a strong start, but he remained a reliable fantasy option throughout the year.

Grade: B-

6. Carlos Rodon strikes out more batters than Chris Sale

Rodon didn’t make his season debut until late June, so the chances of this happening were nonexistent even before taking either of their success into account. Let’s pretend for a second, though, that he was healthy for the entire season. The 24-year-old tossed 69.1 innings across 12 starts, racking up 76 strikeouts in the process. If Rodon took the mound as often as Chris Sale did (32 starts) at his current pace, he would’ve finished with roughly 203 punchouts over 184.2 frames. Chris Sale, on the other hand, spun 214.1 innings, totaling 308 strikeouts and a 2.90 ERA. He shattered his career high K/9 (12.93, previously 11.82) en route to becoming the first 300-strikeout pitcher in the American League since 1999, when Pedro Martinez racked up 313. Rodon fell more than 10 percentage points behind Sale in strikeout rate, and failed to play half a season.

Grade: F—

7. Mike Moustakas finishes as a top-10 third baseman

This one’s a bit tricky, because Moustakas sits 14th among all players eligible at third base, but four of those guys played most of the season away from the hot corner. After beginning the 2016 season on a 42-HR pace before going down with a knee injury, Moose belted 38 dingers with 75 runs and 85 RBI across just about a full season, slashing .272/.314/.521 in the process. The lack of walks certainly hurts his value a bit, but he was one of the more productive power hitters in baseball all season long. I predicted a stat line of 30 homers, 80 runs, 90 RBI and a .280 average, so this worked out pretty well.

Grade: A-

8. Tommy Joseph finishes as a top-10 first baseman

Oh, I totally meant Rhys Hoskins here, I swear! (Not that Hoskins finished as a top-10 first baseman, but he had quite a bit more success than Joseph). Joseph slashed. 240/.289/.432 with 22 long balls, taking a step back pretty much across the board. His OPS dropped 92 points while his strikeout rate shot up, and he hit fewer homers per fly ball in a season that saw his ground ball rate skyrocket. The 26-year-old former backstop spurned many owners who considered him a strong sleeper pick, and his mixed-league value for 2018 will likely be nonexistent.

Grade: F

9. Jurickson Profar manages 15/15 season

Profar was given somewhat of another chance in April, but responded with a .424 OPS across 15 games played. The former top prospect came back up for a couple of brief stints in June and July, but again failed to lock down a role. He finished the season with zero home runs and one stolen base, so I’d say it’s safe to give this prediction a failing grade. Profar will turn 25 before the 2018 season, and may have squandered his final opportunity to make something of his big league career.

Grade: F

10. Dylan Bundy finishes as top-40 starter

Check this out. I originally read this one and laughed to myself. But then, I checked… Yahoo! has Bundy ranked as the 46th SP-eligible player, but exactly six of those guys spent most of the season in the bullpen. Which means… Dylan Bundy finished 40th!!!!

NFBC had his ADP at SP71, so cracking the top 40 is pretty solid. The 24-year-old logged a career-high 169.2 innings, managing an underwhelming-but-respectable 4.24 ERA with 152 strikeouts. His swinging strike rate jumped up to 11.4 percent, and his home run per fly ball rate dropped down to 11.5 percent. Bundy didn’t break out, but he was just reliable enough to make me feel smart.

Grade: A-




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

CFB

Virginia's Chandler Morris Trending Toward Facing Duke on Saturday
Shane Pinto

Lands Four-Year Extension
Thomas Chabot

to Sit Out Two Weeks
William Karlsson

Out Week-to-Week
Alex Newhook

Injured in Big Loss
Jeff Skinner

Hurt Early on Thursday
John Gibson

Exits With Upper-Body Injury Thursday
Kaapo Kakko

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Thursday
Stefon Diggs

Delivers Triple-Digit Yardage in Win
TreVeyon Henderson

Scores Hat Trick in Career-Best Outing
Brenton Strange

Limited Again on Thursday
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Says There's a "50-50" Chance he Returns to Mets
Shohei Ohtani

Wins his Fourth MVP Award
KJ Simpson

Probable to Play Friday
Tory Horton

Downgraded to Non-Participant on Thursday
Aaron Judge

Wins AL MVP Award Again
Ausar Thompson

Unavailable Friday
Isaiah Stewart

in Danger of Missing Fourth Straight Game
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Won't Play Friday
P.J. Washington

Questionable Friday Against Clippers
Calvin Ridley

Limited in Practice on Thursday
Zion Williamson

to Remain Sidelined Friday
Malik Monk

Could Miss Another Game Friday
Dereck Lively II

Questionable Friday Versus Clippers
Brian Thomas Jr.

Limited Again on Thursday
Zach LaVine

Available for NBA Cup Action Friday
Jonathan Kuminga

Listed as Questionable for Friday
Domantas Sabonis

Considered Questionable for Friday
LaMelo Ball

Tagged as Probable for Friday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Expected to Return Friday
Jalen Duren

Listed Questionable For Friday Night, May Miss Second Straight Game
Bam Adebayo

to Remain Out Friday
Cade Cunningham

Listed As Questionable For Friday Night Against Philadelphia
Justin Fields

Playing for his Job on Thursday Night?
Anthony Davis

Listed as Questionable for Friday
LeBron James

Practices Thursday Without Lingering Pain
Joel Embiid

Won't Play on Friday
VJ Edgecombe

Questionable For Friday Night With Back Spasms
Day'Ron Sharpe

Listed as Probable for Friday Against Magic
Dylan Samberg

Makes Season Debut Thursday
Justin Fields

Expected to Start on Thursday Night Against Patriots
Samuel Girard

Available Thursday
Valeri Nichushkin

Considered Week-to-Week
Boone Jenner

Out Long-Term With Upper-Body Injury
Ricky Pearsall

Will Play in Week 11
Mikael Granlund

Returns to Action Thursday
Geno Smith

Not on the Week 11 Injury Report
Anthony Stolarz

Out Day-to-Day
Auston Matthews

Likely to Miss One Week
Brock Purdy

to Start in Week 11 Against Cardinals
Raisel Iglesias

Dodgers Interested in Signing Raisel Iglesias
Pete Alonso

Orioles Could be in the Mix to Sign Pete Alonso
J.K. Dobbins

Misses Second Straight Practice on Thursday
Xavier Worthy

Added to Thursday's Injury Report With Ankle Injury
Garrett Wilson

Jets Place Garrett Wilson on Injured Reserve Due to Knee Injury
C.J. Stroud

Officially Ruled Out for Sunday
Isiah Pacheco

Absent From Practice, Questionable for Sunday
Dalton Kincaid

Yet to Practice Ahead of Week 11 Matchup
Sam LaPorta

Misses Thursday Practice, Questionable for Week 11?
Lamar Jackson

Returns to Practice Thursday
Khalil Shakir

Dealing With Multiple Injuries
C.J. Stroud

Missing From Practice Again on Thursday
Matt Savoie

Collects Two Assists Wednesday
Artemi Panarin

Delivers Four Assists in Wednesday's Victory
Simon Nemec

Becomes Hat-Trick Hero Wednesday
Zack MacEwen

Exits Early Wednesday
Cody Glass

Exits With Injury Wednesday
Brandon Hagel

Injured in Wednesday's Loss
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Could Return in Second Half in 2026
Kodai Senga

Attracting Trade Interest, Will the Mets Move him?
Yordan Alvarez

Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
Byron Buxton

Could Waive his No-Trade Clause
Paul Skenes

the Unanimous NL Cy Young Winner
Tarik Skubal

Wins AL Cy Young for Second Straight Year
Zach Hyman

Nearing Season Debut
CFB

Still No Update on Jermod McCoy's Return Timeline
Sami Valimaki

Riding Momentum Into Bermuda
Matthieu Pavon

Struggling Through a Rough Season
Taylor Montgomery

Hopes to Get Back on Track at Port Royal
Ben Martin

a Risky Play at Bermuda Championship
Mark Hubbard

Primed for a Bounce-Back Week in Bermuda
Lee Hodges

Searching for a Spark in Bermuda
Stephen Vogt

Wins Back-to-Back AL Manager of the Year Honors
Milwaukee Brewers

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager of the Year Again
Patrick Fishburn

Looking to Bounce Back in Bermuda
Eric Cole

Carrying Momentum into Bermuda
Tommy Edman

to Have Ankle Surgery Next Week
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Unlikely to Trade Ketel Marte
Roman Anthony

to Have a Normal Offseason
Jarren Duran

Red Sox Think Jarren Duran Needs a Fresh Start
MacKenzie Gore

Nationals Expected to Trade MacKenzie Gore?
Sahith Theegala

Finishes Tied for 27th at Bank of Utah Championship
Sam Stevens

Finishes Tied for 36th at Baycurrent Classic
Patrick Rodgers

Finishes Tied For Sixth at World Wide Technology Championship
Luke List

Finishes 75th at World Wide Technology Championship
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied for 63rd at World Wide Technology Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied for 14th at World Wide Technology Championship
Luke Clanton

Finishes Tied for 46th at World Wide Technology Championship
Blades Brown

Finishes Tied for 18th at Korn Ferry Tour Championship
Tarik Skubal

Tigers Unlikely to Trade Tarik Skubal
Framber Valdez

Cubs Could Land Framber Valdez in Free Agency
Sandy Alcantara

Marlins Ready to Trade Sandy Alcantara
CFB

Nic Anderson Could Return for LSU this Season
Randy Brown

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Gabriel Bonfim

Extends His Win Streak
Joseph Morales

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Matt Schnell

Suffers First-Round Submission Loss
Muslim Salikhov

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Uros Medic

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Ismael Bonfim

Loses Back-to-Back Fights
Chris Padilla

Remains Unbeaten In The UFC
Marco Tulio

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christian Leroy Duncan

Scores Second-Round Knockout Victory

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