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Dawn's NFL DFS sleepers for DraftKings, FanDuel and Week 12 (2023). Her value picks and lineup sleepers for building winning daily fantasy football lineups.
We're on to Week 12, RotoBallers, and we're here to guide you through the 12th week of the season and find sneaky sleeper values to help you take down your favorite contest. If you're playing cash games, you don't have to have the top QB or RB of the week. But in Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs)? The best way to go is to focus on players with the highest potential upside for their DFS price.
This article will run every week throughout the regular season. It won't include the obvious choices but instead players who appear to be undervalued in current DFS formats. As the values currently sit, players will qualify as a value in DFS (based on DraftKings salaries) for this article if they are a quarterback in the 5k range, running backs who are 6k or less, wide receivers at 5.5k and under, and 4k or less for tight ends. When it comes to tournaments, stacking our quarterback with one of their pass catchers is a must.
It's crucial to prioritize players with higher guaranteed floors and consistency to increase our chances of winning cash games. No matter which game you choose, these picks will come in handy. So, without further ado, let's dive in!
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Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 12
Gardner Minshew II, IND vs. TB | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,700
Minshew and the Colts are at home on Sunday, favored by -2.5 against Tampa Bay. Minshew has been productive, with the Colts ranking ninth in the league in scoring and 10th in rushing yards. The Bucs are ranked 31 in passing yards allowed, with 270 yards per game for the season and 305 for the last three games.
Indy is averaging 24.2 points per game this season, scoring at least 27 in their last four games. Win or lose (they should win this one), the Colts are putting up points, and I expect plenty this Sunday against Tampa Bay.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 12
James Conner, ARI vs. LAR | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,600
Conner has been displaying solid performances, averaging 9.3 fantasy points per game. In his last three games, he amassed 18.2 fantasy points by rushing 36 times for 181 yards. Over his past five games, he's totaled 41.4 points, rushing for 331 yards with a touchdown and adding 23 receiving yards on five catches.
10 players have run for at least one touchdown against Los Angeles this season and given up more than 100 yards on the ground to one player this season. The Rams have allowed 117 yards rushing per game this season, 118 in the last three games. At $5,900, Conner will easily meet his value and could be lower owned due to fears of Kyler Murray taking touches away.
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE @ NYG | DK: $5,800 FD: $6,800
Stevenson is looking great for his Week 12 matchup against the Giants. He's projected to score around 11.33 fantasy points, thanks to an expected 66 rushing yards and a possible touchdown. He's also likely to grab about 22 yards through the air and could snag a receiving TD as well.
Stevenson has been on fire lately, averaging close to 90 yards per game in his last five outings. Plus, he's up against the Giants' defense, which isn't the best at stopping the run -- they're ranked 29th. So, it could be a big day for him.
Javonte Williams, DEN vs. CLE | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,400
Williams faces a tough challenge against the 11th-best run defense in the league. However, his recent form in the last three games has been impressive, scoring 38.1 fantasy points, averaging 12.7 per game. During this stretch, he has rushed for 201 yards on 59 carries, but he has yet to score a touchdown on the ground.
Williams' impact is not limited to rushing. He has been equally effective as a pass-catcher, adding 60 yards on nine receptions from nine targets, including two touchdowns. This dual-threat ability has been a significant aspect of his recent performances and a way to overcome Cleveland's tough rush defense.
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Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 12
Diontae Johnson, PIT @ CIN | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,400
The Cincinnati Bengals have been struggling with their defense against the passing game this season. They have allowed four players to gain over 100 yards in receiving during a single game. Furthermore, the Bengals' defense has given up touchdown passes to 13 different players.
The question is whether Johnson will be the 14th player to score a touchdown. The Pittsburgh Steelers are up against a division rival, but the Bengals' star quarterback is out for the season. A backup QB typically leads to more turnovers, which in turn creates more opportunities for Johnson to find the end zone at Paycor Stadium (I had to look it up).
Demario Douglas, NE @ NYG | DK: $4,400, FD: $6,100
Douglas had a strong performance in Week 7 against the Buffalo Bills. He had four catches for 54 yards, a 20-yard rush, and a 25-yard punt return. The Giants are not good (unless they are playing the Commanders <sigh>) and have allowed 303.3 passing yards in their last three games.
Mac Jones will have plenty of chances to find Douglas in the end zone, with New York allowing 4.7 red zone attempts per game in their last three games. Win or lose, Douglas will go over value this weekend and has a great chance of finding the end zone.
Rashid Shaheed, NO @ ATL | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,800
Shaheed is expected to take on a more prominent role in their upcoming games, with Michael Thomas sidelined by a knee injury. The speedy wide receiver has a reputation for making game-changing plays, and it's worth noting that four of Derek Carr's longest completions this season have been to Shaheed.
Although Carr is unlikely to play this weekend, Shaheed will continue to be a valuable target for the team's possible starting quarterback, Jameis Winston, and will be looking to make more big plays downfield against their division nemesis, the Falcons.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 12
Hunter Henry, NE @ NYG | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,200
In Henry's last three games, he has caught 10 passes for 88 yards and has scored one touchdown. The Giants, who have the 22nd-ranked passing defense in the NFL, have allowed just two touchdowns to tight ends this year, but they were both in the last six games.
As stated above, New York has allowed 4.7 red zone attempts per game in their last three games. Mac Jones and the Patriots need a win, and no matter what Tommy Devito and the Giants did last weekend against Washington, I'm expecting a different outcome versus New England. Henry should get plenty of opportunities to find the end zone this weekend in New York.
Pat Freiermuth, PIT @ CIN | DK: $2,900, FD: $4,900
The Pittsburgh Steelers and their tight end, Freiermuth, are set to play against the Cincinnati Bengals, whose pass defense ranks 27th in the league. This season, the Bengals have allowed 13 players to catch a touchdown pass and four players to accumulate over 100 receiving yards in a game.
With Joe Burrow out for the season, the Bengals will be starting their backup quarterback, giving the Steelers more chances to force turnovers and more opportunities for Freiermuth to find the end zone in Cincinnati.
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