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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Packers vs. Raiders showdown slate on 10/9/2023. His Monday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! We're back with another Monday Night Football showdown article! While this matchup isn't the prettiest on paper, I think this is a pretty good DFS/sports betting game we have on our hands. The Green Bay Packers (2-2) will head into Sin City to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (1-3). After spending Week 4 in concussion protocol and not on the field, Jimmy Garoppolo will make his return for Vegas. We'll see how that affects our DFS lineups. Let's get right to it!
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Packers vs. Raiders NFL DFS showdown slate on October 9. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Josh Jacobs - RB, $15,900 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 62 carries, 166 rushing yards, 25 targets, 18 receptions, 173 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -27.23%
I'll start things off with Josh Jacobs. As you can see above, on the surface this doesn't look like a solid matchup for Jacobs and the Raiders. However, I think this very well could be a game of positive regression. Here are some of the Packers' rankings against running backs: rushing attempts (31st), rushing yards (28th), and rushing TDs (22nd). They also struggle against RBs in the passing game, with a 27.48% DVOA in that department. My model projects 76.14 rushing yards, 29.81 receiving yards, and a 74% chance of scoring a touchdown.
Jordan Love - QB, $14,700 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 901 passing yards, eight passing touchdowns, three interceptions, 16 carries, 72 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 42.33%
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at Jordan Love. I wrote about Love last Thursday against the Lions, where he was unfortunately disappointing in a poor team effort for the Packers. However, we're looking at a quality bounce-back opportunity. He should be able to work the Packers down the field, hitting his receivers while Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon do the work on the ground. However, if they were to get in goal-line situations, it should be noted that the Raiders rank 23rd in rushing TDs allowed to quarterbacks. My model projects Love to throw for 242.04 yards and run for another 12.59. He's projected to throw 1.85 touchdowns and has a 19% chance of running another in.
Other Captains/MVPs: Christian Watson, Davante Adams, Luke Musgrave
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DFS Flex Plays
Christian Watson - WR, $7,800 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: Four targets, two receptions, 25 receiving yards, one touchdown.
In lineups where I'm starting with Jordan Love at the MVP/Captain position, I feel like Christian Watson is a must. Watson is in a great matchup against the Raiders, who bring in a 41.3% DVOA against 'WR1s'. My model projects Watson to catch 5.77 of his 7.37 targets for 80.08 receiving yards and a 51% chance of scoring a touchdown. He has a top-10 matchup across all wide receivers this week and could be in for a big night.
Davante Adams - WR, $11,200 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 50 targets, 33 receptions, 397 receiving yards, three receiving touchdowns.
While I actually somewhat favor Watson's matchup here, I would be remiss if I didn't mention Davante Adams here. The Packers bring in a 31.2% DVOA against 'WR1s', it'll just be a matter of if Jimmy Garoppolo has the time to get Adams the ball tonight, as the projected pressure rate against this Raiders offense concerns me (42.59%). My model projects Adams for 8.62 receptions on 10.32 targets for 109.23 receiving yards and a 70% chance of finding the end zone.
Oh, and I forgot to mention the whole "revenge game" narrative.
Other Flex Options: Romeo Doubs, Aaron Jones, Jakobi Meyers
DFS Value Plays
Luke Musgrave - TE, $5,200 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 16 targets, 12 receptions, 125 receiving yards.
I'll look at Luke Musgrave as my sneaky end zone target tonight for the Packers. While he hasn't scored a touchdown to this point in the season, he takes on a Raiders defense that's allowed two touchdowns to tight ends in their first four games -- ranking 22nd in the NFL. My model gives him just a 25% chance of scoring, along with 3.06 receptions on 5.27 targets for 33.19 yards. However, should he find the end zone, he'll provide some great value on a top-heavy slate.
Ameer Abdullah - RB, $1,000 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: Nine targets, five receptions, 35 receiving yards.
I'll wrap things up with Ameer Abdullah. Abdullah interestingly enough has not run the ball a single time all season. That's not the reason I'm taking a look at him tonight anyway. I mentioned when talking about Davante Adams that the Packers project to an insane 42.59% pressure rate. This will open the door for screens, quick dump-offs, and potentially some yards after the catch for Abdullah. He projects to just 1.61 receptions for 12.37 receiving yards, but I think he can eclipse at least that yard projection on one big reception. At such a cheap price on both sites, this is at least worth a chance.
Other Value Plays: AJ Dillon, Anders Carlson, Daniel Carlson
Enjoy your week and good luck, everyone!
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