RADIO
Had some nice hits in Week 7 with Robert Woods topping his listed receiving yards total, followed by a snoozefest under in the Carolina/New York Giants game. I still love the Eagles moneyline play, but Miles Sanders getting hurt early put the nail in the coffin for that one. Onto a strong Week 8!
- 2021 Season: 8-14 (36%, -6.6u)
- Spread: 4-2, +1.5u
- Total/Team Total: 2-9, -7.1u
- Moneyline: 0-3, -2.3u
- Props: 2-0, 1.3u
As of August, this is my fourth NFL season writing for RotoBaller and I couldn’t enjoy being a part of this amazing site with amazing writers and analysts. However, I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 8 of the 2021 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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NFL Over/Under Betting Picks
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Sunday 10/31, 1 PM EST | O/U: 47
It feels like we were just targeting the Christian McCaffrey-less Panthers last week. Well, that's because we were. They have the fewest yards per game (248) and yards per play (3.7) in the NFL over the L3 games, and are bottom five in points per game (16) in that same stretch. Sam Darnold did a good job fooling us to open the season, but over the last three starts he hasn't thrown for more than 207 yards in a game and has a 2/5 TD/Int against the Eagles, Vikings, and Giants. Yikes. Rookie running back Chuba Hubbard has been solid as the lead back, but with seven turnovers as a team since Week 5, individual performances won't matter much.
Atlanta got back their star receiver Calvin Ridley in Week 7 and it resulted in a hard fought 30-28 win over the Miami Dolphins. After a slow start, Matt Ryan has surged a bit over the last two, throwing for over 330 yards and two scores in both. However, the four turnovers in those two games will need to be worked on if the Falcons want to keep winning games. Defensively, Atlanta has a lot of holes. They've surrendered and average of over 350 yards and 27 points in the L3. As mentioned, Carolina isn't exactly an offense to worry about but if there's a team to let them get back into a swing, it's Atlanta.
Maybe I'm missing something here, but this total is too high for these offenses. Understandable with Atlanta playing well their last two, but Carolina's defense had shown signs of life to start the season and I think they get back on track against the Falcons and keep this one low-scoring.
Pick: Under 47 (-110, BetMGM) 1 Unit
NFL Betting Picks - Spread
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Sunday, 10/31, 1 PM EST | O/U: 50.5
The Titans have riden Derrick Henry train all the way to a 5-2 record and an early lead in the AFC South. The absolute monster running back averages 124 ypg and has 10 scores already. The passing game, under Ryan Tannehill, could use some more work but consider that A.J. Brown has missed time and now Julio Jones (hamstring) was declared OUT for Sunday's game. Expect more of Henry in a big division matchup. Defensively, the Titans house one of the leagues worst units, although they did hold the Chiefs to just three points in Week 7. They've allowed over the 330 yards of offense in every game so far except one. That one game was a 25-16 win over Indianapolis when they held the Colts to just 265 yards in Week 3.
It's hard to find a hotter team that Indianapolis right now. After an 0-3 start, they've won three of the last four with all of those wins coming by double digits. Carson Wentz hasn't needed to do too much, instead the offense is relying on Jonathan Taylor who is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and has rushed for over 100 yards in all three wins. Defensively, the Colts are tied for the NFL lead with 16 takeaways, including seven in their last two games. Based on DVOA, they have the top rushing defense in the league which should help them even when facing back like Henry.
You can convince me that the Colts are good but we seem to be forgetting that the Titans have beaten both the Bills and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks and them being underdogs here is a weird line, in my opinion. Derrick Henry is a beast, and even against a run defense as good as Indy's I'm riding the coat tails of the Titans on the road here.
Pick: Tennessee +3 (-115, Barstool) 1 Unit
NFL Over/Under Betting Picks - Props
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-14)
Sunday, 10/31, 1 PM EST | O/U: 49
Going to keep it real simple with this one. Josh Allen has thrown for three or more touchdowns in three of the six games the Bills have played so far. Miami's secondary is really banged up right now, and have been getting shredded by opposing quarterbacks. The Dolphins have allowed 15 touchdowns to quarterbacks or 2.7 per game. While Allen will be missing his red zone threat, Dawson Knox, he still has Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders to feed, and I look for this to be a big day for the Bills' passing attack.
Pick: Josh Allen O2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120 BetMGM) 1 Unit
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