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Welcome back and happy Saturday, RotoBallers! We have a potentially explosive matchup as C.J. Stroud and the number-four seed Houston Texans (11-7) head north to Baltimore to take on Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens (13-4) for an AFC Divisional Round matchup.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Texans vs. Ravens NFL DFS showdown slate on January 20. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Lamar Jackson - QB, $18,300 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 3,678 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, seven interceptions, 148 rushing attempts, 821 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns, and six fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 33.04%
I'll have to start things off on this slate with Lamar Jackson, of course. Not only will Lamar be the best player on the field for the majority of this game, but he arguably has the best matchup of anyone in this game. He projects to throw for 254.16 passing yards and 1.59 touchdowns while adding 50.21 yards and 0.33 touchdowns with his legs. I think he should project a bit higher in terms of rushing touchdowns, as the Texans rank dead last in the league in rushing touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks. I believe this one can lean either way -- a defensive struggle or an offensive explosion, and I'll be betting on the latter.
Nico Collins - WR, $15,900 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 116 targets, 86 receptions, 1,393 receiving yards, nine touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR1: -10.45%
I'll flip the field and take a look at Nico Collins. Collins had a massive Wild Card round, catching six of seven targets for 96 yards and a touchdown. He and C.J. Stroud have found their groove over the last 10 weeks or so, which makes me confident in running Collins despite his poor matchup and price. Collins projects to 7.26 receptions on 9.2 targets for 88.11 yards and 0.43 touchdowns. It'll be tough, but I think Collins is a target machine in this one and should rack up more than enough targets to -- at the very least -- justify paying up for him.
Other Captains/MVPs: Gus Edwards, C.J. Stroud, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
C.J. Stroud - QB, $10,200 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 3,844 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, 36 rushing attempts, 147 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, and four fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 15.75%
I'll take a look at the guy who will be throwing Nico Collins the ball in C.J. Stroud. The likely Rookie of the Year made his mark in the Wild Card round, throwing for 274 yards and three touchdowns against the stout Cleveland defense. It won't get any easier for him here, as the Ravens ranked first in the NFL in defensive DVOA against the pass (-29.34%). This certainly hampers Stroud's projections, as he is projected to throw for just 234.53 yards and 1.05 touchdowns while adding 0.79 interceptions. However, I can't justify fading him here.
Mark Andrews - TE, $7,600 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 61 targets, 45 receptions, 544 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs TE: 2.65%
Well... this play will simply come down to whether he suits up or not. If Andrews, who was a full participant at practice on both Wednesday and Thursday, can go, he's nearly a must-play at his price. The Texans rank 18th in DVOA against tight ends, and rank 30th in receptions allowed and 28th in receptions allowed against the position. Andrews projects to have 4.01 receptions on 6.02 targets for 44.34 yards and 0.4 touchdowns here, but I think he could have a massive game if he's a full-go.
Other Flex Options: Zay Flowers, Devin Singletary, Dalton Schultz
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Rashod Bateman - WR, $5,400 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 56 targets, 32 receptions, 367 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opponent DVOA vs Other WR: 17.12%
I'll take a look at a pair of Ravens in the value spot, starting with Rashod Bateman. Bateman had a very quiet year, mostly due to the emergence of Zay Flowers, but I'll back him to have a solid game here. The Texans rank 29th in receiving yards allowed and 17th in touchdowns allowed to receivers who line up on the left side, where Bateman lines up 45.6% of the time. Bateman projects to 2.5 receptions on 4.04 targets for 28.68 yards and 0.11 touchdowns.
Justice Hill - RB, $5,600 (DK), $6,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 84 rushing attempts, 387 rushing yards, 39 targets, 28 receptions, 387 receiving yards, four touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 7.84%
I'll wrap things up with Justice Hill. I think Gus Edwards has a very good game, especially if the game becomes a fast-paced one where both teams end up running a lot of plays. I think Hill is an even better option, given his price, despite the Texans ranking second in DVOA against the rush this season. They do rank 26th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game, which provides a great opportunity for Hill to catch some passes out of the backfield. He projects to 2.81 receptions and 18.95 receiving yards on 3.26 targets while adding 18.17 rushing yards on 4.2 carries. He projects to 0.27 touchdowns overall.
Other Value Plays: John Metchie III, Robert Woods, Ravens D/ST
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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