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John Brubaker's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - TNF Week 12 49ers vs Seahawks showdown slate on 11/6. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back and Happy Thanksgiving RotoBallers! I hope you all enjoy your days with your families as we wrap things up by dominating the nightcap here. We have a fun divisional matchup for the Thursday Night Football game, as Brock Purdy and the 49ers (7-3) head north to Seattle to take on (maybe?) Geno Smith and the Seahawks (6-4). The Seahawks will be looking to bounce back after a disappointing loss to the Rams on Sunday, while the 49ers will look to keep it going.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the 49ers vs. Seahawks NFL DFS showdown slate on November 23. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Christian McCaffrey - RB, $18,000 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 174 rushing attempts, 825 rushing yards, 52 targets, 43 receptions, 364 receiving yards, 14 touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 3.54%
I'll start tonight's slate off with Christian McCaffrey. CMC has been dominant all season and dominated against the Seahawks last season. He ran the ball 26 times for 108 yards and caught six passes for 30 yards. He also found the end zone in that game. Tonight, he projects to 15.44 carries for 83.11 yards while catching 4.29 of 5.82 targets for 40.49 yards and 1.25 total touchdowns. He should dominate both on the ground and through the air, making it a tough spot to fade him here despite his price.
George Kittle - TE, $11,100 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 56 targets, 43 receptions, 648 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs TE: 10.65%
I'll take a look at George Kittle next. I've been a big Kittle guy all season, especially in these showdown slates. Tonight Kittle projects very well; 5.37 receptions, 6.67 targets, 64.01 receiving yards, and 0.37 touchdowns. The Seahawks have been up and down against tight ends this season, but their 10.65% against ranks 23rd in the league. They also rank 23rd in receptions allowed and 22nd in receiving yards allowed.
Other Captains/MVPs: Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, 49ers D/ST, Zach Charbonnet
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DFS Flex Plays
Brock Purdy - QB, $10,000 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 2,662 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, 30 rushing attempts, 121 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and two fumbles lost.
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: 73.17%
As you can probably tell, I'm pretty high on a Niners onslaught tonight. Between a running back that can catch passes out of the backfield like CMC, along with my projected game script, I don't think there are any negative correlations for San Francisco tonight (outside of playing multiple running backs in the same lineup). Nevertheless, their strong projected passing DVOA suits Brock Purdy well, who projects to 259.47 passing yards and 1.62 touchdowns and is the second-highest projected player on the slate just behind CMC.
Deebo Samuel - WR, $8,000 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 22 rushing attempts, 123 rushing yards, 40 targets, 27 receptions, 395 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs WR2: 23.07%
Brock Purdy will likely be throwing the ball quite a bit to Deebo Samuel tonight. Samuel has dropped to the "WR2" spot in the 49ers' offense, but that actually benefits him tonight (Seattle's DVOA vs WR1 is -2.6% as rookie Devon Witherspoon has really made his mark this season). Deebo will surely work out of the slot as he has 46.6% of the time this season, where the Seahawks struggle ranking 31st in targets allowed, 32nd in receptions allowed, and 29th in receiving yards allowed. Samuel projects to 64.54 rushing and receiving yards and 0.45 touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: Zach Charbonnet, Brandon Aiyuk
DFS Value Plays
San Francisco 49ers - D/ST, $5,200 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 15.7 points per game allowed, 27 sacks, 14 interceptions, five fumble recoveries.
With me being so heavy on the 49ers in this one, it's no shock that I'll be eyeing up their defense when looking for value plays. Their defense hasn't totally made their mark on the 2023 season just yet, but still project really well tonight. They haven't allowed more than 23 points against this Seahawks defense since October of 2021, and the Seahawks are no doubt banged up. As I'm writing this on Tuesday night, DK Metcalf (toe) and Kenneth Walker III (oblique) have not practiced, and Geno Smith (elbow) was limited. This could be a huge game for the Niners on the defensive side of the ball.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - RB, $5,400 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 12 rushing attempts, 172 rushing yards, four targets, three receptions, 37 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
- Opposing Defensive DVOA vs 'Other' WR: 6.07%
I'll wrap things up with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With all the things mentioned previously in this article, as well as the Vegas line (SF -7), the game script definitely leans toward the passing game. My strategy here would be to attack the best matchup in the Seattle offense. That honor goes to JSN, who has the best matchup of any of the Seattle pass catchers. He's run on the right side of the field at a 70.2% clip this season, where San Francisco ranks 26th in targets allowed and 29th in receptions allowed. Both he and Zach Charbonnet are good options on the Seattle side of things.
Other Value Plays: Elijah Mitchell, Jason Myers, Jake Moody
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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