March 2, 2018

Drake Peaugh looks at two intriguing NBA matchups and some low cost DFS sleeper options for fantasy basketball's Week 20 (March 3rd and March 4th).

Hey Which is better, Harden’s disrespectful, “I just did that to you” stare to Wesley Johnson as he drills a 3-ball and asks for a cleanup in aisle “13”, or Lebron’s, “I may be 33, but watch me KaioKen x10 right quick with this behind-the-back, through the legs, left-handed, parallel to the backboard, layup.... with an AND1?

What does this have to do with the Weekend Dumpster Dive, it doesn’t matter. But let’s get to what matters, there is one game on the weekend slate that I like and people may not be very high on it! I will also give some recognition to low-value, high-potential players that could help your lineups big time! I’m looking at you Luol Deng! (Kidding...I think...)

Intriguing Games of the Weekend

Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies - March 2, 2018, 8:00pm ET

Memphis is not the same defensive team they have been in year’s past. Arguably considered one of the best, toughest defenses in the league for the past 4-5 seasons (especially when they had Tony Allen and Zach Randolph), they have really lost their luster. They are currently ranked 19th in Defensive Efficiency, and are the slowest team in the league according to PACE. They go up against a Denver team that is middle of the pack in PACE, 17th, and is sixth best in the league in Offensive Efficiency.

Your first thought may be “blowout potential” because of Denver’s efficient, mildly quick offense, versus a bottom-of-the-barrel defense, and very slow team. While this is a possibility, it is very unlikely. And that is because Denver does not play great defense either. They currently are tied 24th in the league in Defensive Efficiency.

“Well Drake, DraftKings and other sites show Denver doesn’t allow guards to score a lot of fantasy points!” My rebuttal, “somewhat misleading”. Denver and Jamal Murray defense versus PG’s, for DFS purposes, show an average of being fifth worst in the league in fantasy points allowed to the position. This is an average amongst five prominent DFS sites, (FanDuel, DraftKings, FantasyDraft, Yahoo, and Fanball). Here is Denver’s fantasy points allowed average ranking per position:

PG-25th
SG-6th
SF-9th (skewed by Fanball who had this position near worst in league while others averaged out to top five best defensively.)
PF-17th
C-13th

As you can see, you attack the PG position, and you can go after the PF and C positions as well. This matchup helps Memphis as they have arguably a top 10 center in the league in Marc Gasol, and some young, capable PF’s in JaMychal Green and Jarell Martin who can shoot reasonably well, and are strong rebounders. Memphis has also seen an uptick in performance by Andrew Harrison. In his last five games, he has averaged 17.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, and five assists. This has put him over 30 fantasy points per night amongst primary DFS sites FanDuel and DraftKings. However, look out for his wrist injury that has him questionable for tonight. If he is out, look for Mario Chalmers, Kobi Simmons, and Wayne Selden Jr. to pick up extra minutes.

On the Denver side of the ball, they are sharing the love all over the place. Perfect example is their last game versus the LA Clippers. Yes, it was a huge blown lead, and a loss, but the scoring tells you all you need to know. Their starting five had 18, 18, 18, 19, and 23 points. Gary Harris led the way with those 23.

Shots taken, Nicola Jokic was the low man by going 4-5, but he went 8-8 from the charity stripe. Everyone other starter hit seven shots, while taking no more than 15. Hell, even Paul Millsap, who’s been out since mid-November, played 23 minutes off the bench, took 10 shots, and contributed big time in every category.

Expect the continued share of the rock to take place the remainder of the season. It will make this team a  headache of who’s going to lead them nightly in fantasy scoring, but it may also eventually showcase some consistency in distribution, usage, and shots taken.

Versus Memphis, you target their guards, especially since they are not very healthy in that position. I like Will Barton, Gary Harris, and Jamal Murray to do well tonight. I expect them all to be safe plays for cash, with Barton or Murray having a bigger upside for GPP’s because they both have good assists numbers.

NBA Dumpster Dive

Now for the Dumpster-Dives of the Weekend! These are low-cost players that will offer potential value when filling out lineups around star players.

Justice Winslow
Norman Powell
Pascal Siakam
Jakob Poeltl
Robert Covington
DJ Augustin
Mike Muscala
Jae Crowder
Isaiah Taylor
Mario Chalmers
Cristiano Felicio
Kyle O’Quinn
Marco Belinelli
Courtney Lee
CJ Miles
Troy Daniels
Shabazz Muhammad
Noah Vonleh
Joe Young
Manu Ginobili
Josh Jackson
Vince Carter
Dante Cunningham
Caris LaVert
Marvin Williams

Thanks for taking the time to read this article. I hope it helps you win some cold, hard cash! If you want to reach out and say hello, follow me on Twitter @DrakePFSA.

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