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John Burbaker's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Week 3 Giants vs 49ers showdown slate on 9/21. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
It's that time of the year again, RotoBallers! We're back at it with some Week 3 Thursday Night Football DFS picks. We'll see one of the best, if not the best team through the first two weeks, the San Francisco 49ers (2-0) play host to one of the worst-looking teams through the first pair of games this season, the New York Giants (1-1). Despite winning last week, the Giants took a loss, with Saquon Barkley falling to an ankle injury. We'll see how that affects our DFS lineups, let's get right to it.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Giants vs. 49ers NFL DFS showdown slate on September 21. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Brock Purdy - QB, $14,100 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 426 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 25 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown.
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: 44.82%
- Projected Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 4.46%
I'll start things off with Brock Purdy, who just continues to win. He's now 7-0 as a starter in the regular season, and 9-1 overall. Clearly, my model projects the 49ers offense to dominate tonight -- given the 44.82% projected passing DVOA. My model projects Purdy to throw for 225.34 yards and 1.60 touchdowns. My only concern here is the fact that the 49ers could go up big early and pound the rock. Nevertheless, I'll back Purdy here.
Brandon Aiyuk - WR, $12,900 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: 14 targets, 11 receptions, 172 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Deonte Banks): 18% target per route, 50% catch rate, 0.20 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll take a look at one of Purdy's pass catchers next in Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk has had a massive start to 2023 and will look to continue that momentum on Thursday Night Football. My model projects Aiyuk to grab 4.81 of his 7.71 projected targets for 61.05 yards and a 40% chance of catching a touchdown. He can beat Deonte Banks in the short and intermediate routes, or over the top. While I have the same concerns as I do with Brock Purdy, I really love the matchup here.
Other Captains/MVPs: Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, 49ers D/ST, George Kittle
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DFS Flex Plays
Christian McCaffrey - RB, $13,200 (DK), $18,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 42 carries, 268 rushing yards, eight targets, six receptions, 36 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown.
- Projected Offensive Rush DVOA: 11.5%
- Projected Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -3.63%
I'll take a look at the guy who is the top-owned captain/MVP on this slate, and for good reason, Christian McCaffrey. I will certainly have CMC captain shares, but the fact of the matter is he's quite expensive. Nevertheless, he projects to 17.26 carries and 88 yards on the ground, while catching 3.41 of 4.45 targets for 28.74 yards. He also projects an 83% chance of finding the end zone. He's averaging 152 yards from scrimmage across two games, and I have no doubt he goes over 100 once again tonight.
George Kittle - TE, $6,600 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: Nine targets, six receptions, 49 receiving yards.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Micah McFadden): 20% target per route, 100% catch rate, 0.6 fantasy points per route.
I'll be heavy on the 49ers here, obviously, taking a look at George Kittle. Kittle will be a beneficiary of the strong passing matchup for the Niners tonight and gets a positive matchup himself against Micah McFadden. He projects to 3.73 receptions on 5.27 targets, 40.62 receiving yards, and a 32% chance of finding the end zone. He's far too cheap with far too high of an upside to fade on this slate, in my opinion.
Other Flex Options: Deebo Samuel, Matt Breida, Daniel Jones
DFS Value Plays
San Francisco 49ers - D/ST, $5,800 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 15 points per game allowed, six sacks, four interceptions.
Considering I'm so high on the 49ers offense, far more so than New York, I might as well correlate it by playing the San Fran defense. Sure the Giants scored 31 points in the second half on Sunday. That was against the lowly Cardinals, whereas tonight they face off against the fourth-ranked San Francisco defense, which comes into this one with a -19.6% defensive DVOA. Not to mention, the Giants will be without Saquon Barkley, a huge blow to their running game.
Parris Campbell - WR, $4,400 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 10 targets, five receptions, 23 receiving yards.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Deommondre Lenoir): 20% target per route, 75% catch rate, 0.29 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll wrap things up with Parris Campbell. I wrote about Campbell in Week 1 against the Cowboys, where he logged just one reception for two yards. However, he did see four targets that game, and another six targets on Sunday. My model sees Campbell catching 3.07 of his 4.51 targets tonight for 32.01 receiving yards and a 19% chance of scoring a touchdown. His target rate across the first two weeks as well as his projected targets tonight make him too good of value to fade.
Other Value Plays: Jake Moody, Graham Gano
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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