Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Nyheim Hines - Rookie Recap/Dynasty Outlook


The Indianapolis Colts focused on bolstering the running back position during the 2018 draft, selecting Nyheim Hines in the fourth round and Jordan Wilkins in the fifth.

Hines was taken with pick 104 in the fourth round, making him the ninth running back to come off of the board in a loaded class. The 22-year-old actually started out as a wide receiver in college before shifting to running back later in his college career. As such, he has excellent hands in the passing game and was widely regarded as one of the top pass-catching backs in the 2018 draft. In addition to his skills catching the ball, Hines is also extremely fast. He ran a 4.38 forty-yard dash at the scouting combine, which places him in the 98th percentile at his position.

He was generally a second-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts this past year, although he did drop to the third round in many places after a disappointing preseason. Heading into the 2019 season, what does the future hold for Hines and how should he be regarded in dynasty leagues?

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Profile

Team: Indianapolis Colts
College: North Carolina State
Height/Weight: 5'9", 197 pounds
2018 NFL Draft: Round 4, Pick 104

 

Nyheim Hines' Rookie Season

Hines' rookie campaign got off to a rocky start as he struggled badly with fumbles during preseason action. The issues caused his ADP in dynasty startups to plunge from August to September amid rumors that he might not survive final cuts. The Colts wound up keeping him, and he went on to post 314 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 85 carries while adding 63 catches for 425 yards and another two scores. He finished as the RB27 in PPR leagues with 160.9 fantasy points.

While he finished as an RB3 for fantasy purposes, his final stats are a bit misleading as roughly one-quarter of his production came in Weeks 4 and 5, where he racked up 44.3 fantasy points. That time also coincided with a midseason injury to Marlon Mack, which led to more usage for Hines. Outside of that stretch, there were very few weeks where fantasy owners felt confident in plugging Hines into their lineups as a solid starting option, especially after the bye weeks ended.

 

Plenty of Competition

Hines formed part of a three-headed monster in the Indianapolis backfield as he had to split touches with second-year back Marlon Mack and fellow rookie Jordan Wilkins. Of the three, Mack (when healthy) operated as the team's clear lead back, especially on early downs and near the goal line. Wilkins mostly served as a change of pace option who was called upon to spell Mack when needed. Hines operated as Indy's clear preferred choice in the passing game, with his 63 catches ranking eighth among all NFL running backs and his 81 targets ranking seventh.

 

2019 Outlook

At just 197 pounds, Hines is simply not big enough physically to withstand the pounding that a lead running back in the NFL would absorb. As such, fantasy owners may have already caught a glimpse at his ceiling in fantasy in 2018, where he did some damage through the air but added very little of value on the ground.

Despite speculation that the Colts might be looking to add a big ticket free agent at running back, such as Le'Veon Bell, they are just as likely to remain committed to Marlon Mack as their lead runner and spend their cap space at other positions. Regardless of what happens with Mack when free agency and the draft roll around, it shouldn't affect Hines who profiles as nothing more than a third-down back in the NFL. The Colts are unlikely to add another pass-catching specialist in the next few years with Hines already on the team

From a best case scenario, the Colts will continue to feature Hines as their top pass-catching back in 2019, and he will be able to improve upon his paltry 6.7 yards per catch average. If Hines can up his YPC and make a few more trips to the end zone, an RB2 finish in PPR leagues is not out of the question, especially considering he is tied to Andrew Luck on what could be an explosive Colts offense in 2019. On the other hand, there's a good chance the Colts add a big name wide receiver to pair with T.Y. Hilton this upcoming season, which could cut into Hines' target share. After Hilton, the Colts employed one of the weakest wide receiver corps in the league in 2018, so that is definitely an area of need this offseason.

 

Dynasty Strategy

Hines doesn't hold enough dynasty value to be considered a sell candidate at this point as I would rather have him over his current valuation, which is around a late second-round or early third-round rookie pick. That being said, I am also not aggressively looking to go out and buy Hines, either. From a dynasty perspective, he profiles as a mere depth option at the running back position and not a player who you can rely on as an every week starter. At best, he holds value as a flex option in case of injury or a bye-week crunch.

If you have an interest in acquiring Hines in dynasty, there are a couple of routes to travel. You could try sending a third-round rookie pick to his owner and see if that's enough to pry him free. I don't think I would be willing to send a second-round pick for him. Another strategy would be to try getting Hines as a throw-in in a larger deal where he isn't the principal piece coming back. This is one of my favorite strategies when trying to buy fringe assets such as Hines in dynasty.

Hines sets up as a solid but unspectacular dynasty asset heading into the 2019 season. Consider him a younger version of Theo Riddick on a better offense. He doesn't have much upside but his job should be safe for the next few seasons, and he has shown to be an above-average third-down back in a good NFL offense. He isn't going to be a league-winner, but he is definitely an asset with some value as a depth option for dynasty owners.

More Dynasty League Strategy




More Recent Articles

 

Running Back Start/Sit Advice - Week 14

Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano break down the running back position to help with tough fantasy football lineup decisions for Week 14 of the 2019 NFL season. They decide who to start or sit among those in RB3 or flex consideration. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest... Read More


Week 14 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Fantasy Football Booms, Busts - Zach Pascal, Jamaal Williams, Gardner Minshew

Whether this is the first week of your playoffs, the last week of your regular season, or the time to win a DFS league to pay for your holiday presents, this is the most crucial week of your fantasy football season. While my booms from last week (Robert Woods, Jack Doyle, Dede Westbrook, Kyle Allen)... Read More


Wide Receiver Snap Counts and Target Trends - Week 13 Analysis

Wide receivers are essential components toward your ultimate goal of securing league championships. As many of you prepare for your Week 14 matchups, an expanding collection of tools are available that can provide you with an extensive level of knowledge. Those results provide the foundation for this weekly statistical breakdown of the wide receiver position, which... Read More


Week 14 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that the playoffs are beginning in most leagues and the final march for a championship has begun, streaming becomes a  necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions could easily be the difference in winning a championship.... Read More


Wide Receiver Start/Sit Advice - Week 14

Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano break down the wide receiver position to help with tough fantasy football lineup decisions for Week 14 of the 2019 NFL season. They decide who to start or sit among those in WR3 or flex consideration. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest... Read More


The King's Week 14 Lineup Rankings and Analysis (Premium Content)

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Below you will find my Week 14 fantasy football lineup rankings for the first round of your playoffs. The ranks are available in PPR, Half PPR, and Standard formats. They will be updated as needed, so make sure to check back for the latest versions, especially on the weekends. Skill Position analysis versus... Read More


Fantasy Football Disaster Recovery: Playoff Panic

Welcome to Disaster Recovery, where each week I'll examine why your studs played like duds. This isn't a place to find out why you should have sat a player for somebody else on your bench. Disaster Recovery is here to examine the guys who you didn't think twice about starting and to help you decide if you should... Read More


Thursday Night Football Matchups Analysis - Week 14

It's that time of year again! While many will be caught up in the thrills of the holiday season, those lucky few who have risen to the top of their fantasy leagues will be sweating over lineup decisions in pursuit of a championship (in most league formats). To our fantasy owners who have managed to... Read More


The Tape Tells All - Derrius Guice Fantasy Outlook

Welcome to another edition of "The Tape Tells All," where I break down some film of an NFL's player performance and try to draw some fantasy football conclusions from that film. This week, I'm looking at Washington running back Derrius Guice, who's finally healthy and finally getting a chance to show why people were so... Read More


Quarterback Leaderboards Before the Fantasy Playoffs - NFL Next Gen Stats

You won't believe it, but you weren't dreaming. That turkey you stuffed your face with a few days ago? Real. Those three games on a Thursday? Real, indeed. Your weekly meeting with football on the telly this past Sunday? Also real. All of that together only meant one thing: the fantasy football regular season is... Read More


Fantasy Playoffs Warning Signs: Wide Receivers

We all know a good wide receiver is important. Most leagues are PPR and more receivers are played than other positions. But the key is finding those wide receivers with favorable matchups. Just like with other positions, it is difficult to know at draft time which defenses will be good or bad by the time... Read More


Offensive Line Rankings Analysis: Week 14

Week 13 had the season's first snow game, a potential SuperBowl preview, and an incredible play from the Miami Dolphins special teams! If you haven't seen it have a look and come back. Now let's move onto Week 14. If you aren't in playoff contention, then this article could help you with some DFS selections.... Read More


Week 14-16 Playoff Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

The playoffs are here, and that means we're going to do things a little differently. I want to take a look at the playoffs as a whole (and in this case we are considering Weeks 14-16) and determine which DSTs you can ride all the way through and which ones you should stream this week.... Read More


NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 14) - Targets and Avoids

If there were a dozen people left in a survivor pool this past week, odds are those pools are down to just several. The upsets began Thursday when the Bills beat the Cowboys, and continued Sunday when the Dolphins and Redskins won as 10-point underdogs. If you're somehow still alive in your pool with just... Read More