RADIO
Melky Cabrera: A Questionable Past
Melky Cabrera will be joining his sixth team this spring after signing a three-year, $42 million dollar contract with the White Sox. Cabrera is coming off a good season with the Blue Jays in which he hit .301 with 16 HR and 73 RBI. His strong performance undoubtedly helped him to cash in as a free agent despite an injury hampered 2013 and PED suspension in 2012. Has the stigma of being a PED user worn off for Cabrera?
Cabrera is moving from one hitter's haven to another. According to ESPN’s MLB park factors, the Rogers Centre has a home run factor of 1.310 compared to 1.049 for U.S. Cellular Field. However, that's misleading because the “Cell” does have one park stat that is higher than the Rogers Centre - home run rate for left handed hitters. The Cell has a slight edge, 3.78% to 3.70%. Guess which side of the plate Cabrera hits more home runs? Yup, you guessed it, the left side. Cabrera hit 68% of his HR from the left side of the plate in 2014, and he has hit 64% from the left side in his career. So the move to Chicago may help him knock a couple more over the wall this year.
Cabrera will most likely bat second for the White Sox. He's a .292 career hitter in the two-hole and has more HR, RBI and R there than any other spot in the order. The White Sox received a miserable .237 average from their second hitters last season! They were still able to score 83 R from this spot as some guy named Jose Abreu hit behind them. With Abreu, Adam Laroche and Avisail Garcia able to drive in runs, Cabrera may come close to his career high of 102 runs.
2015 Sleeper & ADP Draft Value Pick
This move definitely looks good for Cabrera, add in the fact that he finished 65th (25th OF) on ESPN’s player rater in 2014, one would assume his current ADP would be reflective of this. Of course it's not as his current ADP in NFBC early drafts is 167 overall and 43rd for OF. If I can get him this late, I’m jumping at the chance. Let’s do the typical comparison of Player A and B:
| AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| Player A | .272 | 90 | 17 | 58 | 5 |
| Player B | .301 | 81 | 16 | 73 | 6 |
They are similar in HR, R and SB but player B has a big edge in AVG and RBI. Of course player B is Melky, but who is player A? It’s none other than Kole Calhoun, who is currently being drafted 73 spots ahead of Cabrera in early drafts and is the 25th OF off the board. I like Calhoun and he is a young player on the rise but I don’t think the disparities in ADP make sense.
In the first “expert” draft at the FSTA conference, Calhoun went in the 6th round and Cabrera went in the 15th. When I can get the same stats nine rounds later, I’m not reaching for Calhoun. I’d be happy getting Cabrera somewhere in the 10-12th round of 12 team leagues.
My 2015 Projection: .302 AVG, 19 HR, 81 RBI, 96 R
