March
18,
2025
Sam
Stevens
shot
a
two-over
74
on
Thursday
at
The
PLAYERS
and
was
unable
to
make
up
ground
on
Friday,
ultimately
missing
the
cut
by
two
strokes.
This
marks
his
second
missed
cut
in
his
last
three
starts,
and
this
week
read more...
March
18,
2025
To
say
that
Jordan
Spieth
had
an
adventurous
week
at
The
PLAYERS
is
an
understatement.
He
finished
the
tournament
in
59th
place
after
carding
two
eagles,
12
birdies,
14
bogeys,
and
three
doubles
while
still
impressively
gaining
5.322
strokes
around
the
read more...
March 18, 2025
In his seven starts this season, Alex Smalley has recorded six top-25 finishes, including a T14 at The PLAYERS last week. He looks to continue this momentum at the Valspar Championship, an event he has played in three times -- with a best finish of T27 in 2023 to go along with two missed cuts. Smalley is in the best form of his PGA career, making past results at this event easy to overlook. To succeed at Copperhead, players need to be precise from tee to green and sharp with their short game. Smalley ranks fifth in strokes gained from tee to green (1.473 per round), 64th on approach (0.209), second around the green (0.728), and 39th in putting (0.350). He also excels in other key areas, ranking seventh in bogey avoidance and seventh in scrambling. Given his current form, he is well worth his $9,000 price tag on DraftKings this week.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 18, 2025
Prior to missing the cut at The PLAYERS, Adam Scott had recorded four straight top-40 finishes to begin the season. Considering the difficulty of TPC Sawgrass, it's easy to move past that result and focus on the Valspar Championship, where he has posted four top-40 finishes and three missed cuts in seven appearances at Copperhead. To get back on track, Scott will need to be precise from tee to green and tidy with his short game. He ranks 54th in strokes gained from tee to green (0.387 per round) but is 85th around the green (0.031 per round) and 129th in putting (minus-0.235 per round). He is also ranked just 159th in driving accuracy and is in the 30th percentile for proximity from 150-200 yards over the past 12 months, a range that accounted for 37% of all approach shots here last year. At his price tag of $8,300 on DraftKings, fantasy managers may want to look elsewhere given his boom-or-bust potential.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 18, 2025
After recording a T20 finish at The PLAYERS, Shane Lowry has now posted four top-20 finishes in his last five events. He looks to continue this strong form into the Valspar Championship, an event he has competed in twice, with results of T49 in 2018 and T12 in 2022. To succeed at Copperhead, players will need to be precise from tee to green and sharp with their short game. Lowry ranks seventh on tour in strokes gained from tee to green (1.294 per round), seventh on approach (0.925), 26th around the green (0.336), and 73rd in putting (0.147). He is also strong in other key areas, including 63rd in driving accuracy, 49th in bogey avoidance, and 27th in scrambling. Additionally, he ranks in the 92nd percentile for proximity from 150-200 yards over the past 12 months, a range that accounted for 37% of all approach shots here last year. Lowry is well worth his price tag of $9,400 on DraftKings.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 18, 2025
Stephan Jaeger finished The PLAYERS with a final-round 75, dropping him to a T20 finish for the week. This marks his third top-20 finish of the season and his second in his last three starts. He looks to carry this momentum into the Valspar Championship, an event where he has posted mixed results in his four previous visits -- a T27, T49, and two missed cuts. Jaeger has lost strokes putting in every start at Copperhead, but he has been tidy on the greens in 2025, gaining 0.544 strokes per round with the flat stick -- ranking 20th on tour. He is also 76th in strokes gained from tee to green (0.210 per round), 56th on approach (0.271 per round), and 46th around the green (0.215 per round). Additionally, he ranks in the 59th percentile for proximity from 150-200 yards over the past 12 months, a range that accounted for 37% of all approach shots here last year. At $7,900 on DraftKings, Jaeger is worth considering for fantasy managers.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 18, 2025
Since winning the WM Phoenix Open, Thomas Detry has posted results of 53rd place and two consecutive missed cuts. He now looks to rebound at the Valspar Championship, an event he has participated in only once, finishing T17 in 2024. To succeed at Copperhead, players will need to be precise from tee to green and sharp with their short game. Detry ranks 93rd in strokes gained from tee to green (0.065 per round), 136th on approach (minus-0.293 per round), and 115th around the green (minus-0.073 per round). Where he can make up strokes is on the green, where he ranks 29th in putting, gaining 0.479 per round. He is also ranked in the 58th percentile for proximity from 150-200 yards over the past 12 months, a range that accounted for 37% of all approach shots here last year. Given his recent form, fantasy managers may want to lean away from Detry at his $7,700 price tag on DraftKings.
--Dakota Legg - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 18, 2025
It was a weird week for Justin Thomas at TPC Sawgrass, as the course record-tying 62 shot on Friday was coupled with three rather uninspiring rounds. Looking back, his great second day was needed just to make the weekend after an opening round, 78 had things looking bleak for the former Players Champion. That speaks to the talent that the 31-year-old still has, but the frustrating reality of the state of his golf game for the last couple of years. This week's event at Innisbrook has been a somewhat frequent stop for J.T. through the years. In seven career starts, he's racked up one top 5, two top 10s, and two top 20s; mostly due to great ball striking. Over his last 16 rounds on the Copperhead Course, the former Alabama golfer has averaged +1.258 strokes gained on approach. This week could be a much-needed confidence booster depending on what player shows up to the first tee on Thursday. Regardless, Thomas is worth whatever the risk, even at $11,900 on FanDuel.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March
18,
2025
After
a
run
of
great
form
over
the
last
several
events,
it
was
surprising
to
see
Michael
Kim
miss
the
cut
at
The
Players
this
past
week.
The
31-year-old
got
off
to
a
rough
start
on
Thursday,
carding
a
three-over-par,
75.
read more...
March 18, 2025
Tom Kim is slowly evolving into a player who doesn't surprise anyone when he's contending for tournaments, even though his rate of doing so is still very low. It's easier to gain that acclaim when you hit the ball as well as the South Korean does, but his woes with the flat stick have been hard to overcome. For his eighth-place ranking in strokes gained on approach (+0.873), his 156th ranking in strokes gained putting (-0.534) and 141st rank (-0.221) in strokes gained around the green nearly cancels it out. It's also worth noting that the 22-year-old has not been quite as proficient with the long irons, which could be why Pebble Beach is his only quality finish this season. While it's more likely someone finds magic with the putter and wedges than his ball striking on a given week, the $10,700 price tag is a steep number to take the risk on someone this volatile.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 18, 2025
It was a rough go at TPC Sawgrass this past week for Rasmus Hojgaard, as he turned in a second-round 80 to miss the cut by a large margin. It's easy to do at a tricky place like the Stadium Course for the first time, but his game has been slipping since before that. The 24-year-old has lost 10.92 strokes on approach over his last three starts and has had events where both his driver and putter haven't cooperated. It's quite a dilemma for a player with so much raw talent, but until solid finishes become more commonplace, he'll be hard to trust as more than a dart throw.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
March 18, 2025
After back-to-back T4 finishes, Ben Griffin has struggled to keep the momentum going, finishing T45 at the API and missing the cut at The Players. Ball striking is the culprit to his struggles, as the 28-year-old has averaged -0.65 in strokes gained on approach and -0.46 in strokes gained off the tee over his last two starts. While those aren't the largest deficits to reverse, they're certainly concerning coming to a venue that places such a premium on shot placement. In two career starts, the short game and putting have been his saving grace, and it looks to call for that again this time. At $9,700, the game isn't showing enough signs of life to deem him more than a flyer pick this week.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
March 18, 2025
With only two starts at the Copperhead Course, Tommy Fleetwood has never made this event a "must stop" on his schedule. But, the Englishman has played well on both occasions and comes into this week looking to add another solid finish to his resume. It's difficult to go as far as to call for a victory, as the 34-year-old has a well-documented history of winning woes on U.S. soil. However, this is a place seemingly ripe for him to change that. He ranks second on the season in strokes gained on approach (+1.076) and 38th in strokes gained off the tee (+0.349). A glaring downside for him would be his struggles with longer irons, as over 52% of approach shots come from beyond 175 yards. Fleetwood's proximity numbers for those distances mostly rank outside of the top 125. While another top week for him is expected, avoiding his massive ownership could be a better decision for most DFS builds.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 18, 2025
Things have not been pretty this season for Eric Cole, as the former PGA Tour Rookie of the Year has missed four of his last five cuts. The 36-year-old is bleeding strokes from virtually every part of his game, ranking outside the top 135 in any strokes gained category other than around the green (65th: +0.124). That doesn't bode well on most tournament setups, but especially not one as demanding as the Copperhead Course. Given the shorter length that Cole has to work with, it certainly seems viable that he'd have more success as we get further into the season, however, we'll have to start seeing improvements in multiple areas before playing him in DFS becomes fun again.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 18, 2025
Coming off a T48 at the API and missing the cut at TPC Sawgrass last week, Sam Burns will look to rebound at Innisbrook this week at the Valspar Championship. This is an event where the 28-year-old has thrived in past years having back-to-back victories in 2022 and 2023. From a course history perspective, he is one of the most dominant players in the field, as he sports a +2.809 total strokes gained at this course over his last 14 rounds. It has been by way of dominant approach play, with an average of +0.932 in strokes gained on approach. However, the two previous starts mentioned this season have been due to horrific iron play that will make repeat success at this championship difficult. If picking Burns is purely reliant on course history, he's a worthwhile pick; but the current state of his game is undoubtedly hard to trust.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
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