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Last week was not the greatest week with the Titans getting blown out and Browns losing in overtime to the Broncos. Week 7 does not get any easier with a couple tough divisional matches. The Bengals, Broncos, Bears, and Packers are on their bye.
For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week, if they win you move on to the next week. BUT you cannot use that team ever again. There is NO point spread involved.
Survivor League Strategy
I will be following the same strategy I implore every year when entering a survivor contest.
- Try to save the top teams for the end of the season. You do not want to be alive in Week 10 choosing between the Jaguars and Browns. Picking teams that you would not use later on in the season should be looked at early on. For example, last season the Jets played the Raiders in Week 1. I chose the Jets due to the fact that I knew this would be my best opportunity to use up the Jets and save other top teams like the Patriots and Seahawks later on.
- When in doubt pick the home team. Rarely will I be picking a team on the road in survivor. It is hard to win on the road, and teams tend to play better with their home crowd behind them. The one time I picked a road team last season, the 49ers lost at the Raiders and I was eliminated.
- Try to avoid divisional rivalry games also. Anything can happen with a rivalry game. Last season Washington was a 9.5-point underdog to the Cowboys in Dallas on Monday night football. Washington ended up winning, knocking many people out of their survivor pool.
- Never pick an underdog, unless you have no choice.
Before making any picks, look at each point spread. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us, use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.
The biggest favorites in Week 7, per sportsbook.ag (home team in CAPS); PATRIOTS -9 vs. Jets, CARDINALS -7.5 vs. Ravens, Seahawks -6. vs. 49ERS
Top Survivor Picks for Week 7
CARDINALS -7.5 vs. Ravens
The Cardinals played a bad game against the Steelers this past week, but can you blame them? They had back to back games in non pacific time zone, Detroit and Pittsburgh. They had the Steelers coming off of an emotional high after Le'Veon Bell's walk off touchdown. The Cardinals will destroy the Ravens this week on Monday Night Football.
The Ravens are bottom five in defending the pass. The secondary is all banged up and injured. They made Colin Kaepernick look like a star against them Sunday throwing for 340 yards on 16 completions and two touchdowns. The Ravens are 1-5 and now have to play another west coast game in Arizona. They have proven they are not a good team. The Cardinals secondary, 11 interceptions on the season, most in the league, will surely intercept Flacco, seven picks on the year. With their home crowd behind them, Arizona will have an extra urge coming off their loss in Pittsburgh to beat the Ravens.
COLTS -5.5 vs. Saints
The Saints are a very bad team. They got that much needed last week against division rival Atlanta and will now start losing again. The Colts played their best game of the year against the Patriots. As Bill Simmons noted, Andrew Luck covered the spread, his greatest accomplishment against the Pats.
Andrew Luck's shoulder will look great this week when he torches Rob Ryan's secondary, who rank bottom ten against the pass. Frank Gore, facing the second worst rushing defense, will have his best day yet. The Colts defense isn't great, but neither is Drew Brees's shoulder. I love the Colts in a blowout in this one.
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid for Week 7
PATRIOTS -9 vs. Jets
This line seems a little too high against a 4-1 hated rival. I am a Jets fan, but they have not had a convincing win that tells me they are for real. They beat the Browns, Colts, Dolphins and Washington. None of those teams are good. Now is their chance to prove they can play with the big boys. Mark Sanchez was the Jets quarterback the last time the Jets won in Foxboro in the divisional playoffs.
The Jets, second best against the pass and best in defensive points against, will have their toughest test yet. The Patriots have scored an average of 36.6 points per game, best in the league. Something has to give. Although the Jets rarely win in Foxboro, when watching them play the bring their best and play their hardest. The Jets lost by three points or less the last three times in Foxboro. I expect the Jets defense to put pressure and pick off Brady once or twice. They will keep it close, but we will find out if they have enough to knock out the reigning champ.
CHARGERS -4.5 vs. Raiders
Here is a game with a team trending upwards and one downwards. The Raiders coming off the bye are the risers. I really like the offense with Derek Carr and Amari Cooper and the devastating pass rush led by Khalil Mack and Aldon Smith. The Chargers almost beat one of the best teams in football, but now come home to a crowd that doesn't even want them. I fully expect more Raider fans to be in attendance.
This is a divisional game so anything can happen. Keenan Allen injured his hip so he may not be available this Sunday. This game is more of a gut feeling of mine, but I think the Chargers are a bad team who face a hungry young team off a bye.
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