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NFL Draft Sleepers - Trey Quinn


Trey Quinn might not the the Southern Methodist WR you know, but he might be an even better value in dynasty league than his counterpart, Courtland Sutton.

Quinn is currently projected as a late round NFL draft prospect and is going in the fourth round of early rookie mocks. At that price, he might be the biggest steal at the WR position which appears to lack some of the normal upside.

Quinn is largely an unknown WR prospect in the class because he failed to find success with his first team and he was largely overshadowed by a known commodity when he played at SMU. But he ended up out producing Sutton during his one season with the Mustangs.

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A High-Profile High School Prospect

Unlike most small-school draft prospects, Quinn didn't come out of nowhere as a high school athlete. In the class of 2014, Quinn was rated the 11th-best WR prospect in the country and the eighth-best overall prospect in the state of Louisiana by 247Sports' composite rankings.

YEAR RUATT RUYD RUTD REC RECYD
RECTD
2010 3 8 0 67 1238 9
2011 65 483 11 67 1220 12
2012 32 212 1 115 2141 26
2013 16 222 4 108 1967 23
TOTAL 116 925 16 357 6566 70

While it's expected that a high caliber player will dominate the high school level, Quinn performed like a star from day one. Never failing to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards, he topped out at 2,141 during his junior years. He ended his high school career with over 6,500 yards and 70 TDs. But more so than just his back-to-back seasons over 100 receptions, his statistics portray a player that coaches schemed to give opportunity. In addition to his receiving work, he had 116 total rushing attempts over four years with his sophomore season being his apex.

Quinn was measured at a 4.39 second forty which added to the excitement. Pair that with him standing at 6-foot-1 and weighing 200 lbs and there was plenty of hype surrounding Quinn when he joined the LSU Tigers in 2014.

 

Never Join a Team With a Poorly Coached Offense

As a Louisiana high school player, it's no surprise that Quinn would consider playing for LSU despite legitimate offensive issues that had lasted for years. But other receivers had come through the program and found major success. Entering the 2014 season, there was an opening at the WR position to help replace Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry.

 Career REC REC YDS
REC TD
Beckham 143 2340 12
Landry 137 1809 10

As shown by their career numbers, both Beckham and Landry were heavily utilized while playing for the team, but there's even a case that they were underused over the course of their career. Neither Beckham nor Landry managed multiple 1000 yard seasons and they only broke out during their last years in the program. But LSU was coming off of a season where they passed for over 3000 yards and Quinn appeared poised to contribute in a big way.

Year G Rec Yds Avg TD
2014 9 17 193 11.4 0
2015 5 5 83 16.6 0

But it never really came together for Quinn. With only 276 career yards as a member of the Tigers, he failed to make the expected impact. But it doesn't squarely fall on his shoulders. After passing for over 3000 yards in 2013, the Tigers barely cracked 2100 in 2014. Following a horrific 2015 season, Quinn made the decision to leave the program after deciding that it was no longer a good fit for him.

 

After a Year Out, It's Time for a Breakout

After sitting out for the NCAA-mandated season, Quinn would join the SMU Mustangs alongside NFL prospect, Courtland Sutton. He made his presence known early when he scored his first college TD during the opening game of the season.

Opponent Rec Yds Avg TD
Stephen F. Austin 4 53 13.3 1
North Texas 6 96 16 0
Texas Christian 7 116 16.6 1
Arkansas St 5 50 10 0
Connecticut 15 116 7.7 2
Houston 17 156 9.2 1
Cincinnati 17 186 10.9 0
Tulsa 8 101 12.6 2
Central Florida 11 47 4.3 0
Navy 6 87 14.5 1
Memphis 4 44 11 2
Tulane 6 139 23.2 2
Louisiana Tech 8 45 5.6 1
Total 114 1236 10.8 13

The highlight moments from his season are his three game stretch where he averaged over 16 receptions, his 100+ yard and two TD game against Tulsa, and his 139 yard and two TD game against Tulane. All of that added up to more than 100 receptions and more than 1200 yards.

2017 Comparison G Rec Yds Avg TD
Trey Quinn 13 114 1236 10.8 13
Courtland Sutton 13 68 1085 16 12

While they clearly have different skill sets, Quinn outperformed Sutton in receptions, yards, and touchdowns during his only season at SMU. However, it's Sutton's yards per reception and history of success that elevate him to a top prospect, whereas Quinn projects more as an ancillary option.

It's hard to imagine Quinn's transfer working out much better than it did. And while scouts were often in attendance to see his teammate, being in the periphery has made him slightly more known to NFL talent evaluators.

 

NFL Prospects

From a traditional production-centric evaluation, there are real concerns with Quinn. He fell well below the 29 percent career market share threshold, had a low yards per reception, and had a late breakout age. Using the regression tree from my WR previews, Quinn falls in one of the least desirable final nodes with only a 5.8 percent historical success rate.

But, with all that being said, there are a few positives to not for Quinn as a potential dynasty asset. NFL Draft Scout currently projects him at WR18 with a fourth or fifth round projection. In addition to that, he received an invite to the NFL combine. While receiving an invite, alone, doesn't correlate to NFL success, failing to receive an invite is historically disastrous for  receiver prospects.

The biggest selling point for Quinn, however, is his incredibly low acquisition cost. In a class that has most dynasty owners focusing on RBs, he's widely available in the last few picks of early mock drafts. At that price, he's an incredibly low-risk option who could become an NFL contributor and if he misses, he's an easy asset to cut from rosters.

 

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