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Today's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, Fanduel - Packers vs. Bills Sunday showdown slate for the Wild Card Round (Jan 14, 2024). John's NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! It's playoff time, and we have a fun Wild Card matchup between two rivals as Jordan Love looks to make his playoff debut as he and the Green Bay Packers (9-8) head into Jerry World to take on Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and the Dallas Cowboys (12-5). There are plenty of narratives to watch in this game, and it'll be interesting to see a team that comes into the playoffs hot in Green Bay take on a more talented Dallas team that relatively struggled on its way to this matchup.
We've been pretty successful over the past few seasons with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend into the playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Packers vs. Cowboys Sunday NFL DFS showdown slate on January 14. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Dak Prescott - QB, $17,100 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 4,516 passing yards, 36 passing touchdowns, nine interceptions, 55 rushing attempts, 252 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and two fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 27.53%
I'll start things off for this matchup with Dak Prescott. It'll be Dak's fifth crack at the postseason, and it seems as though the stakes have never been higher for them. I find this to be a huge game for Dak and the Cowboys, to get the train rolling against a team they're more talented than in every facet. My model projects Dak to answer the bell, throwing for 280.54 yards and 2.23 touchdowns while adding 16.83 yards on the ground. This Green Bay defense has struggled against both the pass and run, so Dallas should have no issues moving the ball up and down the field
Tony Pollard - RB, $13,200 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 252 rushing attempts, 1,005 rushing yards, 67 targets, 55 receptions, 311 receiving yards, six touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -1.00%
Should Dallas be able to move the ball up and down the field, I would expect Tony Pollard to play a big part in that. Pollard had a "down" year in 2023, relative to expectations, but these playoffs should feel like a fresh start for him. He'll head the backfield against a Packers defense that ranked 23rd in rushing yards allowed and 26th in rushing touchdowns allowed this season. My model projects Pollard for 63.61 yards on 13.55 carries, 19.58 receiving yards on 2.5 receptions (3.49 targets), and 0.75 total touchdowns in this one.
Other Captains/MVPs: CeeDee Lamb, Aaron Jones, Cowboys D/ST
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
CeeDee Lamb - WR, $12,200 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 14 carries, 113 rushing yards, 181 targets, 135 receptions, 1,749 receiving yards, 14 touchdowns, and two fumbles lost.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: 16.42%
I'll start by saying that just because I don't have CeeDee Lamb written in the 1.5x spot, doesn't mean I won't have shares of him there. Lamb has had an incredible season and comes into this matchup with arguably the best matchup of the weekend across the board for receivers. He certainly has the price tag that comes along with it, but it may be worth it as my model projects him to catch 8.7 of his 12.08 targets for 114.08 yards and 0.91 touchdowns. Big players show up in big moments and if Dallas is going to make a run here, I would think a lot of it goes through Lamb.
Aaron Jones - RB, $9,000 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 142 rushing attempts, 656 rushing yards, 43 targets, 30 receptions, 233 receiving yards, three touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -15.48%
I'll flip the field for the first time in this article and take a look at Aaron Jones. It needs to be said that Dallas had somewhat struggled against the running game towards the end of the season, coming in 29th in rush attempts allowed and 30th in rushing yards allowed in their last four weeks (excluding Week 18). Jones projects to tote the rock 14.86 times for 67.38 yards and grab 1.91 receptions on 3.91 targets for 13.86 yards. He projects to score just 0.52 touchdowns, but I believe that Matt Lafleur will do everything he can to keep the pressure off of Jordan Love -- both literally and figuratively -- so we will see Aaron Jones in earnest here.
Other Flex Options: Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, Brandin Cooks
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Jake Ferguson - TE, $5,400 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 102 targets, 71 receptions, 761 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 12.61%
I'll start things off in the "value" bin with Jake Ferguson. Ferguson put together an impressive 2023, which has me a bit curious as to why his price is so cheap, particularly on DraftKings. I imagine that Ferguson will be featured several times tonight against this Packers defense that ranks 6th in DVOA against the tight end, and particularly struggles to keep them out of the end zone (27th, 0.44 TD/game). Ferguson projects to 4.6 receptions on 6.19 targets for 49.78 yards and 0.49 touchdowns.
Dallas Cowboys - D/ST, $4,800 (DK), $9.500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 18.18 points per game allowed, 46 sacks, 17 interceptions, nine fumble recoveries, seven defensive touchdowns.
I'll wrap things up with the Dallas defense. After going through this entire slate I realized that I had found just one Packer that I could trust, which leads me to think that Dallas's defense is a solid option. The Packers project to regress quite a bit against this Cowboys' defense that ranked 5th in total defensive DVOA this season. Not only that, Dallas projects an absurd 58.16% pressure rate on Jordan Love, which could make things uncomfortable for the rookie quarterback getting his first playoff start in Dallas.
Other Value Options: Christian Watson (if available), Michael Gallup, Luke Musgrave
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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