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Back to winning ways yesterday. I announced on Twitter I'd had enough of missing picks by one run or one strikeout so demanded the luck Gods removed their hex on me and it worked. Although the Brewers lost to the Reds despite outhitting them, the A's and Rangers hit the under as they played out a 3-2 ballgame. And as we correctly predicted, McClanahan came up short in the strikeout line to take home profit on a Friday. Let's hope the hex stays removed today as well.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Brua Tagovailoaić (@LucidMediaDFS) will be giving out the free picks during the week throughout the season, with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 2-5 (-2.52 U)
- O/U Record: 5-7-1 (-1.58 U)
- Runline Record: 1-4 (-2.42 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 5-12 (-5.12 U)
- Prop Record: 14-11 (+3.24 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 27-39-1 (-8.40 U)
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: STL +108, CHC -118
STL: Kwang Hyun Kim | CHC: Zach Davies
I know these two offenses have struggled recently but this line seems a little low. In eight games this month, the Cardinals have scored 33 runs (4.13 per game) while the Cubs have scored 36 in eight games (4.5 per game). The Cubs took game one of the series yesterday afternoon 10-5 and that was the second time this week they have scored double-digit runs in a game.
The Cardinals started Wade LeBlanc yesterday and I expect Kim to perform much better (albeit LeBlanc was only responsible for three of the runs in three innings of work). Kim has a 3.39 ERA on the season from 14 starts (66.1 IP) although his xERA (4.33), xFIP (4.56) and SIERA (4.72) all suggest regression is coming. This will be Kim's first time facing the Cubs this year and he'll be hoping to match his season-high seven innings he completed last time out. That could be especially important given the Cardinals used seven relievers yesterday.
Davies has had an up and down season so far. He comes into this game with a 4.28 ERA but similarly to Kim, his underlying numbers suggest things will get worse moving forward. He has a 6.22 xERA, 5.36 xFIP and 5.71 SIERA. Given his lack of strikeouts, he does rely on soft contact so the underlying numbers will generally be worse than his actual ERA but they are all currently career highs. His last three starts have totaled 15.0 IP and he's only allowed four earned runs but his start prior to those was an eight-run blow-up over six innings against the Marlins.
Both teams' bullpens have been ok in recent weeks despite them combining for ten of the runs scored yesterday in just 7.2 IP. The Cardinals bullpen has a 4.47 ERA since June 01st (17th best in MLB) while the Cubs relievers have combined for 4.34 ERA (10th best).
For the Cubs, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez both started yesterday after recent injury issues and while Kris Bryant didn't make the starting lineup, he pinch-hit a three-run double so appears healthy enough to start today. That will be key for a Cubs offense that ranks tied-28th with the Cardinals in wRC+ (81) since June 01st. As mentioned though, both teams have been better in July with the Cubs 103 wRC+ ranking 13th in MLB and the Cardinals 95 wRC+ ranking 19th.
I'd edge towards the Cardinals to win with Kim proving to be the more consistent starter of the two. But the Cubs' offense has been better than the Cardinals of late and should be boosted by the probable return of Bryant to their starting lineup. The game looks like it may be a damp one but given only four of the 15 runs scored yesterday came from home runs, that shouldn't play a big enough factor in preventing the over from hitting.
Pick: Over/under - Over 7 total runs (+100) 1 Unit
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: LAA -105, SEA -105
LAA: Patrick Sandoval | SEA: Chris Flexen
The Angels are 20-12 since June 01st and are being pulled into Wildcard contention by Shohei Ohtani and his MLB leading 33 home runs. That has helped the Angels to a wRC+ of 127 since June 01st which is second-best in the Majors. The Mariners offense has a wRC+ of 101 in that time which is 18th best.
The Mariners took yesterday's game 7-3, having trailed 3-0 early and they didn't take the lead until Mitch Haniger hit the game-winning grand slam in the bottom of the eighth. It was a disappointing performance from the Angels bullpen which has a 4.46 since June 01st (16th in MLB) but that's still better than the Mariners relievers which have a 4.54 ERA (19th in MLB).
Flexen is having a good season after returning from the KBO with a 7-3 record and 3.80 ERA. He does have a 4.33 xERA, 4.40 xFIP and 4.53 SIERA so a sub-4.00 ERA might not be sustainable. He's only faced the Angels once back on April 30th when he gave up three earned runs in four innings.
Sandoval has been a solid starter for the Angels and has a 3.46 from his eight starts (41.2 IP). He faced the Mariners on June 06th and gave up just two earned runs in six innings and he's not allowed more than three runs in any start while completing five or more innings in each of his last seven starts.
The Angels will be keen to bounce back from the disappointing loss last night and I fancy them to continue their push to get back into contention for a playoff spot.
Pick: Moneyline - Los Angeles Angels (-105) 1 Unit
Prop Bet
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Caleb Smith has had a solid season for the Diamondbacks and since transitioning into a starter, has a 4.02 ERA from eight starts (2.70 ERA as a reliever). He's completed five innings in six of his last seven starts (his first start of the year came on April 03rd) and has completed six innings in two of his last three outings. Although he appears stretched out, it's difficult to envisage him going beyond six innings in a start right now. In 37.1 IP as a starter since returning to the role, he's tallied 40 strikeouts including five against the Dodgers on June 18th (from 6.0 IP).
The Dodgers have a 24.1% K% versus LHP this year which is the 11th highest in MLB but since June 01st, their K% against LHP is 22.1%, which is 14th best. Their BB% in that time is 9.3% which is tied-10th best and Smith has struggled for control with 18 walks in his 37.1 IP since moving into the starting rotation. Smith has walked three or more batters in four of his last five starts and despite only allowing one hit against the Dodgers when he faced them, he walked four. That could shorten Smith's outing, especially if the Dodgers put together even a few hits which could make it difficult for Smith to hit the over.
Pick: Smith under 5.5 Ks (-105) 1 Unit
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