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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy NFL DFS prop picks for Monday, October 2, 2023. Welcome to our brand new NFL DFS series covering Underdog Fantasy contests! We will continue to focus on the NFL DFS props offered on Underdog called Higher/Lower (Over/Under).
Higher/Lower is traditional over/under DFS prop picks -- whether you think a player will score Over or Under the set lines, and choose your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (e.g., three picks = 6x your bet). Underdog Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games. At Underdog Fantasy, you're not playing against other people -- you're just playing against the projections.
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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Today
Be sure also to check out our brand new Props Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 27.5 Receiving Yards (LOWER)
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has not been heavily involved in the offense this season. Smith-Njigba has seen 14 targets for nine receptions and 57 receiving yards through three games. The Ohio State product has also yet to be targeted downfield, earning a low 2.71 aDOT through three games. Smith-Njigba has yet to see the volume or downfield targets necessary to reach 28 receiving yards consistently.
Matt Breida, 66.5 Rush + Rec Yards (LOWER)
New York Giants running back Matt Breida is likely filling in for the injured Saquon Barkley in this matchup against the Seattle Seahawks on Monday. Barkley has not been officially ruled out as of Sunday night, but his doubtful status would lead me to believe he won't be suiting up for this contest. The Seahawks have allowed the fewest rushing yards and yards per carry this season. In a game that should be competitive, I expect the Giants to lean on the passing game and Daniel Jones' legs.
Graham Gano, 6.5 Kicking Points (LOWER)
New York Giants kicker Graham Gano has only reached seven kicking points in one game through three weeks this year. Gano has also missed two of the five field goals he has attempted so that inaccuracy could come into play on Monday night. In a close matchup, I expect the Giants to lean more aggressive in their approach to avoid a 1-3 start to their season. Going for touchdowns over field goals will be the recipe for success, and Gano's kicking points should suffer.
Darren Waller, 47.5 Receiving Yards (HIGHER)
New York Giants tight end Darren Waller is undoubtedly the top target in his team's passing game. Through three contests, the tight end has earned 20 targets and turned those into 12 receptions for 132 yards. Waller is averaging 6.7 targets per game and 6.6 yards per target, meaning he should be collecting 44.2 receiving yards per game based on his current usage and production. In a game where the offenses should go back and forth, I expect Waller to be heavily involved and surpass his averages.
Tyler Lockett, 50.5 Receiving Yards (HIGHER)
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett faces a New York Giants pass defense that has allowed the third-fewest passing yards in the NFL. This lack of yardage is because the Giants also have the fewest pass attempts against them. That said, the Giants have the seventh-highest passing yards per attempt against, and Lockett is averaging 34.3 receiving yards per game. Lockett is yet to have an actual breakout game in terms of yardage this season, and he could do it this week against the Giants.
Kenneth Walker III, 11.5 Receiving Yards (HIGHER)
Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III was involved in the passing game against the Carolina Panthers in Week 3. The 22-year-old corralled three targets for three receptions and 59 yards in that matchup. In Week 2, the Seahawks running back brought in one of two targets for 11 yards. I expect at least a few dump-offs for the leader of the Seattle backfield, and he is talented enough to get 12 receiving yards on a single catch.
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