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John Brubaker's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Saturday Night Week 16 Bills vs. Chargers showdown slate on 12/23. His Saturday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back and happy Saturday, RotoBallers! We have a matchup between two AFC teams who are headed in different directions, as the Buffalo Bills (8-6) look to continue to roll as they head west and take on the Los Angeles Chargers (5-9) in their first game without Brandon Staley.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bills vs. Chargers NFL DFS showdown slate on December 23. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Stefon Diggs - WR, $16,500 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 137 targets, 91 receptions, 1,041 receiving yards, eight touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR1: 25.5%
I'll start things out tonight with Stefon Diggs. Diggs has had a slow few weeks of late, catching just eight of 16 targets for 72 yards over the last two weeks. My model has him topping those totals in this one alone against a Chargers defense that struggles against the pass, ranking 28th in passing DVOA. My model has him catching 8.47 of his 9.78 targets tonight for 99.07 yards and 0.78 touchdowns.
James Cook - RB, $15,000 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 188 rushing attempts, 968 rushing yards, 47 targets, 40 receptions, 433 receiving yards, six touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 11.04%
I'll take a look at James Cook next. Not only do the Chargers struggle against the pass, but they're not doing too hot against the run either. They rank 25th in rushing DVOA and 29th against running backs in the passing game. Cook's gathered 42 touches in the last two games, including a 25-carry, 179-yard performance against the Cowboys on Sunday. Tonight, he projects to 12.8 carries for 74.48 rushing yards, and 3.58 receptions on 3.78 targets for 30.87 yards. My model also projects him to score 0.59 touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Josh Palmer, Josh Allen, Quentin Johnston
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DFS Flex Plays
Josh Allen - QB, $11,400 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 3,541 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 80 rushing attempts, 398 rushing yards, 11 rushing touchdowns, and three fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 46.1%
I'll take a look at Josh Allen next as a strong correlation play with Stefon Diggs. As previously mentioned, the Chargers struggle against the pass. This shows according to my model's projections that have Allen throwing for 284.47 yards and 2.11 touchdowns. He'll also use his rushing ability to his advantage, taking 4.72 rushes for 26.15 yards and 0.24 touchdowns. Allen and Diggs are somewhat limited due to the projected game script, where I feel the Bills take over in all facets. Nevertheless, I think Allen and Diggs are a strong combo.
Josh Palmer - WR, $7,600 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 43 targets, 27 receptions, 490 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR1: -14.08%
I'll flip the field and take a look at Joshua Palmer next. Palmer had himself a solid Week 15, catching all four of his targets for 113 yards and a touchdown. While the DVOA matchup isn't an indicator of a repeat performance, it is worth noting that with Keenan Allen out Palmer will take over the pseudo-number-one receiver role, and should see an increase in targets given the game script. My model projects him to grab 4.67 of his 7.66 targets for 49.35 and 0.31 touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: Austin Ekeler, Dalton Kincaid, Easton Stick
DFS Value Plays
Quentin Johnston - WR, $5,200 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 51 targets, 31 receptions, 356 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR2: 20.83%
While Palmer gets the bump to "WR1", rookie receiver Quentin Johnston gets the bump to "WR2". Johnston draws the better matchup of the two, and it is worth noting that Johnston has logged at least 10 PPR points in each of the last two weeks. On top of this, Johnston lines up in the slot 40.9% of the time, where the Bills rank 20th in receptions allowed and 18th in receiving yards allowed. Johnston projects to 2.94 receptions on 5.16 targets for 35.46 yards and 0.22 touchdowns.
Gerald Everett - TE, $4,200 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 52 targets, 39 receptions, 334 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs TE: 1.48%
I'll wrap things up with Gerald Everett, and why not, right? The Bills are in the upper half of the league against tight ends, but one of my favorite fantasy cliches is that a tight end is a backup quarterback's best friend. This showed last week when Everett grabbed five of his eight targets for 41 yards. Tonight, my model projects Everett for 3.81 receptions on 4.48 targets for 36.01 yards and 0.17 touchdowns. He and Johnston are an excellent value pairing on this slate, but it should be noted that I will not be playing all three of Palmer, Johnston, and Everett in the same lineup.
Other Value Plays: Tyler Bass, Bills D/ST
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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