2 months agoJason Day uncharacteristically lost 4.8 strokes on approach at the Arnold Palmer last week, and he'll have to turn it around quickly heading to TPC Sawgrass, a track he's found success at many times before. Day's around-the-green game has anchored his strong play of late, but his irons were also great in February, leading to two top-10 finishes. The 36-year-old had three top-10s at THE PLAYERS, including a victory, from 2016 to 2019, but some putting trouble the last three years has left him outside the top-18 in each appearance. Day will look to find his strokes gained approach prowess early this week and ride it to a strong finish on Sunday, which he'll need to pay off a $8,900 price tag on DraftKings.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoTom Hoge is swinging some of the hottest irons on tour of late, having gained strokes on approach in all nine events he's appeared in to start the year. The North Carolina native had been putting well, too, until he blew up last week, losing 4.8 strokes with the flat stick at the Arnold Palmer Invitational while still finishing 12th in the field thanks to 8.2 strokes gained on approach. The 34-year-old brings some of the best form of late to a track that he's loved each year since 2019, finishing 33rd or higher in his last four appearances, including a T3 showing last year. At $7,800 on DraftKings and in the 60-70/1 range in the betting markets, it's a great week to take a shot on Hoge's strong iron game.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoMin Woo Lee has rolled over his strong finish from 2023 into some impressive numbers to start 2024. The 25-year-old has made all five cuts thus far, including a T2 finish at the Cognizant Classic two weeks ago. Lee has extreme upside with both his irons and his putter. To end 2023, the Australian was consistently gaining strokes with the flat stick, including two events where he eclipsed 6.0 strokes gained putting. This year, he's already shown great strokes gained approach ability multiple times, so it's clear he has what it takes to take down a tournament on any given weekend. Lee placed sixth in his PLAYERS debut last season, and with strong form coming in, golf bettors and DFS managers alike are flocking to the value option this week.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoWelcome back, Will Zalatoris. After missing most of last season due to injury, Zalatoris announced his return to form with two high finishes at the past two signature events. Zalatoris' new swing to his back has taken a few yards off his driver distance but increased his accuracy. A switch to the broomstick putter also turned him into a player who's now gaining strokes on the greens. His skills and form suggest a win is possible at the Players Championship.
--Rob RoseSource: pgatour.com
2 months agoIt seems like so long ago Viktor Hovland appeared poised to be among Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy as the PGA Tour's best players. The reigning champion had a solid winter on the DP World Tour but just hasn't had success to start the season. While Hovland has stopped losing strokes on approach in consecutive events, he's nowhere near his best. Also, Hovland has started to lose strokes around the green again and his usually elite ball striking can't cover it up right now.
--Rob RoseSource: pgatour.com
2 months agoAfter a great week at Genesis, Patrick Cantlay had another confusing week at API. Cantlay managed to make the cut but wasn't a factor from the first round. The biggest issue for Cantlay is that each week a different part of his game has been the problem. To start his putter struggled, but when he fixed that his driver fell off. After he started to perform better off the tee, his short game started to cause issues. It's possible Cantlay can clean everything up, but the inconsistency makes him hard to trust on a tough course with a talented, deep field.
--Rob RoseSource: pgatour.com
2 months agoAfter a well-documented stint of struggles last season, Justin Thomas is back in form. Thomas ranks No. 8 on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: Tee-to-Green. Thomas still battles some inaccuracy off the tee, but his approach and around-the-green skills are sharp again. Whether or not he can convert the chances into birdies determines if he will win, but Thomas has ended the concerns about the state of his game.
--Rob RoseSource: PGATOUR.com
2 months agoFrom tee to green this season, only Scottie Scheffler and Tony Finau have been better than Xander Schauffele. The problem for Schauffele has been his putting. On the greens, Schauffele ranks No. 126 on the PGA Tour but has still posted four top-10 finishes despite the issues. After two straight improved performances and a great weak at last year's event, things could click for Schauffele finally this week.
--Rob RoseSource: PGATOUR.com
2 months agoKevin Yu is set to debut at The Players Championship this week as he gears up to tee it up at TPC Sawgrass. Yu's recent performance at the Cognizant Classic was impressive, where he finished tied for ninth. Yu has had an exceptional start with three top-ten and one top-five finish this season. However, the TPC Sawgrass test might prove to be challenging for Yu, with his proximity to the hole on approach shots from 100-150 yards ranking in the 19th percentile over the past 12 months. This is significant since more than 30% of approach shots at last year's tournament came from this distance. While Yu has shown his ability to compete with the best, adding him to DFS lineups this week might be risky.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
2 months agoFrom a statistical standpoint, Nick Taylor has played more consistently than his turbulent finishes have reflected. In his last five starts, he's finished T12, T39, first, T71 and with a missed cut. The Canadian is butchering courses with his irons and putter, as he is ranked 19th in strokes gained putting (0.639) and 20th in strokes gained on approach (0.560). His Achilles heel has been off the tee, but what else would we expect from a guy with an average drive under 290 yards? Luckily, the Stadium Course is far from the longest track on tour at 7,276 yards, and most of a player's success off the tee comes from well-placed shots rather than a bomb and gouge. As long as we get the same player we've seen all season, Taylor is a strong play at $8,300 on FanDuel.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoBilly Horschel finished tied for ninth at the Cognizant Classic two weeks ago but did not participate in last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational. This week, he's all set to tee it up at TPC Sawgrass for The Players Championship. However, his performance at this tournament has been mixed in the past. In 2023, he missed the cut, and in 2022, he withdrew from the tournament. Considering his performance over the past 12 months, Horschel ranks in the 45th percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 100-150 yards in the fairway. Over 30% of approach shots were taken from this distance at last year's tournament, which may make it quite challenging for him. Though his recent form has been solid, including Horschel in DFS lineups this week comes with some risk.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
2 months agoAndrew Putnam performed well in the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, finishing tied for eighth place. He is now preparing for The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass, where he has not had much success in the past. Putnam failed to make the cut in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Despite having the necessary skills to compete at TPC Sawgrass, he has not yet found the right approach to tackle the challenging course. It's worth noting that over the past year, Putnam ranks in the 91st percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 100-150 yards in the fairway. This is important because over 30% of approach shots came from this distance during last year's tournament. While Putnam is a viable option for DFS lineups this week, including him comes with some risk.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
2 months agoAaron Rai had a good finish at the Puerto Rico Open last week, ending up at T23, and he has also had two top-20 finishes in his previous two appearances. Now, he is heading to TPC Sawgrass for The Players Championship. Rai has shown that he has the skills to compete with the best, and last year, he finished T19 at this tournament. It is worth noting that over the previous 12 months, he ranks in the 94th percentile in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 100-150 yards in the fairway. Given that over 30% of approach shots were taken from this distance at last year's tournament, Rai could be a valuable addition to DFS lineups this week.
--Ian Christenson - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
2 months agoIf making cuts was the name of the game, Denny McCarthy would be a bonified stud. He has only missed four cuts in his last 24 starts going back to this event last season, however, his game since the start of 2024 has been pretty mediocre with a best finish of T22. Strong play with the putter has been the backbone of his rounds, (currently ranked 34th in strokes gained putting: 0.463) which is the major factor in his success at TPC Sawgrass (T13--T60--T55--T41). The Rockville, MD native has been a hit or miss with the other clubs in the bag as he ranks outside the top 100 in strokes gained on approach (-0.026) and outside the top 150 in strokes gained off the tee (-0.411). It will take some monumental strides for McCarthy to be the "diamond in the rough" find this week, but if playing all four rounds is all you need, it's hard to argue he isn't the guy for it.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
2 months agoIt's always difficult to know what to do with the older group of guys like Justin Rose, especially at events where the cream of the crop is supposed to flourish. Seeing him at the tail end of leaderboards as we have most of this season lends itself to the belief that Rose is on the downward slope, but at the same time, no one would be surprised to see him in contention. For DFS players, that conundrum leaves us in a weird spot. The 43-year-old is playing putrid golf tee to green, and after -2.16 strokes gained on the greens at Bay Hill, no evidence points to him having a solid week at TPC Sawgrass. With a price tag of $9,400 on FanDuel, players should look elsewhere.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
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