NFL Betting Picks for Week 5 (10/10/2021) - Spreads, Totals, and Moneylines

October 10, 2021

Steve Janik analyzes the 2021 Week 4 NFL schedule and recommends his favorite NFL picks. His analysis consists of key player and stat breakdowns, as well as recent performance and historical stat and trend data to help you make informed betting decisions, each and every week.

A solid 2-1 week in Week 4 and we had some nice wins. Dallas took care of business against a good Carolina team, but there was just no way the Cowboys were letting them have a chance in Jerry's World. Pittsburgh and Green Bay made us sweat, but overall that Steelers offense is in a dark place that they'll be easy to target moving forward. Minnesota on the other hand was somewhat of a let down for me. I really thought they'd give the Browns fits, and they started out looking great but then someone took the air out of the tires and they fell flat. Regardless, we'll take a winning week to get us back closer to to .500!

• 2021 Season: 4-8 (33%, -4u)
  • Spread: 3-1, +1.6u
  • Total:  1-5, -4u
  • Moneyline: 0-2, -1.6u
  • Props: 0-0

As of August, this is my fourth NFL season writing for RotoBaller and I couldn’t enjoy being a part of this amazing site with amazing writers and analysts. However, I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.

I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers

Sunday 10/10, 1PM EST | O/U: 45

After a handful of weeks, I think people are starting saying Jalen Hurts is going to lead the Eagles places. No, he's not a franchise quarterback, but his dual-threat ability is for real. The Oklahoma product has accounted for almost 1,200 yards passing with seven touchdown passes and 226 yards with a score on the ground. Oddly enough, the gameplan has abandoned the run with Miles Sanders and Kenny Gainwell the last two games with just 13 run plays involving the two backs. Philly will try to get the two backs involved more against a tough Panthers Defense, as losing by double digits two straight games is not a recipe for success. Defensively, this unit has a ton of work to do after allowing over 850 yards in the last two against Dallas and Kansas City.

Carolina was humbled a bit by the Cowboys in Week 4 (as I predicted), but that doesn't mean they aren't still an underdog NFC South contender. Sam Darnold is showing us things many expected after being drafted out of USC, but now he's being given the chance to thrive. He's rushed for five touchdowns already and has thrown for five more, but this offense hasn't exactly blown the doors off of their opponents. They've only eclipsed 400 yards of offense once and have yet to throw for 300 despite housing D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. The team is teasing there's a chance that Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) plays but if he doesn't go, expect Darnold to go for his first 300 yard game. On the defensive side, Carolina is on their way to being the most improved unit since 2020. They're ranked 4th in Defensive DVOA and while they gave up over 400 yards to Dallas, none of their first three opponents eclipsed over 252 yards. They are also tied fir first with 14 sacks, meaning they're going to pressure the young QB.

I locked this over in on Sunday after the 1pm slate of games thinking it was going to jump by Monday. Well, it bit me and went backwards, making it even better value for you as I still love this play at my number of 46.5. The Eagles are an impressive offense and while Carolina has no problems getting pressure, I look for Hurts to continue his successes running the ball and keeping the Panthers on their toes. **I played o46.5, but we'll take the number available to the public at this time of writing.

Pick: Over 45 (-110, Fanduel) 1 Unit

Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, 10/10, 4:05PM EST | O/U: 47.5

News was broken Thursday about Baker Mayfield dealing with a shoulder injury. Apparently he's been dealing with it for weeks but playing through it so it doesn't seem too major. However, it explains why the Browns have been over-emphasizing the run game (lead the NFL with 177 ypg). With guys like Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, they've always been "run-first," but this offense is run through them and it's working, so there's no need to stop. Defensively, the Browns are tied for the lead in the NFL with 14 sacks, but keep in mind nine of those came in the Week 3 game against Chicago; a statistical anomaly. Regardless, this defense is still good, ranking third overall in DVOA and first against the run.

There are some that believe the Chargers are the best team out of the AFC West and arguably the entire AFC. Justin Herbert has been solid through four weeks but hasn't needed to take over any games himself which speaks to the talent on this team at 3-1. His weapons in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are such an underrated duo in the NFL but both are having fantastic starts to 2021. The team got Austin Ekeler heavily involved in Week 4 against Las Vegas but they're going to have to mix things up against this stout Cleveland defense. On the defensive side, this secondary is real, holding their opponents to 251 yards or less in all four, but the front seven is the real issue, ranking 25th in DVOA and allowing around 140 ypg, and that's including just the 48 they gave up last week.

Cleveland won the three games they were supposed to win and gave Kansas City everything they had in Week 1 but fell short. Well, they're back to playing better opponents in the Chargers and traveling to the West Coast to do it. A little interesting number is that Cleveland is 0-7 facing a team from the AFC or NFC West since 2019 and I look to that to go to 0-8 on Sunday.

Pick: Chargers -2 (-110, Fanduel) 1 Unit

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5)

Sunday, 10/10, 4:25PM EST | O/U: 49

There were some saying Kliff Kingsbury might be fighting for his job without a big year in 2021. Well, so far so good for the the young skipper. They're 4-0 with decisive wins over Tennessee and the Los Angeles Rams and barely escaping with a win against the Vikings while also downing the Jaguars. Quarterback Kyler Murray is making a strong case for NFL MVP with 12 total touchdowns and leads one of the top passing units in the league. This unit has scored 31 points or more through the first four weeks and have gained over 400 yards in each game as well.

The 49ers defense has been banged up to start the year but through that, they've produced inconsistent results. Overall, they've faced average to elite offenses and have given up 28 or more in three of their four games. They've allowed over 100 yards rushing in every game and have just one total turnover and now with Josh Norman and K'Waun Williams banged up, this secondary could have some issues against a dynamic Arizona offense.

With one of the higher team totals of the week, I'm buying into the Arizona offense. Murray and company have had no issues moving the ball and four touchdowns seems about right against a defense that has yet to string together anything worth noting. Sure, you could look at the full game here, but there's just too many questions with the San Francisco offense.

Pick: Arizona Team Total Over 27.5  (+100 Draftkings) 1 Unit

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, 10/10, 1PM EST | O/U: 50

Throwing in a prop here for the first time this year. Aaron Rodgers has been nothing more than a game manager through the first four games this season and they haven't needed more. However, for a team that is looking to get everything out of the Hall of Famer that they can, I certainly expect the Packers to have Rodgers sling the rock more. This game is way too close of a spread, and if I was picking a side, I 'd take Green Bay. Although I'm not. I'm grabbing Rodgers at what I see as a value against an overrated defense. He hasn't thrown for over 253 yards this year, but threw for over 260 yards 10 times a season ago, and that should happen in Week 5 on the road against Cincy.

Pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 258.5 Passing Yards  (-115 Draftkings) .5 Unit

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