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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 6/16/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
Mondays often bring short slates, but that doesn't mean that we can't still find some YRFI or NRFI bets. We have just seven MLB games tonight, but I have found at least four of them on which to wager a first-inning bet.
If you read this column often, you'll know that the vast majority of our team's recommendations are NRFI bets, but today I have a rare YRFI bet to throw at you as well.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Monday, June 16, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. It's also just more enjoyable -- whenever I take a YRFI, it feels like an inevitable loss. There's nothing more tilting than watching your team strand baserunners when you need them to score in the first inning. If you're taking the YRFI, I suggest not even watching.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (June 16, 2025)
- Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins: 6:40 pm
- Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals: 6:45 pm
- Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays: 7:35 pm
- San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers: 10:10 pm
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins NRFI (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- PHI: Mick Abel
- MIA: Sandy Alcantara
The Phillies' rookie Abel will make his fourth MLB start tonight and is 3-0 on NRFIs so far in his brief career. You have to like his chances against a Miami team that ranks just 24th against RHP this season in terms of wRC+. The Marlins are 3-7 on YRFI over their last ten games and have one of the weaker lineups in baseball.
Mick Abel, Elevated 81mph Curveball...and Sword. ⚔️ https://t.co/7il4OglKzh pic.twitter.com/Jva7gc9E2Z
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 11, 2025
On the other side of this matchup, we have the former Cy Young winner Alcantara against a very good Phillies lineup. If you've been following baseball this season, you already know that Sandy has fallen on hard times and has often looked like a shell of his former self.
However, Alcantara has slowly started to right the ship. He's turned in back-to-back solid outings against Colorado and Pittsburgh, allowing just two earned runs over his last 12 frames. Philadelphia's lineup is much better than those bottom feeders, but Sandy has a six-game NRFI streak intact, and it's not been the first time through the order that has plagued him. It's been the second or third time through the lineup that other teams have broken it open against him.
We have a rookie and a very unstable veteran pitcher competing in this game, which is why we are getting such a discount on the price. I like the odds here and our chances at getting a clean first frame. If it gets messy after that, then that's not our problem!
Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals YRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- COL: Carson Palmquist
- WAS: Jake Irvin
So we are going for it today, the rare YRFI play on the card, and it has to do with the pitchers on the mound more than anything else.
These pitchers have a combined NRFI record of 9-10. Irvin has a three-game YRFI streak going, while Palmquist has allowed a run in three of his last four. Those are some major trends that support this bet.
But these haven't been unlucky YRFIs either. Opposing hitters are batting .316 against Palmquist in the first inning and .317 against Irvin. It's been three times as many starts for Irvin, but the results on a per-start basis are bad, as he's sporting a 1.07 first-inning WHIP and has allowed three first-inning home runs.
I know you might be thinking, "But these are bad offenses, Dan!" Sure, Colorado is very bad, dead last against RHP, in fact, but Washington has been much closer to the league average. All we need is one run from either side and just one of these two pitchers to slip up. I wish we were getting plus odds, but bettors favor the YRFI side because they already see some of the same trends I highlighted.
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays NRFI (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- BAL: Zach Eflin
- TBR: Ryan Pepiot
Eflin is just 6-3 on NRFI this season, but he has a three-game NRFI streak going and has been much more effective lately, racking up three straight quality starts and wins in his last three starts. He'll face his hold team tonight as Tampa puts their young co-ace Ryan Pepiot on the mound.
Pepiot lost his NRFI streak last time out as the Red Sox got to him early, but he has been pitching well overall and has a 10-4 NRFI record coming into this game. Two of those YRFIs came against Boston, so he's been quite effective against the rest of the league.
Ryan Pepiot's fastball was filthy tonight - got 14 whiffs on 39 swings 🔥 pic.twitter.com/beSI6bGLzO
— Andrea (@scoutgirlreport) June 11, 2025
The Rays' offense has been solid lately, but not in the first inning as they are just 1-9 on YRFIs over their last ten games. The Orioles' offense finally had a big day yesterday, but has been a below-average unit all season. They are 3-7 on YRFIs over their last ten games.
I like this spot a lot, considering we have two above-average pitchers squaring off, and we are still getting close to even money value. Eflin doesn't walk anyone, so he won't hurt himself and Pepiot has great swing and miss stuff that should help him generate strikeouts and navigate any baserunners he allows.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- LAD: Shohei Ohtani
- SDP: Dylan Cease
This game should draw a lot of interest around the league, as Ohtani returns to the mound for the Dodgers and faces the Padres' current ace, Dylan Cease.
Ohtani has no data for this season or last year in terms of NRFI, but we know that he has great stuff and can battle with any lineup, even a very good top of the order from the Pads.
Meanwhile, Cease is coming off a gem of a start against the Dodgers last week, in which he struck out 11 over seven shutout innings. Cease is now 10-4 on NRFIs this season and has the type of stuff to stymie even the best lineups in the first frame.
I am pretty amazed at these odds. I know both offenses are good, but both of these pitchers are also very good. Cease is in top form, and Ohtani wouldn't be out there tonight if the Dodgers didn't expect him to pitch the way he has in the past.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Brewers (100%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Red Sox (50%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Yankees(4)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Mariners (.372)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Mariners (.440)
Conclusion: Best MLB NRFI Bets Today (June 16, 2025)
Even with just seven games on the MLB slate tonight, there are still great opportunities to cash in with smart NRFI bets. From proven arms like Ohtani and Cease to emerging rookies like Abel, several matchups stand out for NRFI betting today.
Whether you're backing elite swing-and-miss stuff or fading cold first-inning lineups, this card features solid value across multiple games.
Don’t overlook the volatility of first-inning markets—stick to your strategy, manage bankroll wisely, and always monitor final lineups and weather. Monday’s slate may limit options, but it doesn’t limit upside. If you’re hunting for quick decisions and sharp angles, these NRFI bets today provide the best first-inning value on the board.
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