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MLB Hitter Cheat Sheet (4/21/16): Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Picks

It doesn't take an expert to tell you to play Bryce Harper against right-handed pitching. It is much more difficult, however, to sift through the cheap DFS options for the right value plays that can help you fit in the studs you want and put your lineup over the top.

That is the purpose of this article -- to provide you with the best DFS value hitters available each day. Consider this your MLB hitters cheat sheet for sneaky DFS lineup picks.

Today I'll be bringing you five value hitters for daily fantasy baseball games on FanDuel and DraftKings for April 21st, 2016. Let's get started!

 

DFS Hitters - Lineup Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings

1. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals

FanDuel Price: $3,600; DraftKings Price: $3,900

Moustakas and the Royals have the highest implied team total today, as Vegas expect them to get to Mike Pelfrey early and often. Hitting second in the order, the man they call "Moose" is in prime position to be a big part of the potential scoring barrage.

This matchup lines up very nicely for Moose from a statistical perspective, too. Pelfrey posted a 4.59 SIERA last year, and allowed a higher slugging percentage, wOBA, fly-ball percentage, and walk rate to lefties, while striking them out less often.

Moose has improved numbers against righties throughout his career, especially at home, where he has a significantly higher slugging percentage, ISO, wOBA, fly-ball rate, and hard-hit rate. Speaking of hard-hit rate, Moose has posted an absurd 43.2 percent hard-hit rate so far this season, while also having the highest average exit velocity on his batted balls among third basemen, at 94.3 miles per hour.

Quite simply, the lefty is crushing the ball right now. It's only a matter of time until those hard-hit balls start turning into more extra-base hits -- and, consequently, fantasy points. Against a weak right-handed opponent, that time could come tonight. Load up on Moose in tournaments tonight.

 

2. Kendrys Morales, 1B, Kansas City Royals

FanDuel Price: $3,300, DraftKings Price: $4,000

Similar to Moustakas, Morales will benefit from facing a weak right-hander and hitting in the heart of Kansas City's lineup.

Morales is a switch hitter but will be hitting from the left side against Pelfrey today. Last season, Morales raised his slugging percentage from .412 to .538 against righties, while also raising his ISO from .113 to .254. Morales' hard-hit rate rose to 38.3 percent against righties last year too. All of these stats used in conjunction offer an easy explanation as to why Morales hit 18 of his 22 home runs against right-handed pitchers last season.

It won't be easy to pass up on Chris Davis' upside tonight, but Morales is a crucial part to any Royals stack you make tonight.

 

3. Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

FanDuel Price: $3,500, DraftKings Price: $3,800

Polanco's progression this season has been pure awesomeness for the truthers who have stuck with the prospect through his first couple seasons. Particularly, his career-high 34.1 percent hard-hit rate sticks out, as do his ridiculous walk-to-strikeout ratio numbers. After posting an 8.4 percent walk rate last season, Polanco's walk-rate currently sits at 21 percent, while his strikeout rate is down to 12.9 percent. Obviously, it is a small sample size. But, strikeout rate and walk rate are the most quickly normalizing stats for hitters, so Polanco's improved plate discipline is certainly indicative of an improved hitter.

I almost got so carried away gushing about Polanco that I forgot to tell you why he's such a great play today. Sorry about that!

Polanco will face off against James Shields, who can still pass as a respectable pitcher against right-handed batters, but is beaten to a pulp by lefties. Last season, lefties posted a .522 slugging percentage against Shields, as opposed to righties' .376 mark. He also allowed lefties to post superior ISO, wOBA, walk rate, and fly-ball rates, while striking out less often.

Polanco, a lefty, has some pretty fun splits himself. In his career, Polanco has raised his slugging percentage from .258 against lefties to a robust .406 mark against righties. He's also seen improvement in his ISO, wOBA, walk rate, fly-ball rate, and hard-hit rate against righties, while striking out less often. It won't be easy to pass on some of the elite outfielders in terrific spots tonight, but Polanco comes at a discounted price and ownership.

 

4. Colby Rasmus, OF, Houston Astros

FanDuel Price: $3,500, DraftKings Price: $3,900

Rasmus should always be on your radar when he faces a weak right-hander as he does today. A.J. Griffin has a 5.97 SIERA this season and a 4.02 career SIERA. Vegas thinks that Houston will take advantage of Griffin's struggles on the mound, projecting them for the highest total behind the Royals.

Rasmus sports a career .338 wOBA and .212 ISO against right-handed pitchers and is coming off a 2015 season in which he posted a .339 wOBA (the third-best of his career) and a career-high .236 ISO. He has a 46.0 percent fly ball rate through his career, and with this favorable matchup, Rasmus offers strong home run upside.

He should be a big part of any offensive fireworks the Astros put on today, hitting cleanup. Target him in tournaments, where his risk/reward nature is more well-suited.

 

5. Starlin Castro, 2B, New York Yankees

FanDuel Price: $3,200, DraftKings Price: $3,200

Rich Hill will be charged with quieting the Yankees' bats tonight, and given his 4.15 SIERA last season, I don't see that going over too well. Hill, a lefty, has struggled with righties in his career, allowing higher numbers across the board.

Castro has hit lefties better in his career, posting a higher slugging percentage and wOBA against lefties, while striking out less and walking more. He's also posted a career 29.8 percent hard-hit rate against lefties, up from 26 percent against lefties.

He normally hits out of the two-hole against lefties, and should be in line for solid production at a cheap cost against the easy-to-pick-on Rich Hill.

 

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