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This week, we're at Narashino Country Club for the 2023 ZOZO Championship! As the Tour heads into the first of three events in its "International Swing" this fall, there's no better spot to kick it off than on one of Japan's most iconic courses. This golf-crazy country is recognized worldwide for its world-class course conditions and amenities, and this sterling reputation has routinely brought some of the best fields of the fall swing across the Pacific. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Wednesday, October 18.
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Single Stat PGA Totals - DFS Prop Picks
Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Adam Scott MORE than Nate Lashley - Birdies or Better Matchup
The days of Adam Scott as one of the best ball-strikers on the planet might well be gone, but perhaps at no other point in his career has the 43-year-old Australian been this well-rounded across the board. Over his last 36 rounds on the PGA Tour, Scott ranks inside the top 30 in this field in each of the four strokes gained categories, and in his last start out at the European Tour's Flagship event (BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth), Scott ranked third in the field from tee-to-green against one of the strongest fields the event's ever seen.
His 6.7 strokes gained on Approach was the best iron performance we've seen out of the Aussie since the 2022 Memorial Tournament, and Adam's newfound confidence on the greens has made him exceedingly more dangerous when the ball-striking is on song. Scott ranks 1st in this field in BoB % since the start of May and unlike many of the PGA Tour regulars making the trip to Japan, Scott will have already recovered from the pains of travel and an 8+ hour time difference - playing two rounds in the Japan Open just last week. Week-to-week, the game seems to be in as good of a spot as we've seen in years from the former World No. 1. With five top 10s to his name in his last 12 starts worldwide, there's no reason he can't make his way back into contention in a shortened field this week.
This recent flurry from Scott makes it all the more confusing as to why PrizePicks has matched him up against Nate Lashley on Wednesday night. The former Arizona Wildcat has had an inauspicious 2023 - recording just one top-20 finish over his last five months on Tour. Lashley also falls short in a variety of key metrics for me this week: Ranking outside the top 50 in Total Driving, Driving Accuracy, Birdie Chances Created, and Birdie or Better Percentage.
This lackluster ball-striking is not a recipe for success around Narashino's tight corridors and small greens, and unlike Scott, Lashley does not have the same acclimation around the world. He's played back-to-back weeks in Jackson, Mississippi, and Las Vegas, Nevada, and following an uninspiring weekend at the Shriners, he gets a quick turnaround across eight time zones to Chiba, Japan. I have my concerns about a guy who has never made this trip before - particularly early in a tournament before his body has had a chance to adapt to this sudden change. Lashley makes a worthwhile fade until he can prove he has his feet underneath him this week, while Scott presents one of the smoothest transitions in this field. I like the Aussie to start hot tonight.
Beau Hossler LESS than 69.5 Strokes
Thinking back through my time as a golf analyst, I can't ever remember a time I was this bullish on Beau Hossler. His historical profile has been good enough to pop up on the occasional leaderboard, but he was never a prolific enough ball striker to sustain his challenge over the course of the week. As we've transitioned into the late summer/early fall, however, it would seem as if the 28-year-old Longhorn has taken a sizable step forward in his progression.
Hossler has gained strokes off the tee in 12 of his last 14 starts (ranking as the 15th best driver in this field in that time), and since the start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs in August, he's managed to gain strokes on Approach in three of his last four (recording the 5th and 7th best approach weeks of his career in that span). If the irons are truly improving for Beau, he's always possessed one of the best short games on Tour. Over the last three seasons, Hossler ranks as the 5th best bentgrass putter in this field. And over his last 50 rounds, he ranks 10th in Scrambling Percentage and 12th in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens.
Hossler's finished inside the top 30 in six of his last seven starts on Tour and is coming off of his best PGA result (7th at Shriners) since he finished 4th at the Valero Texas Open in April of 2022. He gained strokes in all four categories last week in Vegas and despite coming into last year's ZOZO in much worse overall form, he managed to fire three rounds in the 60s in a 16th-place finish. For the first time in my career as a golf writer, I'm willing to put my money on Beau Hossler to continue this momentum. I don't mind him as an outright ~45-1, but I love him to start hot in Round 1 with an under-par afternoon.
Other Recommendations
- Sahith Theegala MORE than Will Gordon - Birdies or Better Matchup
- Cameron Davis LESS than 4.0 Birdies or Better
- Rickie Fowler MORE than 68.5 Strokes
Overall recommendation for this play: Power Play
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