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Dawn's NFL DFS sleepers for DraftKings, FanDuel and Week 13 (2023). Her value picks and lineup sleepers for building winning daily fantasy football lineups.
We're on to Week 13, RotoBallers, and we're here to guide you through the 13th week of the season and find sneaky sleeper values to help you take down your favorite contest. If you're playing cash games, you don't have to have the top QB or RB of the week. But in Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs)? The best way to go is to focus on players with the highest potential upside for their DFS price.
This article will run every week throughout the regular season. It won't include the obvious choices but instead players who appear to be undervalued in current DFS formats. As the values currently sit, players will qualify as a value in DFS (based on DraftKings salaries) for this article if they are a quarterback in the 5k range, running backs who are 6k or less, wide receivers at 5.5k and under, and 4k or less for tight ends. When it comes to tournaments, stacking our quarterback with one of their pass catchers is a must.
It's crucial to prioritize players with higher guaranteed floors and consistency to increase our chances of winning cash games. No matter which game you choose, these picks will come in handy. So, without further ado, let's dive in!
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Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 13
Kenny Pickett, PIT vs. ARI | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,700
The Pittsburgh Steelers are keeping a close eye on Kenny Pickett's ankle injury but received optimistic updates during practice this week. That is good news for the Steelers as they have a great matchup this weekend at home versus the Cardinals.
Arizona is allowing 218 yards passing per game and is second in the league in first downs allowed with 22.5 per game. Their rushing defense is even worse, which will give Pickett and the Steelers plenty of opportunities for play-action and a great opportunity to add to their "win" column.
Russell Wilson, DEN @ HOU | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,400
The Broncos have won their last five games and are traveling to Houston to face an opponent who is trending up with the help of their young, star quarterback, C.J. Stroud. Denver's matchup with Houston is a good one, and Wilson should have success through the air, regardless of who's catching the ball.
At $5,700, Wilson will have no problem hitting value and more, whether it's throwing to Courtland Sutton or using his legs to get into the end zone.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 13
Javonte Williams, DEN @ HOU | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,600
I'm targeting another Bronco this morning because with a 47.5 over/under, Wilson won't be the only one running in this game. At $5,700, his rushing and pass-catching abilities will hit value, if not go over.
Over the Bronco's past five victories, Williams has scored two receiving touchdowns, and he has an average of 16 yards per game in receiving yards with three receptions per game. His rushing yards average over 60 per game, making him a valuable asset to the team. When stacked with Wilson, Williams makes for a sneaky yet effective pairing that I plan on utilizing this weekend.
Jaylen Warren, PIT vs. ARI | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,500
Another Steeler to add to this weekend's list of value players. In his last five games, Warren has 53 carries for 386 yards and 2 touchdowns. He's averaging three receptions per game and over 16 yards receiving per game.
In their last three games, Arizona is last in the league in rushing yards allowed, allowing 174.3 and at least one touchdown per game. Kyler Murray is back, but he can't help their defense stop the run. Warren and Najee Harris will be splitting time in the backfield against Arizona, but at $5,400, he's worth the slight risk.
Zack Moss, IND @ TEN | DK: $4,600, FD: $5,600
Moss will be this week's chalky running back, with Jonathon Taylor continuing to be out with an injured thumb. Moss has been here before and actually leads the Colts in rushing with 672 yards and has five touchdowns this season.
Tennessee is allowing just over 100 yards rushing per game, so it's not a slam dunk for Moss, but I'm expecting big numbers, and at $4,600, he's too cheap and too good to fade.
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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 13
Josh Downs, IND @ TEN | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,100
If you are looking for leverage off of the Zack Moss chalk, Downs is your man. Tennessee is allowing almost 225 yards passing per game with a 68% passing completion percentage. In his last five games, Downs has been targeted 32 times for 20 receptions, 290 yards, and a touchdown.
He's coming off a big game against Tampa Bay, where he saw 13 targets, bringing in five of them for 43 yards. He has only two touchdowns this season, but given how much he has been targeted this season, that number will go up, maybe this weekend in Tennessee.
George Pickens, PIT vs. ARI | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,600
With Diontae Johnson showing signs of boredom with the Steelers, Pickens could once again find himself a favorite target of Kenny Pickett versus the Cardinals.
The Pittsburgh Steelers decided to focus more on targeting Pickens during games after firing Matt Canada. In the previous week's match against the Cincinnati Bengals, Pickens caught three out of five passes, gaining 58 yards with an average of 19.3 yards per catch. The Arizona team has a weakness in allowing a completion rate of over 70%, which presents an excellent opportunity for Pickens and the Steelers to make significant gains through the air in their upcoming matchup.
Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. MIA | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,700
<sigh> I'm not expecting Washington to make Miami work very hard this weekend, but they will have to score a lot to attempt to keep up, and that means lots of passes and several of those going McLaurin's way.
Miami's defense is allowing over 200 yards passing per game and at least 1 passing touchdown per game. If there was a breakout game waiting for McLaurin, this could be the one, and $5,500 for a Pro Bowl wide receiver is too cheap to ignore.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 13
David Njoku, CLE @ LAR | DK: $4,100, FD: $5,600
The Rams are allowing 218 passing yards per game this season, and 60 of those yards were thrown to tight ends, with five touchdowns allowed for the season. In 11 games this season, the Chief has 51 catches for 492 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 9.6 yards per catch, currently first amount tight ends.
With Joe Flacco taking first-team reps this week, I'm looking for Njoku to be a favorite target this weekend. While I don't doubt Flacco still has a canon, I see more short-yardage throws to get him going, and 6' 4", 247 lb Njoku is a perfect target for the former Super Bowl-winning QB.
Logan Thomas, WAS vs. MIA | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,200
Thomas is another Commander who has an opportunity to score points simply because Washington will have to throw to try and keep up with Miami. Thomas is averaging 9.4 yards per catch this season, with 45 catches for 424 yards and three touchdowns.
Miami has allowed just three touchdowns to tight ends this season, but two of those three were in the last two games. If we are starting to see a weakness in the Fin's defense of tight ends, this would be a great week to test that theory.
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