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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! We're back with another Monday Night Football showdown article! We have what could end up being a lopsided showdown tonight, as Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers (5-1) head up north to take on Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings (2-4). The 49ers are coming off their first loss of the 2023 season against Cleveland last week, and the Vikings will once again be without Justin Jefferson. Let's see how that affects our DFS lineups.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the 49ers vs. Vikings NFL DFS showdown slate on October 23. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Brock Purdy - QB, $15,300 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 1,396 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, one interception, 15 carries, 31 yards, two touchdowns.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 61.91%
I'll start things off with Brock Purdy. Purdy took his first regular-season loss as a starter last Sunday in Cleveland, and now he and the Niners are looking to bounce back. Purdy projects to complete north of 75% of his passes for 247.42 yards and 1.69 touchdowns. The game script worries me a bit given if the 49ers start to pull away it somewhat caps his ceiling, but I'll take the shot (and the discount) and rock with Purdy at the 1.5x spot while correlating him with some of his pass-catchers in the flex spots.
George Kittle - TE, $10,800 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 25 targets, 18 receptions, 216 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
I'll take a look at George Kittle next. I'll be loading my lineups with 49ers, so we're going to have to take value shots where we can get them -- including at the 1.5x spot. Kittle projects to grab 4.3 of his 5.78 targets for just about 45 yards. He also projects to 0.43 receiving touchdowns. The Vikings rank in the bottom third in receptions (21st) and receiving touchdowns (24th) allowed to tight ends this season.
Other Captains/MVPs: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers D/ST
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DFS Flex Plays
Christian McCaffrey - RB, $12,000 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 110 carries, 553 rushing yards, 27 targets, 23 receptions, 177 receiving yards, nine touchdowns.
- Projected Rushing DVOA: 9.35%
I have to take a look at CMC here. While the offensive funnel leans toward the passing game for San Francisco, the game script does not. McCaffrey is script-proof anyway, as he plays such a key role in both. This will be boosted tonight as Deebo Samuel will be out with a shoulder injury. McCaffrey projects to 67.9 yards on the ground as well as 3.31 receptions for 23.98 yards and 0.6 touchdowns. This could be a down game for him, so we'll be a bit different and minimize our 1.5x ownership.
Alexander Mattison - RB, $6,600 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 82 carries, 320 rushing yards, 28 targets, 18 receptions, 104 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Projected Rushing DVOA: 10.92%
The only Vikings player I'll write up tonight will be Alexander Mattison. Mattison hasn't offered a whole lot to the Vikings offense this early in the year, but it's not for a lack of trying. Tonight, I don't think he'll be very efficient on the ground, but I think he'll get the ball a lot. The Vikings project to run more plays than usual, but take more time in between them. That, along with some projected positive regression (albeit not much) on the ground points to Mattison getting some volume tonight. My model projects Mattison to amount just 53.59 yards tonight, but touch the ball 16.26 times. He also projects to 0.42 touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: Brandon Aiyuk, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, Kirk Cousins
DFS Value Plays
San Francisco 49ers - D/ST, $5,000 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 14.5 points per game allowed, 15 sacks, 10 interceptions, one fumble recovery.
I'll take a look at the 49ers defense here. In a game where the other teams' "funnel" points towards the running game and they're a seven-point underdog, it makes the opposing defense a pretty solid play in DFS. Not to mention, the Vikings' offense is turning the ball over at an alarming rate. I'll back the Niners to get the job done and take care of business against an inferior Minnesota offense that's missing their best player.
Jauan Jennings - WR, $4,000 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 12 targets, seven receptions, 127 receiving yards.
I'll wrap things up with Jauan Jennings. Jennings doesn't project to a lot of stats tonight, though he is projected to catch all 3.18 of his targets for 33.28 receiving yards and 0.14 touchdowns. He does have the best matchup of the weekend though with Deebo Samuel ruled out, as the Vikings bring in a 67.32% DVOA against 'WR2s'. While Jennings is not technically a WR2, I'll take a shot on him getting behind Minnesota's secondary and effectively breaking the slate.
Other Value Plays: Greg Joseph, Jordan Mason
Enjoy your week and good luck, everyone!
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