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Jacob Gibbs's MLB DFS hitters for 4/19/16 - daily fantasy baseball cheat sheet and lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings GPPs and cash games.
It doesn't take an expert to tell you to play Bryce Harper against right-handed pitching. It is much more difficult, however, to sift through the cheap options for the right value plays that can help you fit in the studs you want and put your lineup over the top.
That is the purpose of this article -- to provide you with the best value hitters available each day.
Today I'll be bringing you seven value hitters for MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball on FanDuel and DraftKings for April 19th, 2016. Let's get started!
DFS Hitters - Lineup Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings
1. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox
FanDuel Price: $4,100; DraftKings Price: $3,900
While Drew Smyly's career SIERA is a respectable 3.40, the lefty has struggled to contain right-handed bats throughout his career. He has allowed righties to post a higher slugging percentage, wOBA, and fly-ball rate than lefties, while also posting fewer strikeouts and more walks against righties.
Enter Xander Bogaerts, a right-handed batter who hits lefties far better than righties. Last season Bogaerts elevated his slugging percentage, ISO, wOBA, and hard-hit rate against lefties. He was even better at home, where he posted a .514 slugging percentage, .162 ISO, .406 wOBA, and 32.3 percent hard-hit rate against lefties.
Rostering Bogaerts is a terrific way to get exposure to Boston's large implied team total tonight.
2. George Springer, OF, Houston Astros
FanDuel Price: $3,700, DraftKings Price: $4,600
After a slow start, Springer has homered in back to back games. Fortunately for us, his FanDuel price hasn't caught up to his production yet. Even more fortunately, he gets a susceptible left-handed pitcher on the mound today in the form of Derek Holland.
Holland posted a 4.91 SIERA last season and gave up big numbers to right-handed batters. Most notably, he allowed his fly-ball rate to balloon from 20.7 percent against lefties to 38 percent against righties.
Springer, a righty, has a higher career slugging percentage, ISO, and wOBA against lefties than righties, while also boasting a career hard-hit rate of 42.1 percent against lefties.
3. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
FanDuel Price: $3,400, DraftKings Price: $3,400
Seager will look to get things rolling again tonight against Julio Teheran, who has struggled his way to a 6.35 ERA through three starts. Teheran wasn't much better last year, posting a 4.24 SIERA. He struggled specifically against lefties, who maintained a .507 slugging percentage against him.
This all bodes well for the hard-hitting left-handed shortstop. In his short career, Seager has posted an improved slugging percentage, ISO, wOBA, fly-ball rate, and hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He should have no problem with Teheran tonight.
4. Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox
FanDuel Price: $3,400, DraftKings Price: $4,800
Matt Shoemaker posted a respectable 3.98 SIERA last season, but his splits against right-handers offer plenty of reason for optimism for Abreu tonight.
Last season, Shoemaker saw his slugging percentage and wOBA against righties jump significantly. Combine that with the 40.5 percent fly-ball rate he allowed to righties, and Shoemaker could be in big trouble tonight.
Similar to his counterpart Shoemaker, Abreu posted some reverse-splits last year, hitting right-handed pitching much better than left-handed pitching. Against righties, he elevated his slugging percentage from .352 to .548, his ISO from .120 to .240, and his wOBA .288 to .384, which helps to explain why 27 of his 30 home runs came against right-handed pitching.
It's hard to trust him in anything but tournaments until he comes out of his slump, but if there is a time to buy-low on Abreu, the time is now. I wouldn't touch him at his price on DraftKings.
5. Kendrys Morales, 1B, Kansas City Royals
FanDuel Price: $3,100, DraftKings Price: $4,000
Morales' opponent on the mound today will be Shane Greene, who struggled against left-handed batters last season. Greene allowed lefties to hit for a higher slugging percentage and wOBA, while also walking more frequently.
Morales is a switch hitter, but will be hitting from the left side against Greene today. Last season, Morales raised his slugging percentage from .412 to .538 against righties, while also raising his ISO from .113 to .254. Morales' hard-hit rate rose to 38.3 percent against righties last year too. All of these stats used in conjunction offer an easy explanation as to why Morales hit 18 of his 22 home runs against right-handed pitchers last season.
6. Starlin Castro, 2B, New York Yankees
FanDuel Price: $3,000, DraftKings Price: $3,400
Castro's opponent on the mound today will be left-hander Eric Surkamp, who boasts a career 5.26 SIERA accross five seasons with four different teams.
Castro has hit lefties better in his career. He's posted a higher slugging percentage and wOBA against lefties, while striking out less and walking more. He's also posted a career 29.8 percent hard-hit rate against lefties, up from 26 percent against lefties.
7. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox
FanDuel Price: $2,900, DraftKings Price: $3,900
The other part of my favorite sneaky stack of the day, Pedroia is on a 10 game hitting streak and is very affordable on FanDuel.
Pedroia, a righty, will also benefit from Smyly's splits against right-handers. Much like Bogaerts, Pedroia really improved on his numbers against lefties last season -- especially at home. Check out Pedroia's home splits against lefties last year below:
| Dustin Pedroia | SLG | ISO | Hard% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs R | 0.431 | 0.134 | 22.9% | 0.343 |
| vs L | 0.473 | 0.198 | 35.5% | 0.358 |
| at Home vs L | 0.541 | 0.189 | 44.8% | 0.415 |
Pedroia should continue to be a consistent fantasy contributor -- he has at least six FanDuel points in six straight games -- and he has the potential for more tonight in an advantageous matchup against Smyly.
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