January 4, 2019

Washington Nationals second baseman Brian Dozier entered the 2018 season bolted in as a top-five 2B in fantasy baseball after posting four consecutive seasons with 100 or more runs scored, 20 or more homers, and at least 12 stolen bases. 2018 did not go according to plan, though, as the pending free agent posted a career-worst .305 OBP and his worst run production and power numbers since 2013. Looking at his statistics, there was not much of a change in plate discipline, as his BB% was 11.1 in both 2017 and 2018 and his K% was similar in both seasons (20% in 2017 and 20.4% in 2018). There was an obvious drop in his BABIP from .300 to .240, odd because his hard hit ball rate was at a career-best 37.3% in 2018. In fact, Dozier's hard hit ball rate has either improved or stayed the same in each season that he has been in the big leagues (34.7% in 2016 and 34.1% in 2017 is just too close to call). When looking at Dozier's batted-ball profile, though, you see a drop in line drives (16.8% in 2018 and a career rate of 19.3%), a rise in ground balls (39.5% is his worse in a full season), and a jump from an infield fly ball rate in the 13% range in 2016 and 2017 to 17.1% in 2018. There was also news that Dozier played through a severe bone bruise in his knee throughout the season. The positive trends with his hard hit ball rate project well for the future, as does the fact that he saw a bit of a jump in his contact rate (79.4% in 2018 after posting a 77.7% rate in 2017), but the biggest factor for Dozier's 2019 prospects is how he assimilates with the Nationals offense. If Dozier can gel in the nation's capital, there is a strong chance that he approaches 175 R+BI, 60 XBH, and double-digit stolen bases.--Chris Zolli