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Welcome back and happy Saturday, RotoBallers! We have a matchup between two NFC playoff teams, as Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions (11-4) head to "Jerry World" to take on Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys (10-5).
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Lions vs. Cowboys NFL DFS showdown slate on December 30. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
CeeDee Lamb - WR, $17,100 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 151 targets, 109 receptions, 1,424 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR1: 10.58%
I'll start tonight's slate nowhere else than I could imagine tonight with CeeDee Lamb. Lamb is among the top-projected players on tonight's slate, coming in projecting 8.08 catches on 10.4 targets for 115.41 receiving yards and 0.76 touchdowns. It doesn't need to be mentioned, but Lamb comes into this one among the top receivers in football. He gets the benefit of a top-ten matchup tonight as well. He'll no doubt be my highest-owned player despite his hefty price tag.
David Montgomery - RB, $12,900 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 195 rushing attempts, 910 rushing yards, 23 targets, 16 receptions, 117 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 3.09%
I'll flip the field and take a look at David Montgomery next. My model has the touch split between Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs relatively even tonight. Montgomery projects to 65.88 rushing yards on 13.45 carries, and 1.14 catches for 8.61 receiving yards on 2.21 targets and 0.63 total touchdowns. Dallas ranks fifth against running backs in the passing game, and while they rank 12th in defensive rushing DVOA, a 3.09% rushing DVOA for Detroit gives me enough confidence that the Lions will stick to the run throughout most of the game.
Other Captains/MVPs: Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown
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DFS Flex Plays
Dak Prescott - QB, $10,600 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 3,892 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, seven interceptions, 53 rushing attempts, 237 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and two fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 19.03%
I'll take a look at Dak Prescott next. Dak projects to have a massive night as well here, projecting 306.6 passing yards and 1.96 passing touchdowns, as well as 19.36 rushing yards and 0.23 rushing touchdowns on 4.57 carries. The Cowboys project a minor regression in passing DVOA (-5.14%), but they do have the advantage through the air as the Lions' defense ranks 4th in rushing DVOA (17.27%), but 16th in passing DVOA (7.92%). I think Dallas throws the ball early and often here, and I feel as though Dallas's passing offense is game-script-proof here.
Sam LaPorta - TE, $7,200 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 101 targets, 74 receptions, 776 receiving yards, nine touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs TE: 12.44%
I'll take a look at Sam LaPorta next. LaPorta surprisingly has the best matchup among all Detroit pass catchers in this one. He projects to 4.26 receptions on 6.18 targets for 45.54 receiving yards and 0.4 touchdowns. Dallas ranks in the top ten in all categories against tight ends, aside from touchdowns allowed, where they rank 19th. However, they rank 26th in DVOA against tight ends, which leads me to believe that LaPorta has a chance to have yet another massive game for the Lions' offense.
Other Flex Options: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff, Tony Pollard
DFS Value Plays
Brandin Cooks - WR, $5,400 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 65 targets, 43 receptions, 558 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR2: 16.39%
I'll take a look at a pair of number-two wide receivers in the value spot here. I'll start with my preferred of the two in Brandin Cooks. Cooks projects to 3.57 receptions on 5.27 targets for 49.74 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. Cooks has the best matchup in terms of DVOA in Dallas's passing game and moves around the field enough that I think he'll be able to find himself some beneficial matchups in this one.
Jameson Williams - WR, $3,400 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 38 targets, 22 receptions, 285 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR2: -29.32%
I'll wrap things up with Jameson Williams. This is more of a gut feeling than anything else here, as Williams comes in with some relatively weak projections: 2.06 receptions on 4.1 targets for 28.77 receiving yards and 0.17 touchdowns. He also doesn't have a fantastic matchup, actually coming in with the worst DVOA matchup among all Detroit pass-catchers. However, Williams is cheap enough that if he can creep his way behind the Dallas secondary, he can hit his value on just a play or two and I wouldn't be surprised if he's able to find the end zone.
Other Value Plays: Brandon Aubrey, Michael Badgley, Cowboys D/ST, Michael Gallup
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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