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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 5/20/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
Yesterday's NRFI bets went 2-2 as we salvaged the split when the Royals and Giants went scoreless in the late game (and both pitchers ended up throwing gems). Today's full slate of games brings more opportunities for first-inning bets and the return of the YRFI, as I have not recommended one of those in a few weeks!
I thought I might end up with more bets on a big Tuesday slate, but it's four tonight as I have to enforce some quality control and avoid getting caught up in the quantity game. It's three NRFIs and one YRFI today, so let's find out which games we are wagering on and why!
In this piece, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Tuesday, May 20, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets today are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are picks where you determine whether or not two MLB teams will score one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
These are popular bets because bettors only have to sweat out the first inning and not the entire game's outcome. The most common outcome for the first inning is an NRFI, so the odds usually reflect that, with NRFI bets carrying shorter odds than YRFIs.
Even the best offenses in baseball are still only scoring a run in roughly 50% of their first innings. Every day, I'll weigh the Vegas odds against what I calculate to be the expected probability of an NRFI/YRFI in each MLB game and provide my top NRFI picks and/or YRFI picks for your consideration.
Best First Inning Bets Today (May 20, 2025)
- Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins (6:40 pm)
- Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers (7:40 pm)
- Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants (9:45 pm)
- Los Angeles Angels at Athletics (10:05 pm)
Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins NRFI (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- CHC: Jameson Taillon (8-1)
- MIA: Ryan Weathers (1-0)
Jameson Taillon takes the bump today and is having a pretty solid bounceback campaign for the Cubs in 2025. He enters with a 4.53 ERA, but a 3.84 SIERA suggests he could have some positive regression on the way. He's not a power pitcher with just a 20% K%, but he has been showing some excellent control with just a 4.4% BB%, which has helped him keep his WHIP down to 1.11 on the season.
He's been great in the first inning with just one start where he's allowed a first-inning run. And he will face a Miami team that has a 74% offensive NRFI rate on the season.
Ryan Weathers looked good in his 2025 debut yesterday.
5 IP, 2 H, ER, BB, 5 K
This was a pre-season draft darling in fantasy leagues and that talent hasn't gone anywhere...#MarlinsBeisbolpic.twitter.com/5j277ROzSM
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) May 15, 2025
For the Fish, they will put lefty Ryan Weathers back out on the bump for his second start of the season. Weathers missed the first two months of the season but had an impressive debut against the Cubs last week, holding one of the best offenses vs. LHP to just one run on two hits over five frames.
The Cubs are just 2-8 at scoring in the first inning over their last ten games and hitting just .191 in the first frame in that span. We have positive trends for the pitchers here and a ballpark in Miami that suppresses home runs, too, the one thing that can kill an NRFI instantly.
Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers NRFI (-118 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- BAL: Keegan Akin (1-0)
- MIL: Logan Henderson (2-0)
We have a fantastic rookie for Milwaukee in Logan Henderson, making his third career start against a Baltimore team that is reeling on one side of this matchup and an opener in Keegan Akin facing a Milwaukee offense that continues to struggle to get on the board early in games.
Logan Henderson's 2Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/KdbVKFG2OU
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 14, 2025
Henderson has looked every bit the part of a promising young starter in this league through his first two starts. He's sporting a massive 40% K% and 2.00 SIERA, both numbers that are not sustainable, but impressive nonetheless. Over the last two weeks, the Orioles have dropped below league average in wRC+ against righties with a mark of 97. They have some talented hitters in this lineup, but they continue to struggle at the plate and have just a 2-8 YRFI record over their last ten games.
Keegan Akin is a reliever, but has a pretty strong 26% K% this season with a 3.27 ERA through 22 IP. He's made only one other start as the opener but was successful in keeping the Tigers off the board his last time out. The real angle here is with the Milwaukee bats, however.
The Brewers have the second-worst NRFI record in the majors this season at 79%. They're current trend is even worse as they're at 90% over their last ten games. I like Akin to get his three outs and get out of the first cleanly before handing it off to Chayce McDermott as the projected long reliever.
Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants NRFI (-130 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- KCR: Michael Lorenzen (9-0)
- SFG: Hayden Birdsong (0-0)
We are back in San Francisco for another NRFI tonight. Like Bubic last night, Lorenzen has a perfect 9-0 NRFI record and will try to keep his streak going against the Giants. Lorenzen isn't nearly as good a pitcher as Bubic, but he has been effective enough for the Royals this year and is eating innings without getting blown up often. He does pitch to contact a lot, which makes me a tad nervous, but the Giants offense isn't a powerhouse to fear either, as they are just 2-8 on YRFI over their last ten games and sitting around 73% on the season.
Birdsong is making his first start of the season. He's been working out of the bullpen as a long man and has pitched well with a 2.31 ERA and a strong 25% K%. He has a tremendous matchup here as the Royals' offense has been bleak early, going 0-10 in YRFIs over their last ten games. KC ranks just 21st over the last two weeks in wRC+ against righties, and other than Bobby Witt Jr., there's not too much to be afraid of in the top of the order.
I like Birdsong a lot as a prospect, and I am sure he is itching to make a big impression tonight. These teams only combined for four total runs last night, and I think we continue to see the pitching dominate tonight.
Los Angeles Angels at Athletics YRFI (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- LAA: Kyle Hendricks (4-4)
- ATH: Gunnar Hoglund (2-1)
Let's get some early offense for once! I don't recommend YRFIs often, but this feels like a good spot for one. The Angels are one of the hottest lineups in baseball right now, especially in the first inning, where they have scored in 70% of their games over the last ten. The return of Zach Neto to the lineup in the leadoff spot has a lot to do with that, but Taylor Ward is hitting again, and Nolan Schanuel moving up into the two-hole gives them another very good contact hitter in the top-third, too.
If we don't get a run from the Angels in the top of the first, then I think the Athletics are in a great spot to get to Kyle Hendricks in the bottom half. Hendricks has allowed a first-inning run in four of his last five starts and is one of the worst pitchers taking the mound in any game tonight. He doesn't miss bats and allows a ton of baserunners. With Oakland having a strong lineup and being at home where they can take advantage of the small dimensions of their temporary home ballpark, I wouldn't be surprised if Brent Rooker or Tyler Soderstrom takes Hendricks out of the yard.
We have a perfect storm here! A hot offense against a rookie pitcher (Hoglund) and a very bad veteran pitcher against a top ten offense vs. RHP.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Longest NRFI Streak: Royals (10-0)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Angels (30%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Angels (5)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Padres (.391)
- Best First Inning On Base Percentage: D-Backs (.456)
That wraps up today’s top picks for NRFI bets today and our lone YRFI spotlight. With strong pitching matchups like Lorenzen vs. Birdsong in San Francisco and an emerging rookie in Logan Henderson taking the mound in Milwaukee, the value is there for disciplined NFRI betting.
Whether you’re tailing all four or picking your favorite matchups, these carefully analyzed NRFI bets today give us a solid edge heading into Tuesday's MLB action. Stay sharp, bet smart, and check back daily for the best NRFI betting opportunities.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and thanks for reading!
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